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> in mere centuries. I'll just add to my own comment that 3% economic growth for 480 years would mean the economy in 2500 would be 1,500,000 times its current
by titzer 5y ago
> in mere centuries.
I'll just add to my own comment that 3% economic growth for 480 years would mean the economy in 2500 would be 1,500,000 times its current size today and in the year 3000 almost 3.8 trillion times its current size. So obviously, exponential growth is going to come to an end, probably slowing down this century and we will absolutely have to reach sustainability on Earth.
- 0xB31B1B 5y ago"exponential growth is going to come to an end" We're literally just hitting the part of economic development where the highest impacts to output are not resource intensive but rather intellectual property intensive, and also difficult to measure by a traditional measure like GDP. How do you measure the economic impact of say, wikipedia, in terms of GDP? Its free, it raises funds only through donations, and it has immense value. We're just getting started with exponential growth, and we're just getting started because we're finally decoupling growth from physical resources
- croes 5y agoEven things like Wikipedia need physical resources like servers and have a large energie consumption.
- romski 5y agoTrivial compared to their value.
- gerbilly 5y ago>We're literally just hitting the part of economic development where the highest impacts to output are not resource intensive but rather intellectual property intensive I hope they issue patents on good edible paper then, because if the climate changes as much as this study proposes, all this intellectual property won’t matter much.
- runako 5y ago> are not resource intensive but rather intellectual property intensive, Just in time for folks to invent mechanisms to convert IP intensity to physical resource intensity via e.g. blockchains.
- scythe 5y agoI don't understand the point of these wild extrapolations. You can just review the actual global GDP growth rate trend and notice that the YoY % increase has been trending generally downward for more than half a century: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-r... Obviously annual real GDP growth cannot be 3% forever, but the data show that we're slowing down gradually rather than rushing toward some kind of wall. The question is what to do about the real present slowdown, not some hypothetical future catastrophe[1]. 1: (climate change is not hypothetical)
- thewakalix 5y agoEither that, or go beyond Earth!
- zz865 5y agoNot really. I heard a quote that the weight of everything you buy now is less than 50 years ago. Most of what I spend money on is housing and services - esp vacations, education and healthcare.