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bullshit. If there are cheaper and safer alternatives. being anti-nuclear is common sense.

by beders 5y ago

rllearneratwork 5y ago
no one is asking for 100% nuclear. Sure, when sun shines solar makes sense. But it can't satisfy all the needs all the time. Look at California - we are closing our nuclear and buying more electricity from Utah where it is generated using coal and gas. You can't outsource climate change.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
baud147258 5y ago
are alternatives really cheaper when you need to build more to compensate for the moments when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow?
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Yes, even assuming curtailment, renewables + storage are cheaper than nuclear. EDIT (sources): https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-record-setting-solar-power-price-under-2%C2%A2-kwh/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-rec... https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-sola... https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1144654725901504512 https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1144654725901504512 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/09/solar-challenging-nuclear-as-potential-climate-change-solution/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/09/solar-challenging-nuc... https://www.utilitydive.com/news/minnesota-study-finds-it-cheaper-to-curtail-solar-than-to-add-storage/546467/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/minnesota-study-finds-it-ch...
  - eldaisfish 5y ago
    are you certain this remains true on a grid dominated by wind and solar? it is true at the moment because the grid just deals with the vagaries of these sources and other generators (and consumers) bear the cost. Will this continue to be the case?
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      Renewables have zero marginal cost to generate. When the spot price goes negative, they can simply stop exporting. Other generators are paying others to take power and for the fuel they're using to generate. As renewables penetration increases, it only puts more pain on legacy generators and increases the arb opportunity for storage (which can charge when power is cheap, and discharge when demand is high). This is the entire model around Tesla's Autobidder platform [1] and their energy trading division [2], and their desire to become a virtual utility (with the value in energy orchestration between system components). [1] https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-software/autobidder https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-software/autobidd... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tesla-plans-begin-trading-solar-wind-battery-storage-energy-2021-09-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tesla-plans-begin-tr... EDIT: @eldaisfish: Energy storage growth in the US: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage/pdf/battery_storage_2021.pdf https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystor... Tesla currently orchestrates 1.2Gwh of storage, and their Megapack manufacturing facility will have the capacity to build 40Gwh of storage per year: https://electrek.co/2021/03/16/tesla-autobidder-managing-over-12-gwh-energy-storage/ https://electrek.co/2021/03/16/tesla-autobidder-managing-ove..., https://electrek.co/2021/10/08/tesla-megafactory-aims-40-gwh-megapacks-per-year/ https://electrek.co/2021/10/08/tesla-megafactory-aims-40-gwh... The Hornsdale Power Reserve (built and orchestrated by Tesla) is used for grid services (frequency and voltage response, "continuous power"), and has exceeded expectations: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/20/hornsdale-and-its-big-tesla-battery-exceed-expectations-as-neoens-storage-revenue-surgesneoen-reports-strong-revenue-increase-teslas-hornsdale-big-battery-exceeding-expectations/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/20/hornsdale-and-its-big... Utility scale PV can also provide grid forming services at minimal cost (firmware upgrade to inverters): https://www.nrel.gov/news/features/2020/renewables-rescue-stability-as-the-grid-loses-spin.html https://www.nrel.gov/news/features/2020/renewables-rescue-st...
Ericson2314 5y ago
Holding out for new battery stuff when we should have acted yesterday scares me. Confusing the new marginal cost of renewables with the cost of them playing all roles in power demand is similar to the sort of myopic thinking that got us into this mess in the first place --- reliability is also an externality. If that's too harsh an analogy, comparing going all-window/solar to just-in-time supply chains might be better.
dreadlordbone 5y ago
Which ones are those that are also effective enough?
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Renewables, pumped and battery storage, HVDC transmission, interconnectors between grids. California and Australia (picked from the top of my head based on knowledge of their forward looking policies) will be almost entirely powered by renewables in 2045 and 2030 (respectively) without any nuclear power. "Green" hydrogen and ammonia are still in early stages of development, but are promising very long duration storage technologies that can buffer excess renewable production.
  - asdff 5y ago
    We do not yet have the technology to power California with non-nuclear renewable energy by 2045. Those estimates are based on expectations that we will have that technology by then, but we don't have these capabilities yet. What we do have today is nuclear energy that can achieve that goal by 2030, if we began today.
eldaisfish 5y ago
the problem with cheaper and safer is that you are assuming there will come a point in the future where carbon-based generation will be eliminated. That date is indeterminate and isn’t guaranteed. On the other hand is nuclear, a technology that’s well understood, expensive, over-regulated but which does not have ongoing carbon emissions. Climate change is a problem today. It was a problem yesterday and needs a solution ASAP, not at some indeterminate point in the future.

bullshit. If there are cheaper and safer alternatives. being anti-nuclear is common sense.

by beders 5y ago

bullshit. If there are cheaper and safer alternatives. being anti-nuclear is common sense.

no one is asking for 100% nuclear. Sure, when sun shines solar makes sense. But it can't satisfy all the needs all the time. Look at California - we are closing our nuclear and buying more electricity from Utah where it is generated using coal and gas. You can't outsource climate change.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

baud147258 5y ago

are alternatives really cheaper when you need to build more to compensate for the moments when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow?

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Yes, even assuming curtailment, renewables + storage are cheaper than nuclear. EDIT (sources): https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-record-setting-solar-power-price-under-2%C2%A2-kwh/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-rec... https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-sola... https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1144654725901504512 https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1144654725901504512 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/09/solar-challenging-nuclear-as-potential-climate-change-solution/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/09/solar-challenging-nuc... https://www.utilitydive.com/news/minnesota-study-finds-it-cheaper-to-curtail-solar-than-to-add-storage/546467/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/minnesota-study-finds-it-ch...
- eldaisfish 5y ago
  are you certain this remains true on a grid dominated by wind and solar? it is true at the moment because the grid just deals with the vagaries of these sources and other generators (and consumers) bear the cost. Will this continue to be the case?
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Renewables have zero marginal cost to generate. When the spot price goes negative, they can simply stop exporting. Other generators are paying others to take power and for the fuel they're using to generate. As renewables penetration increases, it only puts more pain on legacy generators and increases the arb opportunity for storage (which can charge when power is cheap, and discharge when demand is high). This is the entire model around Tesla's Autobidder platform [1] and their energy trading division [2], and their desire to become a virtual utility (with the value in energy orchestration between system components). [1] https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-software/autobidder https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/tesla-software/autobidd... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tesla-plans-begin-trading-solar-wind-battery-storage-energy-2021-09-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tesla-plans-begin-tr... EDIT: @eldaisfish: Energy storage growth in the US: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage/pdf/battery_storage_2021.pdf https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystor... Tesla currently orchestrates 1.2Gwh of storage, and their Megapack manufacturing facility will have the capacity to build 40Gwh of storage per year: https://electrek.co/2021/03/16/tesla-autobidder-managing-over-12-gwh-energy-storage/ https://electrek.co/2021/03/16/tesla-autobidder-managing-ove..., https://electrek.co/2021/10/08/tesla-megafactory-aims-40-gwh-megapacks-per-year/ https://electrek.co/2021/10/08/tesla-megafactory-aims-40-gwh... The Hornsdale Power Reserve (built and orchestrated by Tesla) is used for grid services (frequency and voltage response, "continuous power"), and has exceeded expectations: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/20/hornsdale-and-its-big-tesla-battery-exceed-expectations-as-neoens-storage-revenue-surgesneoen-reports-strong-revenue-increase-teslas-hornsdale-big-battery-exceeding-expectations/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/20/hornsdale-and-its-big... Utility scale PV can also provide grid forming services at minimal cost (firmware upgrade to inverters): https://www.nrel.gov/news/features/2020/renewables-rescue-stability-as-the-grid-loses-spin.html https://www.nrel.gov/news/features/2020/renewables-rescue-st...

Ericson2314 5y ago

Holding out for new battery stuff when we should have acted yesterday scares me. Confusing the new marginal cost of renewables with the cost of them playing all roles in power demand is similar to the sort of myopic thinking that got us into this mess in the first place --- reliability is also an externality. If that's too harsh an analogy, comparing going all-window/solar to just-in-time supply chains might be better.

dreadlordbone 5y ago

Which ones are those that are also effective enough?

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Renewables, pumped and battery storage, HVDC transmission, interconnectors between grids. California and Australia (picked from the top of my head based on knowledge of their forward looking policies) will be almost entirely powered by renewables in 2045 and 2030 (respectively) without any nuclear power. "Green" hydrogen and ammonia are still in early stages of development, but are promising very long duration storage technologies that can buffer excess renewable production.
- asdff 5y ago
  We do not yet have the technology to power California with non-nuclear renewable energy by 2045. Those estimates are based on expectations that we will have that technology by then, but we don't have these capabilities yet. What we do have today is nuclear energy that can achieve that goal by 2030, if we began today.

eldaisfish 5y ago

the problem with cheaper and safer is that you are assuming there will come a point in the future where carbon-based generation will be eliminated. That date is indeterminate and isn’t guaranteed. On the other hand is nuclear, a technology that’s well understood, expensive, over-regulated but which does not have ongoing carbon emissions. Climate change is a problem today. It was a problem yesterday and needs a solution ASAP, not at some indeterminate point in the future.