4 ms·

A candid quote from a virologist in a recent Nature covid paper: "We’re flying by the seat of our pants trying to figure this stuff out." https://www.nature.co

A candid quote from a virologist in a recent Nature covid paper: "We’re flying by the seat of our pants trying to figure this stuff out." https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02795-x https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02795-x

nuerow 5y ago
> A candid quote from a virologist in a recent Nature covid paper: "We’re flying by the seat of our pants trying to figure this stuff out." I really don't know what you were trying to say. The article you linked was about how those who have previously recovered from COVID-19 have a stronger immune response after being vaccinated than those who have never been infected.
- angelzen 5y ago
  It is not a partisan point in favor of one course of action or another. Though not surprising that it is read as one. We have barely started to understand long term implications of covid infection, mRNA / classic vaccines or various treatments. For example, we are almost a year after mass vaccination campaigns started. We still don't know if/how many boosters are required for optimal vaccine performance. Nobody can cite 5-year effectiveness number for mRNA vaccines, which are by far the most popular vaccines in the West. This should raise red flags to any critically thinking person. By necessity, we are operating in "faith" mode. And that's ok. Often times faith is a good enough action guide.
  - gfodor 5y ago
    We are operating on faith mode, but authoritarians are treating the situation increasingly as though we aren't. If you have to take a drug that still be proven to hurt specific subpopulations (as any drug could fairly be expected to in eg phase 4 trials) to get a job or go to the store, something is very wrong.
  - nuerow 5y ago
    > We have barely started to understand long term implications of covid infection (...) I fail to see the point of your remark, as it reads like a non-sequitur. I mean, the discussion was about the difference between those who listen to public health experts and the anti-intellectual covid denialists/anti-masks/anti-vaxers. Where do epistomological arguments lend any credence to anti-intellectual militants that try to counter science and public health safeguards with conspiracy theories?
    - angelzen 5y ago
      What is the 5 year effectiveness of the Pfizer covid vaccine? Please break it down by infection / symptomatic disease / hospitalization / death, then by age group, then compare it with a sizable unvaccinated control group.
      - gfodor 5y ago
        Also, what subpopulations in 5 years will be advised not to take the vaccine (such as those with certain chronic illnesses, pregnancy etc), or do so with specific safety protocols, as is the case for other vaccines given the long term understanding we have gleaned.
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
Relevance? Also, are there other procedures to be employed on a _novel_ virus pandemic? Doesn't the "novel" part literally mean "it's new to us and needs figuring out" ?
- gfodor 5y ago
  One big problem is that that the CDC and other authorities failed miserably at reminding the public that their guidance was often based on weak, but directional evidence. The net result given other dynamics was people taking it to be gospel or bullshit, and when reversals occurred it was memory holed by the former and taken as vindication by the latter.
geofft 5y ago
I am guessing you're trying to say that "flying by the seat of our pants" is somehow bad. (Maybe you're not and that sentence is just too short for me to understand what you mean, in which case I apologize.) But to expand this analogy, if you're in a plane in conditions nobody has seen before, where the pilots are desperately trying to save as many people as they can before they run out of fuel - do you want the pilot who is open to the reality of the situation and constantly learning new things, or the pilot who confidently follows the nearest checklist without asking if it even works? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines_Flight_232 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines_Flight_232
- angelzen 5y ago
  I merely expect said pilots to not pretend 'we are flying according to time tested FAA rules and regulations'.

nuerow 5y ago

> A candid quote from a virologist in a recent Nature covid paper: "We’re flying by the seat of our pants trying to figure this stuff out." I really don't know what you were trying to say. The article you linked was about how those who have previously recovered from COVID-19 have a stronger immune response after being vaccinated than those who have never been infected.

angelzen 5y ago
It is not a partisan point in favor of one course of action or another. Though not surprising that it is read as one. We have barely started to understand long term implications of covid infection, mRNA / classic vaccines or various treatments. For example, we are almost a year after mass vaccination campaigns started. We still don't know if/how many boosters are required for optimal vaccine performance. Nobody can cite 5-year effectiveness number for mRNA vaccines, which are by far the most popular vaccines in the West. This should raise red flags to any critically thinking person. By necessity, we are operating in "faith" mode. And that's ok. Often times faith is a good enough action guide.
- gfodor 5y ago
  We are operating on faith mode, but authoritarians are treating the situation increasingly as though we aren't. If you have to take a drug that still be proven to hurt specific subpopulations (as any drug could fairly be expected to in eg phase 4 trials) to get a job or go to the store, something is very wrong.
- nuerow 5y ago
  > We have barely started to understand long term implications of covid infection (...) I fail to see the point of your remark, as it reads like a non-sequitur. I mean, the discussion was about the difference between those who listen to public health experts and the anti-intellectual covid denialists/anti-masks/anti-vaxers. Where do epistomological arguments lend any credence to anti-intellectual militants that try to counter science and public health safeguards with conspiracy theories?
  - angelzen 5y ago
    What is the 5 year effectiveness of the Pfizer covid vaccine? Please break it down by infection / symptomatic disease / hospitalization / death, then by age group, then compare it with a sizable unvaccinated control group.
    - gfodor 5y ago
      Also, what subpopulations in 5 years will be advised not to take the vaccine (such as those with certain chronic illnesses, pregnancy etc), or do so with specific safety protocols, as is the case for other vaccines given the long term understanding we have gleaned.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

Relevance? Also, are there other procedures to be employed on a _novel_ virus pandemic? Doesn't the "novel" part literally mean "it's new to us and needs figuring out" ?

gfodor 5y ago
One big problem is that that the CDC and other authorities failed miserably at reminding the public that their guidance was often based on weak, but directional evidence. The net result given other dynamics was people taking it to be gospel or bullshit, and when reversals occurred it was memory holed by the former and taken as vindication by the latter.

geofft 5y ago

I am guessing you're trying to say that "flying by the seat of our pants" is somehow bad. (Maybe you're not and that sentence is just too short for me to understand what you mean, in which case I apologize.) But to expand this analogy, if you're in a plane in conditions nobody has seen before, where the pilots are desperately trying to save as many people as they can before they run out of fuel - do you want the pilot who is open to the reality of the situation and constantly learning new things, or the pilot who confidently follows the nearest checklist without asking if it even works? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines_Flight_232 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines_Flight_232

angelzen 5y ago
I merely expect said pilots to not pretend 'we are flying according to time tested FAA rules and regulations'.