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That … doesn’t actually refute my point. People have kids in apartments all the time, always have and always will. Anyways, in country after country we see the
by ashtonkem 5y ago
That … doesn’t actually refute my point. People have kids in apartments all the time, always have and always will.
Anyways, in country after country we see the exact same pattern; the wealthier the country gets and the lower their infant mortality gets, the fewer children they have. The majority of the world is now below replacement rate; even India is down below 2.2 children per woman, and Mexico is now on the cusp of the replacement rate. Overall the only continent still growing is Africa, as it has the vast majority of the countries with high fertility rates. I expect that to change as Africa develops and gets richer.
You might say “aha, but people can’t afford as many kids as they want to in the west, because it’s so expensive”. There is some truth to this; there’s a gap between desired fertility and actual fertility in some countries. But in a lot of countries the number of children women reportedly want has fallen. In America it’s gone from 3.5 to 2.5 in the past century. Yes, women are having fewer children than they reportedly want, but not by a lot. Frankly I think that it's much easier to say you want 3 kids than it is to actually decide to have a third.
And that’s before we consider that fertility has fallen off a cliff in countries where having a child is cheaper, and where the state generously subsidizes childbirth and child care. Norway is down to 1.6, Denmark is at 1.7, and so is Sweden. If the issue was cost, surely generous state subsidies would drive up fertility, no?
I think the simple reality is that as child mortality falls, parents increasingly begin to view children as something to be invested in, rather than an economic source for the household (in poorer countries) or as a default consequence of marriage and sex. This tips the balance over from parents wanting (or getting by default) big families, to instead smaller families that are easier to manage and that allow greater emotional investment per child.