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Apple will dominate the market until the market itself becomes irrelevant. Good news for Apple is that in the next 5 years I don’t see something in the horizon

Apple will dominate the market until the market itself becomes irrelevant. Good news for Apple is that in the next 5 years I don’t see something in the horizon to challenge the market of smartphones.

echelon 5y ago
Apple does, which is why they're planning their next moves into XR.
intrasight 5y ago
The good news for Apple is that the next phase is AR, and I expect that Apple will captures the lion's share of the profits there too.
- kleiba 5y ago
  My bet is that AR is going to go the way of 3D TVs.
  - thefounder 5y ago
    100% sure...or shall I say like the VR? It has its use but we are not there yet. Maybe in 10-20 years.
  - lostgame 5y ago
    Since 3D TV's never got to a glasses-less state, they were always an incredible compromise. AR already works better than 3D TV's ever did, in that regard. I always said, back in the day - 'I'll invest in 3D when we don't need glasses for it' - and I guess enough people collectively said that at the same time that it shut down the industry and never matured to that level.
  - handrous 5y ago
    Every major tech vendor seems certain AR glasses are going to be the "next Smartphone", if you will, in terms of UI and market trends. Nothing else could explain their continued emphasis on AR tools & demos for platforms that suck to use for AR except as a novelty (i.e. all current platforms).
    - na85 5y ago
      I'm 100% certain that's because every major tech vendor sees nothing but dollar signs due to the advertising potential. AR will quickly devolve into an advertising hellscape, if it takes off at all.
      - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
        >like the Web people browse and the apos they scroll?
  - joshstrange 5y ago
    3D TVs were always a solution in search of problem. I've seen 3D movies before and it was always lackluster. I even have a 3D TV because that's all that was being sold when I bought mine, I never bought glasses for it or even cared to try it out. AR is a whole other ballgame, it's a layer on top of reality whereas 3D was a super-niche format that could only be viewed with special glasses in front of a special screen. If you remove the need for the screen OR the glasses then you have something interesting and that's what AR is. If my TV could do 3D without glasses I might be slightly more interested in it.
  - Winsaucerer 5y ago
    I am absolutely sure that AR will one day be everywhere used by everyone. There's going to be so many useful applications opened up by people being able to have a wearable always available AR view. How soon, I don't know -- probably not before the technology isn't an inconvenience to wear.
mohanmcgeek 5y ago
There's definitely something: Google, Microsoft or Amazon launching a sub $300 smartphone and an ad campaign making fun of people spending a thousand dollars for nothing extra. It feels like FAAMG minus Google don't want to compete with each other on the consumer side.
- criddell 5y ago
  It really feels like Google is losing interest in Android. What are the chances that they will sell it to somebody like Microsoft with the requirement that certain Google Services remain?
- mnholt 5y ago
  If it was that easy they would have already done it. You are drastically oversimplifying the market, network and ecosystem effects. The market has shown that it will gobble up $1000 phones, why sell one at $300? Apple has built a network that encourages people to stay in it (iMessage for example). They have also built an ecosystem of products that harmonize well. The market seems to enjoy this.
- jxidjhdhdhdhfhf 5y ago
  Nah. Half the reason people buy iPhones is to show other people they aren't poor. Buying a sub-$300 phone doesn't achieve that goal.
  - reayn 5y ago
    > Half the reason people buy iPhones is to show other people they aren't poor While I'm pretty sure you jest here, this simply isn't true. iMessage, FaceTime, consistency with family and friends, and the (whether founded or not is up to you) trust in a machine that'll last you quite a few years and "just work" is the main reason people buy iPhones. Not saying that this is my thought process (i have my own reasons for owning one) but it pretty much sums up what the majority of people think. That's just accounting for people who actually care about what phone they own, which you'd be surprised to find is actually a quite small percentage...

echelon 5y ago

Apple does, which is why they're planning their next moves into XR.

intrasight 5y ago

The good news for Apple is that the next phase is AR, and I expect that Apple will captures the lion's share of the profits there too.

kleiba 5y ago
My bet is that AR is going to go the way of 3D TVs.
- thefounder 5y ago
  100% sure...or shall I say like the VR? It has its use but we are not there yet. Maybe in 10-20 years.
- lostgame 5y ago
  Since 3D TV's never got to a glasses-less state, they were always an incredible compromise. AR already works better than 3D TV's ever did, in that regard. I always said, back in the day - 'I'll invest in 3D when we don't need glasses for it' - and I guess enough people collectively said that at the same time that it shut down the industry and never matured to that level.
- handrous 5y ago
  Every major tech vendor seems certain AR glasses are going to be the "next Smartphone", if you will, in terms of UI and market trends. Nothing else could explain their continued emphasis on AR tools & demos for platforms that suck to use for AR except as a novelty (i.e. all current platforms).
  - na85 5y ago
    I'm 100% certain that's because every major tech vendor sees nothing but dollar signs due to the advertising potential. AR will quickly devolve into an advertising hellscape, if it takes off at all.
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
      >like the Web people browse and the apos they scroll?
- joshstrange 5y ago
  3D TVs were always a solution in search of problem. I've seen 3D movies before and it was always lackluster. I even have a 3D TV because that's all that was being sold when I bought mine, I never bought glasses for it or even cared to try it out. AR is a whole other ballgame, it's a layer on top of reality whereas 3D was a super-niche format that could only be viewed with special glasses in front of a special screen. If you remove the need for the screen OR the glasses then you have something interesting and that's what AR is. If my TV could do 3D without glasses I might be slightly more interested in it.
- Winsaucerer 5y ago
  I am absolutely sure that AR will one day be everywhere used by everyone. There's going to be so many useful applications opened up by people being able to have a wearable always available AR view. How soon, I don't know -- probably not before the technology isn't an inconvenience to wear.

mohanmcgeek 5y ago

There's definitely something: Google, Microsoft or Amazon launching a sub $300 smartphone and an ad campaign making fun of people spending a thousand dollars for nothing extra. It feels like FAAMG minus Google don't want to compete with each other on the consumer side.

criddell 5y ago
It really feels like Google is losing interest in Android. What are the chances that they will sell it to somebody like Microsoft with the requirement that certain Google Services remain?
mnholt 5y ago
If it was that easy they would have already done it. You are drastically oversimplifying the market, network and ecosystem effects. The market has shown that it will gobble up $1000 phones, why sell one at $300? Apple has built a network that encourages people to stay in it (iMessage for example). They have also built an ecosystem of products that harmonize well. The market seems to enjoy this.
jxidjhdhdhdhfhf 5y ago
Nah. Half the reason people buy iPhones is to show other people they aren't poor. Buying a sub-$300 phone doesn't achieve that goal.
- reayn 5y ago
  > Half the reason people buy iPhones is to show other people they aren't poor While I'm pretty sure you jest here, this simply isn't true. iMessage, FaceTime, consistency with family and friends, and the (whether founded or not is up to you) trust in a machine that'll last you quite a few years and "just work" is the main reason people buy iPhones. Not saying that this is my thought process (i have my own reasons for owning one) but it pretty much sums up what the majority of people think. That's just accounting for people who actually care about what phone they own, which you'd be surprised to find is actually a quite small percentage...