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I've been in Alberta my entire life and seen the boom and bust cycle (partially from inside oil and gas software companies), but this cycle in particular is dif

I've been in Alberta my entire life and seen the boom and bust cycle (partially from inside oil and gas software companies), but this cycle in particular is different. While I have been very successful in my life as an Albertan (two sweat exits so far, one more likely), it has been entirely because I sought work and built startups remotely from 2006 onward in other regions. There's no guarantee the economy will recover at this point, and if it does, the likelihood of hitting the 2008 highs is vanishingly small. There's no plan and has never been a plan to manage the resources of the province, so even the hint of a boom will distort wages up and down the ecosystem for a short period, followed by the waves of layoffs once that hint disappears and massive damage to every industry in the province. I joined the board of the Alberta tech ecosystem for a term in the late 2010s while angel investing locally, and the picture was dismal but there were sparks of a revival. The current government that took power a few years ago completely ignored the new reality of the province and stomped on the ashes of the ecosystem. Alberta is unfortunately heading towards Detroit-level dysfunction. There will still be activity, but the Alberta of the past is gone forever. The only hope Alberta has is to switch government tracks and spend a real decade rebuilding from the continual societal damage that energy has impacted on it. And I'm not even talking about the environment yet. There is a real risk that Alberta will hollow-out and become little more than a slightly richer Saskatchewan.

dsomers 5y ago
As someone that grew up very close to Detroit, I’m afraid your analysis will be right. Sometimes you stop going from boom to bust to boom, and you just stay at bust. At lest I hope Albertans will get enough transfers from the fed to run decent medical and education systems, I wouldn’t wish on anyones children the things I’ve seen young people in Detroit have to live through.
- 1234letshaveatw 5y ago
  IMO, Detroit is at the peak of a boom cycle at the moment. Parks being filled out everywhere, Gilbert is in the middle of constructing his opus, grand central station is almost done(!), even the Illitch's are slowly building out district Detroit and fulfilling their obligation. The biggest problem at the moment for the mayor is deciding who to rain Biden bux on. Crazy to think about
  - ghaff 5y ago
    Interestingly I found out yesterday that a fairly large tech conference plans to hold its North America event in Detroit next year. In all my time in the tech industry, I have never seen or heard of a tech event, except for maybe some local company thing, being held in Detroit.
    - yostrovs 5y ago
      I live an hour away from Detroit and drove a friend into the city a couple of years ago to show her around. At some point she said something like "This city looks normal, like any other city. I can see living here." Then I drove her off of Woodward, one of the main thoroughfares that's been rebuilt and looks great. Within about two blocks going perpendicular to Woodward the scenery changed into what people think of Detroit. So you can have a conference and it will be just fine for those visiting. Just stay within the pretty area, which is coincidentally where the police patrol all the time.
      - 1234letshaveatw 5y ago
        Even that isn't necessarily the case anymore. growth has spread out past Woodward
      - ghaff 5y ago
        Where I live in the northeast US, it's pretty much the pattern with a lot of old industrial and/or port small cities. There's maybe a couple handfuls of gentrified blocks with restaurants, twee shops, entertainment venues, etc. Go a half dozen or so blocks and things get sketchier or at least a lot more rundown, albeit not historical Detroit levels. But you need to start somewhere.
      - SkyPuncher 5y ago
        This shouldn't shock anyone. This is nearly every major city in America. You often have very nice areas directly next to crappy areas. The "core" of downtown Detroit is now very nice and very enjoyable to spend time in.
      - 5y ago

dsomers 5y ago

As someone that grew up very close to Detroit, I’m afraid your analysis will be right. Sometimes you stop going from boom to bust to boom, and you just stay at bust. At lest I hope Albertans will get enough transfers from the fed to run decent medical and education systems, I wouldn’t wish on anyones children the things I’ve seen young people in Detroit have to live through.

1234letshaveatw 5y ago
IMO, Detroit is at the peak of a boom cycle at the moment. Parks being filled out everywhere, Gilbert is in the middle of constructing his opus, grand central station is almost done(!), even the Illitch's are slowly building out district Detroit and fulfilling their obligation. The biggest problem at the moment for the mayor is deciding who to rain Biden bux on. Crazy to think about
- ghaff 5y ago
  Interestingly I found out yesterday that a fairly large tech conference plans to hold its North America event in Detroit next year. In all my time in the tech industry, I have never seen or heard of a tech event, except for maybe some local company thing, being held in Detroit.
  - yostrovs 5y ago
    I live an hour away from Detroit and drove a friend into the city a couple of years ago to show her around. At some point she said something like "This city looks normal, like any other city. I can see living here." Then I drove her off of Woodward, one of the main thoroughfares that's been rebuilt and looks great. Within about two blocks going perpendicular to Woodward the scenery changed into what people think of Detroit. So you can have a conference and it will be just fine for those visiting. Just stay within the pretty area, which is coincidentally where the police patrol all the time.
    - 1234letshaveatw 5y ago
      Even that isn't necessarily the case anymore. growth has spread out past Woodward
    - ghaff 5y ago
      Where I live in the northeast US, it's pretty much the pattern with a lot of old industrial and/or port small cities. There's maybe a couple handfuls of gentrified blocks with restaurants, twee shops, entertainment venues, etc. Go a half dozen or so blocks and things get sketchier or at least a lot more rundown, albeit not historical Detroit levels. But you need to start somewhere.
    - SkyPuncher 5y ago
      This shouldn't shock anyone. This is nearly every major city in America. You often have very nice areas directly next to crappy areas. The "core" of downtown Detroit is now very nice and very enjoyable to spend time in.
    - 5y ago