5 ms·

Except... what's going to happen is that "not enough" will get done by then, and the world won't end overnight. So what's the point, exactly? This is like the

by Syonyk 5y ago

Except... what's going to happen is that "not enough" will get done by then, and the world won't end overnight. So what's the point, exactly? This is like the death cults claiming The World Will End At Exactly... - and it doesn't, and the whole thing fizzles out. 1.5C will suck. 2C will suck more. Etc. But it's not like there's some magical point where it won't suck.

axutio 5y ago
And when it fizzles out, it'll just become more fodder for climate change denialists down the line. Six years from now, they'll point to this as another piece of evidence that climate change isn't real/is a conspiracy/is heavily overblown. Alarmists have for decades and continue to harm actual progress in the fight against climate change.
- AstralStorm 5y ago
  It won't fizzle out, that's the problem. There's no maximum GHG dose atmosphere can't take. And the planet has been hotter in the past too. The thing is, there were no humans at the time and life was a bit different. We're talking some 50 year timespan to terrible effects, that means most everyone here will be affected. They may be affected more or less. Current trajectory is on more, bordering on deadly. The time for low impact has passed, thanks to people like you dismissing actual scientists as alarmist. We've known this for 40+ years now. It's become public knowledge at least 25 years ago. The climate system has a lot of inertia, century scale at times, once pushed too hard humanity might not be able to stop it, no matter what we do.
missedthecue 5y ago
According to the IPCC, we are already 80% of the way to 1.5c, and the world is quite comfortable.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Not sure about 'quite comfortable' part. The PNW just had a crazy >115F heat wave. At some point the crops will start drying out in the fields, which is far from a reassuring prospect. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/agriculture/there-was-nothing-we-could-save-heat-wave-cooked-walla-walla-sweet-onions-to-mush https://www.seattletimes.com/business/agriculture/there-was-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_heat_wave#Agriculture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_hea...
  - gary_0 5y ago
    > At some point the crops will start drying out in the fields It's already happening, as your links show. Double-digit percentage crop loss in some areas, which has already resulted in empty supermarket shelves for some staples[0]. And food prices are already reaching record highs. It won't be long before heat bubbles hit the wrong places at the wrong times and kneecap the world's food supply. In the meantime, the human population is still rising sharply[1], with 2 billion more mouths to feed coming before the population curve will start to level out. Things aren't looking good. [0] https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/05/pasta-shortage-due-to-poor-wheat-harvest-caused-by-climate-change-15366232/ https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/05/pasta-shortage-due-to-poor-wh... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/06/2019-Revision-%E2%80%93-World-Population-Growth-1700-2100-772x550.png https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/06/2019-Revision-%E2...
    - angelzen 5y ago
      Things are not looking good. The wheat situation is the most worrisome, in WA the 2021 wheat crop is 50% of the 2020 crop. "Smallest harvest in 57 years." On a small note, I wasn't aware of the pasta situation. I was surprised earlier this week when there was no pasta at the local Costco, sadly that explains it. https://archive.is/JcDRd https://archive.is/JcDRd

by Syonyk 5y ago

axutio 5y ago

And when it fizzles out, it'll just become more fodder for climate change denialists down the line. Six years from now, they'll point to this as another piece of evidence that climate change isn't real/is a conspiracy/is heavily overblown. Alarmists have for decades and continue to harm actual progress in the fight against climate change.

AstralStorm 5y ago
It won't fizzle out, that's the problem. There's no maximum GHG dose atmosphere can't take. And the planet has been hotter in the past too. The thing is, there were no humans at the time and life was a bit different. We're talking some 50 year timespan to terrible effects, that means most everyone here will be affected. They may be affected more or less. Current trajectory is on more, bordering on deadly. The time for low impact has passed, thanks to people like you dismissing actual scientists as alarmist. We've known this for 40+ years now. It's become public knowledge at least 25 years ago. The climate system has a lot of inertia, century scale at times, once pushed too hard humanity might not be able to stop it, no matter what we do.

missedthecue 5y ago

According to the IPCC, we are already 80% of the way to 1.5c, and the world is quite comfortable.

angelzen 5y ago
Not sure about 'quite comfortable' part. The PNW just had a crazy >115F heat wave. At some point the crops will start drying out in the fields, which is far from a reassuring prospect. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/agriculture/there-was-nothing-we-could-save-heat-wave-cooked-walla-walla-sweet-onions-to-mush https://www.seattletimes.com/business/agriculture/there-was-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_heat_wave#Agriculture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_hea...
- gary_0 5y ago
  > At some point the crops will start drying out in the fields It's already happening, as your links show. Double-digit percentage crop loss in some areas, which has already resulted in empty supermarket shelves for some staples[0]. And food prices are already reaching record highs. It won't be long before heat bubbles hit the wrong places at the wrong times and kneecap the world's food supply. In the meantime, the human population is still rising sharply[1], with 2 billion more mouths to feed coming before the population curve will start to level out. Things aren't looking good. [0] https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/05/pasta-shortage-due-to-poor-wheat-harvest-caused-by-climate-change-15366232/ https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/05/pasta-shortage-due-to-poor-wh... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/06/2019-Revision-%E2%80%93-World-Population-Growth-1700-2100-772x550.png https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/06/2019-Revision-%E2...
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Things are not looking good. The wheat situation is the most worrisome, in WA the 2021 wheat crop is 50% of the 2020 crop. "Smallest harvest in 57 years." On a small note, I wasn't aware of the pasta situation. I was surprised earlier this week when there was no pasta at the local Costco, sadly that explains it. https://archive.is/JcDRd https://archive.is/JcDRd