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I recall that at the start of 2020, people were posting predictions for the next decade, and one guy predicted Bitcoin would reach $100k. In fact, he predicted

I recall that at the start of 2020, people were posting predictions for the next decade, and one guy predicted Bitcoin would reach $100k. In fact, he predicted it would reach $100k by the end of the year, IIRC. I take the opposite view; crypto mania will fizzle out in the next few years, leading to a corresponding decline in BTC and ETH prices. People bought crypto without belief in its intrinsic value or any intention of using it to buy goods, but rather because they hoped it's price would increase - the very definition of speculation.

whatanorigtht 5y ago
Oh wow! A prediction that bitcoin will go to zero! What an original thought!
x3sphere 5y ago
I mean that’s what happened in 2017-2018 yet again we are repeating the same bubble. I guess these crazy run ups will end at some point but I see no indication this will be the last.
- mettamage 5y ago
  I don’t think it will be. I talked to a person that valuates art. When I heard her talk, I felt that cryptocurrency valuation had a lot in common with it. Where art is valued on: - Rarity - Popularity of artist - Perceived craftsmanship then - Perceived craftmanship now - Emotional elicitation (indirectly, i.e. if we didn’t “like” or “felt” something through art it wouldn’t hold value, probably). Now cryptocurrencies: - Rarity - Popularity - Innovativeness of idea at the time - Innovativeness of idea now - The ideology that a certain coin or cryptocurrencies as a whole represent (e.g. if it didn’t have an anarchistic and innovative bend then it would be worth a lot less) - To a small extent: its utility (e.g. the unbanked using it) Obviously I am handwaving and simplifying. My point: they are more similar than you think.
mettamage 5y ago
It’s not just speculation. It’s experimentation as well. The crypto community has been really playful in how they use and define money. There are wuite a few lessons that we have learned as a society that otherwise wouldn’t be so salient. Things like: What is trust? Should we put our trust in technology instead of people? Can we build a blockchain vm? Can you censor blockchain technology? Or will people find ways around it? Bitcoin will always hold some lower bound value, because there will always be 2.1 million willing to use $10 to see what happens. Governments aren’t playful, people are. Playfulness can lead to recklessness and pain. It can also lead to artistic expression and innovation. IMO with cryptocurrencies, you see both.
mrjin 5y ago
Well, there was not such a thing as intrinsic value in neither cryptos nor in any fiats. Fiats at least are backed by the governments. For cryptos, there is nothing backing them nor would anyone really believe in them. The only potential value is to speculate. They claim to have resolved centralization issue but ironically people speculate cryptos in centralized exchanges. Centralization in financial areas are there for a reason, it just cannot be resolved by decentralization and that why people need crypto exchanges. As a matter of fact, lots of regulations are on the way, and some countries go further even try to criminalize them, which will accelerate the decline for sure. Myself actually tried to speculate BTC in late 2008 or early 2009 which I cannot remember exactly, as I was pretty sure people were going to speculate in it. It was shame that I was too early, the price was super low ($0.001 or might be $0.01) but there was no venue for me to buy any. The next time BTC returned to my sight was around 2017, the price went up to $1000. I chilled out thought those people were crazy. But it turned out they were actually much crazier than I speculated. I look forward to seeing how this drama is going to end.
angelzen 5y ago
I used to think the same way, but I now I believe BTC is here to stay. There is too much uncertainty in the mainstream monetary system. A bout of hyperinflation and everybody is wiped out. People are desperately looking for alternative value stores, even if imperfect.

whatanorigtht 5y ago

Oh wow! A prediction that bitcoin will go to zero! What an original thought!

x3sphere 5y ago

I mean that’s what happened in 2017-2018 yet again we are repeating the same bubble. I guess these crazy run ups will end at some point but I see no indication this will be the last.

mettamage 5y ago
I don’t think it will be. I talked to a person that valuates art. When I heard her talk, I felt that cryptocurrency valuation had a lot in common with it. Where art is valued on: - Rarity - Popularity of artist - Perceived craftsmanship then - Perceived craftmanship now - Emotional elicitation (indirectly, i.e. if we didn’t “like” or “felt” something through art it wouldn’t hold value, probably). Now cryptocurrencies: - Rarity - Popularity - Innovativeness of idea at the time - Innovativeness of idea now - The ideology that a certain coin or cryptocurrencies as a whole represent (e.g. if it didn’t have an anarchistic and innovative bend then it would be worth a lot less) - To a small extent: its utility (e.g. the unbanked using it) Obviously I am handwaving and simplifying. My point: they are more similar than you think.

mettamage 5y ago

It’s not just speculation. It’s experimentation as well. The crypto community has been really playful in how they use and define money. There are wuite a few lessons that we have learned as a society that otherwise wouldn’t be so salient. Things like: What is trust? Should we put our trust in technology instead of people? Can we build a blockchain vm? Can you censor blockchain technology? Or will people find ways around it? Bitcoin will always hold some lower bound value, because there will always be 2.1 million willing to use $10 to see what happens. Governments aren’t playful, people are. Playfulness can lead to recklessness and pain. It can also lead to artistic expression and innovation. IMO with cryptocurrencies, you see both.

mrjin 5y ago

Well, there was not such a thing as intrinsic value in neither cryptos nor in any fiats. Fiats at least are backed by the governments. For cryptos, there is nothing backing them nor would anyone really believe in them. The only potential value is to speculate. They claim to have resolved centralization issue but ironically people speculate cryptos in centralized exchanges. Centralization in financial areas are there for a reason, it just cannot be resolved by decentralization and that why people need crypto exchanges. As a matter of fact, lots of regulations are on the way, and some countries go further even try to criminalize them, which will accelerate the decline for sure. Myself actually tried to speculate BTC in late 2008 or early 2009 which I cannot remember exactly, as I was pretty sure people were going to speculate in it. It was shame that I was too early, the price was super low ($0.001 or might be $0.01) but there was no venue for me to buy any. The next time BTC returned to my sight was around 2017, the price went up to $1000. I chilled out thought those people were crazy. But it turned out they were actually much crazier than I speculated. I look forward to seeing how this drama is going to end.

angelzen 5y ago

I used to think the same way, but I now I believe BTC is here to stay. There is too much uncertainty in the mainstream monetary system. A bout of hyperinflation and everybody is wiped out. People are desperately looking for alternative value stores, even if imperfect.