4 ms·

Possession is nine tenths of the law. (I almost worry about Taiwan; if they are the sole source of iPhone and PC chips, then they will receive a lot of protect

Possession is nine tenths of the law. (I almost worry about Taiwan; if they are the sole source of iPhone and PC chips, then they will receive a lot of protection from other countries in the event that China invades. If we have TSMC factories in Japan and the US, then people won't care. Good for buying GPUs, bad for democracy.)

speedybird 5y ago
I also worry for Taiwan. If China chose to invade and the first invasion wave were not successfully repelled by the military assets already in the immediate area, other nations might try to intervene but few would be in a position to act immediately. "Defending Taiwan" is a tricky prospect if the PRC already invaded it yesterday; and as you say, possession is nine tenths of the law.
- stefan_ 5y ago
  I'm not sure what would be left in Taiwan after an invasion but I'm sure it doesn't include the hyper-sensitive latest-node semiconductor factory.
  - shadilay 5y ago
    Rumor has it the TSMC fabs are rigged with explosives in case of invasion. The beaches are also lined with pipes to spray fuel and prevent landing troops.
- namelessoracle 5y ago
  I thought the way the island is set up is that is that it was very difficult to make an initial amphibious push on the island with a few chokepoints that made defending it much easier for Taiwan that one might expect. And if China DID manage to break through one of those points the Island was effectively lost.
tomthe 5y ago
TSMC is a better defense than owning nuclear weapons. But also way more expensive to develop (so not really a good option for North Korea or Iran...). But for Taiwan it is vital to keep the smallest proccess on their land.
yyyk 5y ago
The decision whether the West will fight for Taiwan will not be affected by TSMC. HN crowd absurdly overestimates the need for the smallest node. At worst, the West will have a mildly smaller amount of slower chips for a few years until sufficient investment allows catching up.

speedybird 5y ago

I also worry for Taiwan. If China chose to invade and the first invasion wave were not successfully repelled by the military assets already in the immediate area, other nations might try to intervene but few would be in a position to act immediately. "Defending Taiwan" is a tricky prospect if the PRC already invaded it yesterday; and as you say, possession is nine tenths of the law.

stefan_ 5y ago
I'm not sure what would be left in Taiwan after an invasion but I'm sure it doesn't include the hyper-sensitive latest-node semiconductor factory.
- shadilay 5y ago
  Rumor has it the TSMC fabs are rigged with explosives in case of invasion. The beaches are also lined with pipes to spray fuel and prevent landing troops.
namelessoracle 5y ago
I thought the way the island is set up is that is that it was very difficult to make an initial amphibious push on the island with a few chokepoints that made defending it much easier for Taiwan that one might expect. And if China DID manage to break through one of those points the Island was effectively lost.

tomthe 5y ago

TSMC is a better defense than owning nuclear weapons. But also way more expensive to develop (so not really a good option for North Korea or Iran...). But for Taiwan it is vital to keep the smallest proccess on their land.

yyyk 5y ago

The decision whether the West will fight for Taiwan will not be affected by TSMC. HN crowd absurdly overestimates the need for the smallest node. At worst, the West will have a mildly smaller amount of slower chips for a few years until sufficient investment allows catching up.