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Picking successful long term investments is highly knowledge/conviction/skill based. Picking winners consistently is very doable for a good investor.
by whiskyant 5y ago
Picking successful long term investments is highly knowledge/conviction/skill based. Picking winners consistently is very doable for a good investor.
- tejohnso 5y agoBut that just further muddies the distinction between gambling and investing if you contrast with poker. Poker is highly skill/knowledge based. Winning tournaments consistently is very doable for a good player. In both cases "consistently" doesn't mean without losing from time to time. Even Buffet makes mistakes. As does Negreanu.
- zeckalpha 5y agoA Random Walk Down Wallstreet illustrates it is luck. To claim it is skill is survivor bias.
- acdha 5y agoThat’s not quite right: that book is about consistently, significantly outperforming the market. That doesn’t mean that you can’t invest and see consistent solid returns, unlike gambling, but sets a ceiling on how much you can sustainably expect.