4 ms·

But the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission, and kids are at such a low risk already. What confidence does the vaccine give you?

xyzzy_plugh 5y ago
Lower risk? You think unnecessary risk with kids is a good idea?
- chana_masala 5y ago
  I think that the current risk of vaccine side effects is higher than covid side effects for children
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    There's not a lot of data. ACIP found that there was more severe illness than vaccine side effects in 12+ age groups (with a disclaimer that the group had less data due to less 2nd doses being administered): https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
- xboxnolifes 5y ago
  If the risk was meaningful, they would have been getting the vaccine already. But yes, there is tons of unnecessary risk we apply to children every day, but we still do it (I don't think you need the whole driving statistics spiel). We measure risk by acceptability, not by existence.
cmrdporcupine 5y ago
It drastically curtails transmission. I have elderly parents, due for their booster. And I care about my community.
maxerickson 5y ago
It's likely that vaccination does reduce transmission. How come stuff always gets reduced to categorical descriptions? Like "prevent" is a pretty high bar, but things are still a lot better if you cut transmission by 50%.
- Gibbon1 5y ago
  Herd immunity sure as hell does reduce transmission. And you won't get that without vaccinating children. Personal opinion the semi hysterical hand wringing over the imminent vaccination of children is because the anti-vaxers know that's the last shoe to drop.
  - chana_masala 5y ago
    Card carrying anti-vaxxers are generally not just trying to be contrarian, from their perspective they are genuinely concerned for their and their children's health, however misguided you believe they are. So the hysteria is their actual fear of harm.
summerlight 5y ago
Vaccine does prevent transmission. Portugal, Spain, Korea, Japan, all those countries are observing significant reduction of daily cases and deaths.
- chana_masala 5y ago
  Please explain Israel or Singapore
  - summerlight 5y ago
    Israel still has pretty low vaccination rate (less than 70%) while it has completed most of their vaccination earlier this year. Vaccine's effectiveness wanes over time, so this simply proves that they just need a booster shot. Singapore recently dropped their zero COVID strategy so it's expected to see some rising numbers. Vaccine is not supposed to eliminate virus, but keep their reproduction under control so our health care system won't explode. Why do you think it's a counter example for vaccine's effectiveness?
    - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
      Because that's what he wants to see. It's not like there aren't a pile of other facts he's ignoring.
- Izkata 5y ago
  South Korea's cases and deaths have been increasing for a few months, while Spain and Japan have very recently had very large spikes (Japan's was several times larger than their previous spikes).
  - summerlight 5y ago
    > South Korea's cases and deaths have been increasing for a few months, That's because Korea had relatively slow roll out of vaccination + large national holiday (Chusuk). Given that Delta needs full vaccination to meaningfully slow down the spread, this is expected. The last week's R was less than 0.9, which coincides with recent vaccination program focused on the second shot while the mobility number is steadily increasing! There's a certain threshold where vaccine shows meaningful impacts on a reproduction rate, so you cannot simply saying "# of case is rising, vaccine is useless". > while Spain and Japan have very recently had very large spikes (Japan's was several times larger than their previous spikes). Japan also had pretty slow roll out, it had ~40% of full vaccination at the point of the spike but the number rapidly dropped as full vaccination rate goes up rapidly. This actually proves my point of strong correlation between reproduction rate and full vaccination rate. I know Japan now somehow arbitrarily limits free testing but positive test rate also has dropped significantly. Spain's the most recent spike was mostly due to their lack of lockdown option. It also had some level of vaccine hesitancy (which led to much lower fully vaccinated than partial vaccination rate) but the recent spike led many people to take their second shot. And they're now seeing a significant drop without declaring state of emergency. All of those slowing downs are strongly correlated with full vaccination rate. Of course, vaccine's effectiveness wanes over time so some sort of booster will be needed to keep its effectiveness.

xyzzy_plugh 5y ago

Lower risk? You think unnecessary risk with kids is a good idea?

chana_masala 5y ago
I think that the current risk of vaccine side effects is higher than covid side effects for children
- maxerickson 5y ago
  There's not a lot of data. ACIP found that there was more severe illness than vaccine side effects in 12+ age groups (with a disclaimer that the group had less data due to less 2nd doses being administered): https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
xboxnolifes 5y ago
If the risk was meaningful, they would have been getting the vaccine already. But yes, there is tons of unnecessary risk we apply to children every day, but we still do it (I don't think you need the whole driving statistics spiel). We measure risk by acceptability, not by existence.

cmrdporcupine 5y ago

It drastically curtails transmission. I have elderly parents, due for their booster. And I care about my community.

maxerickson 5y ago

It's likely that vaccination does reduce transmission. How come stuff always gets reduced to categorical descriptions? Like "prevent" is a pretty high bar, but things are still a lot better if you cut transmission by 50%.

Gibbon1 5y ago
Herd immunity sure as hell does reduce transmission. And you won't get that without vaccinating children. Personal opinion the semi hysterical hand wringing over the imminent vaccination of children is because the anti-vaxers know that's the last shoe to drop.
- chana_masala 5y ago
  Card carrying anti-vaxxers are generally not just trying to be contrarian, from their perspective they are genuinely concerned for their and their children's health, however misguided you believe they are. So the hysteria is their actual fear of harm.

summerlight 5y ago

Vaccine does prevent transmission. Portugal, Spain, Korea, Japan, all those countries are observing significant reduction of daily cases and deaths.

chana_masala 5y ago
Please explain Israel or Singapore
- summerlight 5y ago
  Israel still has pretty low vaccination rate (less than 70%) while it has completed most of their vaccination earlier this year. Vaccine's effectiveness wanes over time, so this simply proves that they just need a booster shot. Singapore recently dropped their zero COVID strategy so it's expected to see some rising numbers. Vaccine is not supposed to eliminate virus, but keep their reproduction under control so our health care system won't explode. Why do you think it's a counter example for vaccine's effectiveness?
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    Because that's what he wants to see. It's not like there aren't a pile of other facts he's ignoring.
Izkata 5y ago
South Korea's cases and deaths have been increasing for a few months, while Spain and Japan have very recently had very large spikes (Japan's was several times larger than their previous spikes).
- summerlight 5y ago
  > South Korea's cases and deaths have been increasing for a few months, That's because Korea had relatively slow roll out of vaccination + large national holiday (Chusuk). Given that Delta needs full vaccination to meaningfully slow down the spread, this is expected. The last week's R was less than 0.9, which coincides with recent vaccination program focused on the second shot while the mobility number is steadily increasing! There's a certain threshold where vaccine shows meaningful impacts on a reproduction rate, so you cannot simply saying "# of case is rising, vaccine is useless". > while Spain and Japan have very recently had very large spikes (Japan's was several times larger than their previous spikes). Japan also had pretty slow roll out, it had ~40% of full vaccination at the point of the spike but the number rapidly dropped as full vaccination rate goes up rapidly. This actually proves my point of strong correlation between reproduction rate and full vaccination rate. I know Japan now somehow arbitrarily limits free testing but positive test rate also has dropped significantly. Spain's the most recent spike was mostly due to their lack of lockdown option. It also had some level of vaccine hesitancy (which led to much lower fully vaccinated than partial vaccination rate) but the recent spike led many people to take their second shot. And they're now seeing a significant drop without declaring state of emergency. All of those slowing downs are strongly correlated with full vaccination rate. Of course, vaccine's effectiveness wanes over time so some sort of booster will be needed to keep its effectiveness.