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Setting us up for a house price crash in ten to fifteen years, as the Boomers age into their years of disability and want to sell their houses so they can move

Setting us up for a house price crash in ten to fifteen years, as the Boomers age into their years of disability and want to sell their houses so they can move into "assisted living" / "sheltered" housing. It's really worth having a look at the charts in [1]. People are living longer (age at death is compressing to a peak around 90 years old), but there are still about 15 years of ill health before death. Since we know the age of the baby boomers, we can predict this crash. 1.Robine, Jean-Marie, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, September 2021. Ageing Populations: We are living longer lives, but are we healthier? UN Ref: UN DESA/POP/2021/TP/NO.2. Downloaded from https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/ https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/ on 11 Oct 2021.

rsj_hn 5y ago
> Setting us up for a house price crash in ten to fifteen years, as the Boomers age into their years of disability and want to sell their houses so they can move into "assisted living" / "sheltered" housing. I'm really not sure where you are getting your numbers. Only 4.5% of seniors live in assisted living facilities. Most people will never set foot in one -- they will live independently up until they die, possibly spending a few weeks in hospice if things drag out. With new tech it is even easier now to live on your own -- e.g. you can order things delivered, there is telemedicine, grocery delivery, meal delivery, house cleaning services, uber, etc. Moreover you can now get little motors to take you up stairs, there are all sorts of automated appliances. The days of a large share of seniors needing to live in assisted living are long gone. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK51841/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK51841/
- tuatoru 5y ago
  Yes, I put that badly. But medical and living assistance costs go up steeply after 75, and many people will sell properties to pay for them.
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    For nursing homes, it's 1% for ages 65-74, 3% for 75-84 and 9% for persons age 85 and over. Half of all those in nursing homes are older than 85. For general expenses, there are reverse mortgages for this. But again, I'm not sure what difference it makes to sell the house before rather than after you die -- especially for really old people. It will go on the market either way. Even if you give the home to a child, they will either sell it, or move into it and sell their existing home. Either way, when someone dies, the demand for housing decreases by 1. So declining populations do lead to cheaper housing (which is a good thing in places where housing is expensive).

rsj_hn 5y ago

> Setting us up for a house price crash in ten to fifteen years, as the Boomers age into their years of disability and want to sell their houses so they can move into "assisted living" / "sheltered" housing. I'm really not sure where you are getting your numbers. Only 4.5% of seniors live in assisted living facilities. Most people will never set foot in one -- they will live independently up until they die, possibly spending a few weeks in hospice if things drag out. With new tech it is even easier now to live on your own -- e.g. you can order things delivered, there is telemedicine, grocery delivery, meal delivery, house cleaning services, uber, etc. Moreover you can now get little motors to take you up stairs, there are all sorts of automated appliances. The days of a large share of seniors needing to live in assisted living are long gone. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK51841/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK51841/

tuatoru 5y ago
Yes, I put that badly. But medical and living assistance costs go up steeply after 75, and many people will sell properties to pay for them.
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  For nursing homes, it's 1% for ages 65-74, 3% for 75-84 and 9% for persons age 85 and over. Half of all those in nursing homes are older than 85. For general expenses, there are reverse mortgages for this. But again, I'm not sure what difference it makes to sell the house before rather than after you die -- especially for really old people. It will go on the market either way. Even if you give the home to a child, they will either sell it, or move into it and sell their existing home. Either way, when someone dies, the demand for housing decreases by 1. So declining populations do lead to cheaper housing (which is a good thing in places where housing is expensive).