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Seriously - Bitcoin is more than 8% up today and about 50% up compared to 3 weeks ago. It's almost back to the all-time high from April. How does anyone explain

by jstx1 5y ago

Seriously - Bitcoin is more than 8% up today and about 50% up compared to 3 weeks ago. It's almost back to the all-time high from April. How does anyone explain any of this?

ur-whale 5y ago
> How does anyone explain any of this? Suppose you hold a big bunch of USDT (Tethers) right now. What would be be doing in light of these news? Exactly.
- osense 5y ago
  Why not just convert to USDC / BUSD / some other stablecoin?
  - webinvest 5y ago
    Or Dai or Gemeni Dollars?
  - Jasper_ 5y ago
    How do you convert if nobody wants to buy your USDT?
timerol 5y ago
Bitcoin's price "in USD" makes more sense as a price "in USDT". It's completely unsurprising that Bitcoin went up relative to USDT after this news. The big question is when the peg of 1 USDT ~= 1 USD (or USDC) is going to break. Tether is going to do everything they can to maintain that peg as long as possible.
- xur17 5y ago
  > The big question is when the peg of 1 USDT ~= 1 USD (or USDC) is going to break. Tether is going to do everything they can to maintain that peg as long as possible. Yuup. Assuming USDT is a fraud, Tether likely makes very good money off of it, and is hence HEAVILY incentivized to keep it running as long as possible. I'd be very curious to hear theories as to what might cause it to collapse.
  - adflux 5y ago
    Complaints by companies trying to exchange usdt to usd
    - xur17 5y ago
      But those companies would only complain if Tether stopped redemptions, which presumably would only occur if they ran out of cash. You'd need some other outside impetus to trigger it all.
arcticbull 5y ago
A complete lack of regulation in the markets.
leesec 5y ago
I can explain - More people want to buy than sell
- ac29 5y ago
  Thats not really how it works - every transaction must have a buyer and a seller. When prices go up, buyers are simply willing to go deeper into the order book to get their orders filled.
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    More simply, more money (not people) is buying than is selling.
webinvest 5y ago
I could tell you, but because this information could reduce my purchasing power, I’m choosing to keep quiet. I’m not willing to share the short/medium term philosophy, catalysts, and predictable patterns. But I’ll reshare the long term philosophy since I’ve already written about it 4 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27202204 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27202204 If you’re smart and knowledgeable, you may be able to piece it out from my comment history.
hackingforfun 5y ago
It looks like a Bitcoin futures ETF is nearing approval and could go live next week [1][2]. My guess is that people are pricing that in. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/bitcoin-etfs-may-finally-make-their-debut-sort-of.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/bitcoin-etfs-may-finally-mak... [2] https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1449010847074897933 https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1449010847074897933

by jstx1 5y ago

Seriously - Bitcoin is more than 8% up today and about 50% up compared to 3 weeks ago. It's almost back to the all-time high from April. How does anyone explain any of this?

ur-whale 5y ago

> How does anyone explain any of this? Suppose you hold a big bunch of USDT (Tethers) right now. What would be be doing in light of these news? Exactly.

osense 5y ago
Why not just convert to USDC / BUSD / some other stablecoin?
- webinvest 5y ago
  Or Dai or Gemeni Dollars?
- Jasper_ 5y ago
  How do you convert if nobody wants to buy your USDT?

timerol 5y ago

Bitcoin's price "in USD" makes more sense as a price "in USDT". It's completely unsurprising that Bitcoin went up relative to USDT after this news. The big question is when the peg of 1 USDT ~= 1 USD (or USDC) is going to break. Tether is going to do everything they can to maintain that peg as long as possible.

xur17 5y ago
> The big question is when the peg of 1 USDT ~= 1 USD (or USDC) is going to break. Tether is going to do everything they can to maintain that peg as long as possible. Yuup. Assuming USDT is a fraud, Tether likely makes very good money off of it, and is hence HEAVILY incentivized to keep it running as long as possible. I'd be very curious to hear theories as to what might cause it to collapse.
- adflux 5y ago
  Complaints by companies trying to exchange usdt to usd
  - xur17 5y ago
    But those companies would only complain if Tether stopped redemptions, which presumably would only occur if they ran out of cash. You'd need some other outside impetus to trigger it all.

arcticbull 5y ago

A complete lack of regulation in the markets.

leesec 5y ago

I can explain - More people want to buy than sell

ac29 5y ago
Thats not really how it works - every transaction must have a buyer and a seller. When prices go up, buyers are simply willing to go deeper into the order book to get their orders filled.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  More simply, more money (not people) is buying than is selling.

webinvest 5y ago

I could tell you, but because this information could reduce my purchasing power, I’m choosing to keep quiet. I’m not willing to share the short/medium term philosophy, catalysts, and predictable patterns. But I’ll reshare the long term philosophy since I’ve already written about it 4 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27202204 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27202204 If you’re smart and knowledgeable, you may be able to piece it out from my comment history.

hackingforfun 5y ago

It looks like a Bitcoin futures ETF is nearing approval and could go live next week [1][2]. My guess is that people are pricing that in. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/bitcoin-etfs-may-finally-make-their-debut-sort-of.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/bitcoin-etfs-may-finally-mak... [2] https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1449010847074897933 https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1449010847074897933