The fact that you can make out every single historical crash location in their prediction shows that this model is horribly overfit. (Edit: The paper does menti

The fact that you can make out every single historical crash location in their prediction shows that this model is horribly overfit. (Edit: The paper does mention this general problem.) Also, the rest of the prediction appears to just be the density of the road segmentation. Look at the parking lot (?) top left of the purple box (or all the road-rich neighborhoods in the right half): https://ml8ygptwlcsq.i.optimole.com/fMKjlhs-dkVIYmPS/w:700/h:556/q:auto/https://www.unite.ai/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/kernel-density-estimation.jpg https://ml8ygptwlcsq.i.optimole.com/fMKjlhs-dkVIYmPS/w:700/h... Plenty high estimated risk, zero actual collisions. You could get the same predictive quality with a simple gaussian blur of the "historical accidents" plots (road segmentation included), it seems.