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Capping total energy usage is not realistic. It's never happened in human history. It's not going to happen in the future. No one in any position of power has e
by rsj_hn 5y ago
Capping total energy usage is not realistic. It's never happened in human history. It's not going to happen in the future. No one in any position of power has even proposed it.
You are putting your head in the sand if you think that this is what will happen.
GDP will grow. Energy usage per capita will grow. Technology will increase. Output and consumption will increase. That is what we do, as a species, as we try to improve our condition. Trying to say that "oh, we'll just stop and cap energy use" is not only unrealistic, but it's impossible to achieve, because any nation that does that will just be outcompeted by rival nations that don't. Then people will flee to the sane nation while the insane nation collapses.
I get that some people on the green fringe don't like industrialization, but opposing rising living standards, rising output, all of which require rising energy usage, is always a losing proposition.
- dane-pgp 5y ago> Capping total energy usage is not realistic. It's never happened in human history. In a sense, it has happened, but not in the form of an explicit mandate but just due to pre-existing technological and economic trends. Here is a graph of "Primary Energy Consumption per capita" for various countries, showing that the EU, US, and Canada have all passed their peak: https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-018-0178-8/figures/3 https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s...
- jacquesm 5y agoCapping total energy usage is not only realistic, if you're under 35 you will see it in your lifetime unless fusion becomes a reality.
- rsj_hn 5y agoI guarantee you that energy use is going to grow at about 3% per annum over the next 50 years. After that, it will most likely increase. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41433 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41433 If we discover cheap fusion, that number will go up. Oh, and people will still be eating beef, driving personal automobiles, flying planes, sending rockets into space, and powering factories, too.
- jacquesm 5y agoYour ability to predict the future must have made you a fortune.
- rsj_hn 5y agoI've done alright. But capital markets are usually much more sane than internet message boards, so it's not like there is a lot of financial opportunity by saying obvious things, it's only when you meet someone steeped in irreality that telling the truth becomes a radical act.