5 ms·

They probably will be, what will be (truly, materially) different?

Pet_Ant 5y ago
Anything and everything? 50 years people thought we’d have flying cars and unions. Who would have imagined all the automation? It is a world of work that was inconceivable to most people then.
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  50yr ago was 1971. People's takes on flying cars and unions were much more modern (less optimistic) at that time than they were say 70yr ago.
  - bobthepanda 5y ago
    Flying cars had mostly already proven to be impractical, but at that point there was at least some optimism in some areas left (like space) and the massive reality check that was the OPEC oil embargo had not happened yet.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
refurb 5y ago
A big part of older folks wealth is based on gains from housing. Do you think that will continue at the same pace and leave us with an inflation-adjusted doubling or tripling of home prices? Do you think migration trends into cities will continue unabated? Do you think US population growth which drives much of the housing market will continue?
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  I think as long as retiring folks keep their burn rates low and make it to the age where social security and Medicare kicks in, they’ll make it from there to death without a substantial reduction in quality of life (assuming non-crazy retirement burn rate). Reverse mortgages will be issued at today’s valuations, not forward looking. Those of us under 50 though? Much harder time ahead than this discussed cohort, all the juice has been squeezed and growth will be at a reduced rate as the population pyramid compresses.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- malandrew 5y ago
  I don’t see why I wouldn’t continue. Population is still steadily growing. What isn’t due to childbirth is being made up with immigration.
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
Worsening of the climate crisis, +1.5 degrees C by 2040: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566801-climate-report-warns-temps-to-rise-15-degrees-celsius-over-preindustrial-levels https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566801-climate... My guess is a big war over resources will happen, e.g. https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-risks-a-himalayan-water-war-with-india/ https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-risks-a-himalayan-water-... . Worsening of the climate refugee crisis, even within the US itself, with people moving from flooded (due to sea-level rise) or dried parts or burning parts of the country to other parts. Dry or burning California also can't supply food, in 2010 Russia stopped exporting grains after big forest fires, and the rise of food prices pissed of many people and led to the Arab Spring.

Anything and everything? 50 years people thought we’d have flying cars and unions. Who would have imagined all the automation? It is a world of work that was inconceivable to most people then.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
50yr ago was 1971. People's takes on flying cars and unions were much more modern (less optimistic) at that time than they were say 70yr ago.
- bobthepanda 5y ago
  Flying cars had mostly already proven to be impractical, but at that point there was at least some optimism in some areas left (like space) and the massive reality check that was the OPEC oil embargo had not happened yet.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

refurb 5y ago

A big part of older folks wealth is based on gains from housing. Do you think that will continue at the same pace and leave us with an inflation-adjusted doubling or tripling of home prices? Do you think migration trends into cities will continue unabated? Do you think US population growth which drives much of the housing market will continue?

toomuchtodo 5y ago
I think as long as retiring folks keep their burn rates low and make it to the age where social security and Medicare kicks in, they’ll make it from there to death without a substantial reduction in quality of life (assuming non-crazy retirement burn rate). Reverse mortgages will be issued at today’s valuations, not forward looking. Those of us under 50 though? Much harder time ahead than this discussed cohort, all the juice has been squeezed and growth will be at a reduced rate as the population pyramid compresses.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
malandrew 5y ago
I don’t see why I wouldn’t continue. Population is still steadily growing. What isn’t due to childbirth is being made up with immigration.

bellyfullofbac 5y ago

Worsening of the climate crisis, +1.5 degrees C by 2040: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566801-climate-report-warns-temps-to-rise-15-degrees-celsius-over-preindustrial-levels https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566801-climate... My guess is a big war over resources will happen, e.g. https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-risks-a-himalayan-water-war-with-india/ https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-risks-a-himalayan-water-... . Worsening of the climate refugee crisis, even within the US itself, with people moving from flooded (due to sea-level rise) or dried parts or burning parts of the country to other parts. Dry or burning California also can't supply food, in 2010 Russia stopped exporting grains after big forest fires, and the rise of food prices pissed of many people and led to the Arab Spring.