5 ms·

Sometimes I have to think about the Wright brothers. In most today's societies there is no way to be like those brothers. Everything is so heavy regulated to av

by tdrdt 5y ago

Sometimes I have to think about the Wright brothers. In most today's societies there is no way to be like those brothers. Everything is so heavy regulated to avoid risk that no risk can be taken. Maybe this is why China will succeed to be the first to have level 5 self driving.

gremloni 5y ago
I think Tesla will get there first purely because Elon Musk is smart and ballsy enough to just go ahead and do it though it may not be entirely safe. It is what it takes to get innovation through this system. I’m personally blown away by the difference between FSD v8 and the current v10.2
- tdrdt 5y ago
  Tesla's level 2 FSD is still behind companies that are already at level 4.
  - gremloni 5y ago
    Which companies? Only one I know of is Waymo.
    - tdrdt 5y ago
      Mobileye for example. I believe this is an Intel company.
      - the-dude 5y ago
        And it was a Tesla supplier.
      - mensetmanusman 5y ago
        Where can I order my level 4 mobile eye car?
        tdrdt 5y ago
        This is not the point. But you can order any modern car, place the sensors and let Mobileye control the car. Udelv Ink is planning to implement it in 36000 delivery vehicles. You can also buy a level 4 shuttle from Navya if you like.
  - tdrdt 5y ago
    Some people downvote my comment and I assume this is because they don't think Tesla is at level 2. But Tesla's own legal department stated this about FSD beta.
foepys 5y ago
The Wright brothers only endangered themselves. Autonomous vehicles endanger everybody around them. If electric, those vehicles weigh well over 2 tonnes and have the potential to kill people even inside other vehicles. "Some of you may die but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make" is not a good motto.
- renewiltord 5y ago
  We don’t allow people to hurt themselves. Sometimes it is only through violation of these ethical norms that we get progress: cardiac catheterization is the classic example.
  - krisoft 5y ago
    > We don’t allow people to hurt themselves. Of course we do. You can go to a grocery store and buy plenty sugary drinks to kill yourself slowly. Or you can buy a car and drive full speed into a wall. Or you can join a fitness cult and excercise so much you die from it. Or to stay at topic you can build your own airplane. The unnoficial motto of the faa experimental regulations is that everyone is entitled to pick their own funeral. The regulations are not designed to keep you safe, but to keep others safe.
    - renewiltord 5y ago
      Hmm, this is a fair point. We allow people to hurt themselves in certain ways. There is most definitely some threshold above which we make it illegal but I can’t tell what the threshold is. It’s not “risk of death” because BASE jumping would be outlawed then. But it’s clear we do this “for your own good” falsely often.
- tdrdt 5y ago
  But China is a country that is different. I can imagine they take some accidents for granted when they can be the number one in the world. Because that will be good for the whole country.
zpeti 5y ago
They literally let a satellite crash to earth without knowing where it will land, worldwide. So yeah, their risk tolerance is probably higher :)
- SapporoChris 5y ago
  Skylab https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab fell to the earth without precise knowledge of where it would land.
  - zpeti 5y ago
    Yeah, in 1973. The US and the west is unrecognisable now in terms of risk tolerance IMO.
yorwba 5y ago
You might want to actually read some of the regulations that need to be complied with to run a self-driving trial in Beijing http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengcefagui/202102/W020210203384556285539.pdf http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengcefagui/202102/W02021... before jumping to the conclusion that an absence of regulation will lead to faster technological progress.
inglor_cz 5y ago
Arguably, the private space sector is modern equivalent of the Wright brothers. The regulations do not seem to be as onerous as to prevent founding of new companies such as RocketLab or Astra.
bigger_inside 5y ago
exactly. corporate capitalism killed innovation; the poisons are liability, intellectual property, and monopolization in tech that uses the first two in the starting lanes to stop competition, and buyouts if competition makes it to the finish lane.
YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
Note: >> The vast majority of robotaxi operations use safety drivers. Driverless robotaxis trials have emerged in the last year and will grow. Driverless robotaxis have teleoperation-based remote operation as a backup for a safety driver. In terms of your analogy that's as if the Wright brothers only "flew" in the sense that Orvil carried Wilbur on his back while Wilbur flapped his arms and yelled "I'm flying!". Western efforts aren't any better. It's not regulation that's keeping anything back. It's the lack of a clear path towards convincing "autonomous" technology.
HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago
Huh? Does this change your mind? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fqofZWMJpk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fqofZWMJpk

by tdrdt 5y ago

gremloni 5y ago

I think Tesla will get there first purely because Elon Musk is smart and ballsy enough to just go ahead and do it though it may not be entirely safe. It is what it takes to get innovation through this system. I’m personally blown away by the difference between FSD v8 and the current v10.2

tdrdt 5y ago
Tesla's level 2 FSD is still behind companies that are already at level 4.
- gremloni 5y ago
  Which companies? Only one I know of is Waymo.
  - tdrdt 5y ago
    Mobileye for example. I believe this is an Intel company.
    - the-dude 5y ago
      And it was a Tesla supplier.
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      Where can I order my level 4 mobile eye car?
      - tdrdt 5y ago
        This is not the point. But you can order any modern car, place the sensors and let Mobileye control the car. Udelv Ink is planning to implement it in 36000 delivery vehicles. You can also buy a level 4 shuttle from Navya if you like.
- tdrdt 5y ago
  Some people downvote my comment and I assume this is because they don't think Tesla is at level 2. But Tesla's own legal department stated this about FSD beta.

foepys 5y ago

The Wright brothers only endangered themselves. Autonomous vehicles endanger everybody around them. If electric, those vehicles weigh well over 2 tonnes and have the potential to kill people even inside other vehicles. "Some of you may die but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make" is not a good motto.

renewiltord 5y ago
We don’t allow people to hurt themselves. Sometimes it is only through violation of these ethical norms that we get progress: cardiac catheterization is the classic example.
- krisoft 5y ago
  > We don’t allow people to hurt themselves. Of course we do. You can go to a grocery store and buy plenty sugary drinks to kill yourself slowly. Or you can buy a car and drive full speed into a wall. Or you can join a fitness cult and excercise so much you die from it. Or to stay at topic you can build your own airplane. The unnoficial motto of the faa experimental regulations is that everyone is entitled to pick their own funeral. The regulations are not designed to keep you safe, but to keep others safe.
  - renewiltord 5y ago
    Hmm, this is a fair point. We allow people to hurt themselves in certain ways. There is most definitely some threshold above which we make it illegal but I can’t tell what the threshold is. It’s not “risk of death” because BASE jumping would be outlawed then. But it’s clear we do this “for your own good” falsely often.
tdrdt 5y ago
But China is a country that is different. I can imagine they take some accidents for granted when they can be the number one in the world. Because that will be good for the whole country.

zpeti 5y ago

They literally let a satellite crash to earth without knowing where it will land, worldwide. So yeah, their risk tolerance is probably higher :)

SapporoChris 5y ago
Skylab https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab fell to the earth without precise knowledge of where it would land.
- zpeti 5y ago
  Yeah, in 1973. The US and the west is unrecognisable now in terms of risk tolerance IMO.

yorwba 5y ago

You might want to actually read some of the regulations that need to be complied with to run a self-driving trial in Beijing http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengcefagui/202102/W020210203384556285539.pdf http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengcefagui/202102/W02021... before jumping to the conclusion that an absence of regulation will lead to faster technological progress.

inglor_cz 5y ago

Arguably, the private space sector is modern equivalent of the Wright brothers. The regulations do not seem to be as onerous as to prevent founding of new companies such as RocketLab or Astra.

bigger_inside 5y ago

exactly. corporate capitalism killed innovation; the poisons are liability, intellectual property, and monopolization in tech that uses the first two in the starting lanes to stop competition, and buyouts if competition makes it to the finish lane.

YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago

Note: >> The vast majority of robotaxi operations use safety drivers. Driverless robotaxis trials have emerged in the last year and will grow. Driverless robotaxis have teleoperation-based remote operation as a backup for a safety driver. In terms of your analogy that's as if the Wright brothers only "flew" in the sense that Orvil carried Wilbur on his back while Wilbur flapped his arms and yelled "I'm flying!". Western efforts aren't any better. It's not regulation that's keeping anything back. It's the lack of a clear path towards convincing "autonomous" technology.

HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago

Huh? Does this change your mind? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fqofZWMJpk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fqofZWMJpk