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There are multiple factors driving this. Yes QE and welfare checks are driving consumer spending, mainly on durable goods, but there are some compounding factor
by simonh 5y ago
There are multiple factors driving this. Yes QE and welfare checks are driving consumer spending, mainly on durable goods, but there are some compounding factors.
One is that commodity prices crashed last year in some important categories. As these prices recover that translates into a bump in inflation now. Energy prices are also shooting up. Another is that there's an ongoing supply crisis for key inputs. Microchips is an obvious one we read about constantly. I'm sure most of you have read about container ships queueing up at ports, so supply lines are choked at the moment. There's a lorry driver shortage here in Europe as well.
So commodity and energy prices up, wages are also up and there's a labour shortage, consumer spending up and supply down equals inflation.
Frankly having endured well over 5% inflation for almost the entire first half of my life I'm not panicking. A lot of these effects are short to medium term. The pandemic was always going to have economic repercussions and if it's just a year or two of inflation we will have to take the hit, cushioned by those welfare cheques and increased household savings through the pandemic. The pain was always going to come in one form or another.