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I certainly wasn't suggesting that we should stop measuring instantaneous CPI / inflation. We should -- it's the only way that the bigger macro trend becomes v
by beambot 5y ago
I certainly wasn't suggesting that we should stop measuring instantaneous CPI / inflation. We should -- it's the only way that the bigger macro trend becomes visible over time.
My entire comment was: Don't miss the forest for the trees. It's the same as driving a car: Instantaneous velocity matters, but so do averages. The economy operates at timescales that are both micro (e.g. high-frequency trading) and macro (e.g. 5-year & 10-year plans).
Inflation has an instantaneous measurement aspect (i.e. CPI) and a longer-trend macro component. Only time will tell if today's inflation is transitory (as the Fed would like us to believe) or part of a bigger shift. But it's impossible to suss out the bigger underlying trend right now, given that we're in the middle of a giant, covid-induced supply-chain bullwhip:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect