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Let's use another example to explain why your thinking is incomplete: temperature versus global warming. Just because it's a bit chilly today, it does not mean

Let's use another example to explain why your thinking is incomplete: temperature versus global warming. Just because it's a bit chilly today, it does not mean that global warming isn't real. The time constants of the underlying effect matter, even if you have high variance in shorter time scales.

jerf 5y ago
So, your thesis is that if it's cold today, the weather channels shouldn't report it, because telling people it's cold today will lead to people coming to wrong conclusions about global warming? The measure exists. Hiding it does not make the measure stop existing. The fact that it's cold today "because of a polar vortex" does not make my house any warmer. This is really basic stuff. You must be able to keep these things separate if you want to be able to think rationally. You must be able to accept that there is data that does not seem to agree with the final conclusion. You are all asserting that it is good and proper to let the conclusions mix back into the source data, and advocating that it is good to do so. This is not rational, and it is not good and proper. Any conclusion you've drawn via such a methodology ought to be re-examined. Seeing such vigorous, spirited, and numerous defenses of systematically muddied thinking on HN is a bit odd.
- beambot 5y ago
  I certainly wasn't suggesting that we should stop measuring instantaneous CPI / inflation. We should -- it's the only way that the bigger macro trend becomes visible over time. My entire comment was: Don't miss the forest for the trees. It's the same as driving a car: Instantaneous velocity matters, but so do averages. The economy operates at timescales that are both micro (e.g. high-frequency trading) and macro (e.g. 5-year & 10-year plans). Inflation has an instantaneous measurement aspect (i.e. CPI) and a longer-trend macro component. Only time will tell if today's inflation is transitory (as the Fed would like us to believe) or part of a bigger shift. But it's impossible to suss out the bigger underlying trend right now, given that we're in the middle of a giant, covid-induced supply-chain bullwhip: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

jerf 5y ago

So, your thesis is that if it's cold today, the weather channels shouldn't report it, because telling people it's cold today will lead to people coming to wrong conclusions about global warming? The measure exists. Hiding it does not make the measure stop existing. The fact that it's cold today "because of a polar vortex" does not make my house any warmer. This is really basic stuff. You must be able to keep these things separate if you want to be able to think rationally. You must be able to accept that there is data that does not seem to agree with the final conclusion. You are all asserting that it is good and proper to let the conclusions mix back into the source data, and advocating that it is good to do so. This is not rational, and it is not good and proper. Any conclusion you've drawn via such a methodology ought to be re-examined. Seeing such vigorous, spirited, and numerous defenses of systematically muddied thinking on HN is a bit odd.

beambot 5y ago
I certainly wasn't suggesting that we should stop measuring instantaneous CPI / inflation. We should -- it's the only way that the bigger macro trend becomes visible over time. My entire comment was: Don't miss the forest for the trees. It's the same as driving a car: Instantaneous velocity matters, but so do averages. The economy operates at timescales that are both micro (e.g. high-frequency trading) and macro (e.g. 5-year & 10-year plans). Inflation has an instantaneous measurement aspect (i.e. CPI) and a longer-trend macro component. Only time will tell if today's inflation is transitory (as the Fed would like us to believe) or part of a bigger shift. But it's impossible to suss out the bigger underlying trend right now, given that we're in the middle of a giant, covid-induced supply-chain bullwhip: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect