one thought ive had for a while (and this isn't a totally fleshed out thought, would like to hear opinions) is we are in for whipsaw inflation-deflation for the

one thought ive had for a while (and this isn't a totally fleshed out thought, would like to hear opinions) is we are in for whipsaw inflation-deflation for the next couple of years and we are all along for the ride. the fed does have some levers to pull but not with much magnitude, especially with interest rates where they are. I believe there were signs of a deflationary environment up until about 18 months ago, then we had velocity drop to 0. tons of money was added to make up for the decreased velocity. we've had some signs of inflation for sure, some exacerbated by supply issues. but much of the money put into the system is collecting in pockets of unproductive asset classes - sitting in bank accounts, paying off debts(?), getting off shored, NFT and crypto. there is no "multiplicative" effect on the economy with this new money added and so its effect will wear off quickly. stimulus etc. filters through and collects in certain pockets/areas, individuals who realize these profits then shift to unproductive classes. the fed, having few tools, knows they need interest rates. so next month they start raising through the end of 2024, which will further the whipsaw as housing prices decrease and capital dries up. a spending bill might be approved which will trickle some money back in but largely as boomers continue leaving the workforce, younger people straddle the sideline of the workforce (due to debt and/or low wages), declining birth rate, etc. these various contractions are all conducive to a deflationary environment, so we will be in a state of fighting the tide for a couple of years. meanwhile, higher education keeps going up and with federally backed student loans the cycle continues. the shift to electric cars will increase vehicle purchase prices substantially. if the rest of the CPI basket keeps trickling up, where does this end up in a couple of years? EDIT - this is ignoring geopolitical issues for now. of course that certainly can have a massive effect on things and we are not in a vacuum.