7 ms·

So when Xi invades Taiwan and forces unification, who owns these fabs? Will there be a new tsmc-jp and tsmc-us?

jrockway 5y ago
Possession is nine tenths of the law. (I almost worry about Taiwan; if they are the sole source of iPhone and PC chips, then they will receive a lot of protection from other countries in the event that China invades. If we have TSMC factories in Japan and the US, then people won't care. Good for buying GPUs, bad for democracy.)
- speedybird 5y ago
  I also worry for Taiwan. If China chose to invade and the first invasion wave were not successfully repelled by the military assets already in the immediate area, other nations might try to intervene but few would be in a position to act immediately. "Defending Taiwan" is a tricky prospect if the PRC already invaded it yesterday; and as you say, possession is nine tenths of the law.
  - stefan_ 5y ago
    I'm not sure what would be left in Taiwan after an invasion but I'm sure it doesn't include the hyper-sensitive latest-node semiconductor factory.
    - shadilay 5y ago
      Rumor has it the TSMC fabs are rigged with explosives in case of invasion. The beaches are also lined with pipes to spray fuel and prevent landing troops.
  - namelessoracle 5y ago
    I thought the way the island is set up is that is that it was very difficult to make an initial amphibious push on the island with a few chokepoints that made defending it much easier for Taiwan that one might expect. And if China DID manage to break through one of those points the Island was effectively lost.
- tomthe 5y ago
  TSMC is a better defense than owning nuclear weapons. But also way more expensive to develop (so not really a good option for North Korea or Iran...). But for Taiwan it is vital to keep the smallest proccess on their land.
- yyyk 5y ago
  The decision whether the West will fight for Taiwan will not be affected by TSMC. HN crowd absurdly overestimates the need for the smallest node. At worst, the West will have a mildly smaller amount of slower chips for a few years until sufficient investment allows catching up.
sangnoir 5y ago
Wasn't there a Venezuelan oil company that had its American operation "secede"? I imagine a similar thing will happen then, what's HQ going to do about a rogue office that has the support of the host country?
ThrowawayR2 5y ago
From the legal perspective, the shareholders still own TSMC (by definition) and therefore still own the fabs, same as before, and the shareholders are spread out across the entire globe.
- neltnerb 5y ago
  Under which legal system? I thought that China was generally able to influence who owns domestic companies pretty much at a whim by nationalizing them, and that chip manufacturing seems like something that many countries might consider nationalizing based on how expensive they are and how critical they are. Although it seems convoluted enough that if it's not truly critical things get left alone. But chip fabs are probably critical enough that they won't get left alone.
- encoderer 5y ago
  But non-Chinese can’t own a Chinese company. All the Chinese companies on American stock markets are basically just shell companies with a “profit sharing agreement” with the underlying Chinese controlled asset. That’s why this is an interesting question to me. It doesn’t feel like we can trust the CCP to maintain the status quo any longer.
  - davedx 5y ago
    It's not quite that simple, A-shares are only for mainland investors but H-shares (listed on HK exchange) are available to trade by anyone. US based ADR's have received a lot of attention recently but they're not the only channel for foreign investment in China. BlackRock is also running a mutual fund of mainland equities.
Shadonototra 5y ago
> So when Xi invades Taiwan 'invades' is the wrong word, it's used by the propaganda machine from the UK/US please don't be politically brainwashed and use the right word; China will reclaim Taiwan on the date everyone signed
- neltnerb 5y ago
  Your complaint is whether the word "reclaim" or "invade" is used? Why do you think your word choice is right when the leader of Taiwan seems to disagree? Reclaiming something against the wishes of the local population is still invading, it just denies agency to the human beings that live there as if they agreed to that outcome. It's like the US saying they are going to liberate Iraqis when, no, it still involved an invasion... Are you arguing that the population of Taiwan actually is super into being part of the PRC and that the media makes it seem otherwise? I don't think that polling agrees with you, their actions don't seem to agree with you, my friends in Taiwan definitely don't agree with you, but obviously the media is adept at influencing public opinion. I believe it's theoretically possible, but knowing people in Taiwan and knowing their opinion makes me skeptical. I know there's sampling bias in that they are fluent in English and highly educated people who I know personally, of course.
  - encoderer 5y ago
    [flagged]
    - neltnerb 5y ago
      I agree, but do try to keep an open mind. This "reclaim" stuff seems like it really doesn't recognize the reality of the civil war at all, it just comes off as a way to make invading peaceful neighbors whose stuff you want seem like it's the status quo rather than an extreme step opposed in force by the local population. It makes no sense. I'm sure the media is biased towards prioritizing reporting about the India/China border conflict, the China/Taiwan conflict, the China/Vietnam conflict, the China/Indonesia conflict... but still, those are all significant conflicts. I buy that they're being more heavily reported on, but not that the facts are literally incorrect. It's not like I'm getting news from NPR, and the publisher definitely has no great attachement to US hegemony.
Factorium 5y ago
Hypersonic missiles should be raining down onto the Three Gorges Dam before that's allowed to happen.
- DeathArrow 5y ago
  What if Xi has faster hypersonic missiles?
  - neltnerb 5y ago
    Depends on whether the launch sites get hit before launching, this part of MAD is well understood. You just need survivability enough for a second strike (or early warning enough to render it moot).
- xster 5y ago
  "I don't hate the Chinese people, I just hate the Chinese government"
  - brezelgoring 5y ago
    That is a legitimate position to have, hating Jewish people is an antisemite/n*zi thing to do, but disagreeing with the Israeli government's decisions, is not. And is, just as the position you've described facetiously, a completely acceptable posture to have.
    - xster 5y ago
      well the GP thread is removed now so it's hard to see my point now. The position I described is facetious because people who voice that position don't accept that position and instead really advocate for the mass indiscriminate killing of Chinese people as was the case here.
  - jp0d 5y ago
    What's wrong with that?
LdSGSgvupDV 5y ago
If war did not end up quickly, all of the trade in the Western Pacific might be blocked. Japan as an upstream manufacturer of semiconductor industry might be affected by this, and needs to seek for a new channel for shipping (maybe Northeast Passage). TSMC-whatever would have raw material shortage.

Possession is nine tenths of the law. (I almost worry about Taiwan; if they are the sole source of iPhone and PC chips, then they will receive a lot of protection from other countries in the event that China invades. If we have TSMC factories in Japan and the US, then people won't care. Good for buying GPUs, bad for democracy.)

speedybird 5y ago
I also worry for Taiwan. If China chose to invade and the first invasion wave were not successfully repelled by the military assets already in the immediate area, other nations might try to intervene but few would be in a position to act immediately. "Defending Taiwan" is a tricky prospect if the PRC already invaded it yesterday; and as you say, possession is nine tenths of the law.
- stefan_ 5y ago
  I'm not sure what would be left in Taiwan after an invasion but I'm sure it doesn't include the hyper-sensitive latest-node semiconductor factory.
  - shadilay 5y ago
    Rumor has it the TSMC fabs are rigged with explosives in case of invasion. The beaches are also lined with pipes to spray fuel and prevent landing troops.
- namelessoracle 5y ago
  I thought the way the island is set up is that is that it was very difficult to make an initial amphibious push on the island with a few chokepoints that made defending it much easier for Taiwan that one might expect. And if China DID manage to break through one of those points the Island was effectively lost.
tomthe 5y ago
TSMC is a better defense than owning nuclear weapons. But also way more expensive to develop (so not really a good option for North Korea or Iran...). But for Taiwan it is vital to keep the smallest proccess on their land.
yyyk 5y ago
The decision whether the West will fight for Taiwan will not be affected by TSMC. HN crowd absurdly overestimates the need for the smallest node. At worst, the West will have a mildly smaller amount of slower chips for a few years until sufficient investment allows catching up.

sangnoir 5y ago

Wasn't there a Venezuelan oil company that had its American operation "secede"? I imagine a similar thing will happen then, what's HQ going to do about a rogue office that has the support of the host country?

ThrowawayR2 5y ago

From the legal perspective, the shareholders still own TSMC (by definition) and therefore still own the fabs, same as before, and the shareholders are spread out across the entire globe.

neltnerb 5y ago
Under which legal system? I thought that China was generally able to influence who owns domestic companies pretty much at a whim by nationalizing them, and that chip manufacturing seems like something that many countries might consider nationalizing based on how expensive they are and how critical they are. Although it seems convoluted enough that if it's not truly critical things get left alone. But chip fabs are probably critical enough that they won't get left alone.
encoderer 5y ago
But non-Chinese can’t own a Chinese company. All the Chinese companies on American stock markets are basically just shell companies with a “profit sharing agreement” with the underlying Chinese controlled asset. That’s why this is an interesting question to me. It doesn’t feel like we can trust the CCP to maintain the status quo any longer.
- davedx 5y ago
  It's not quite that simple, A-shares are only for mainland investors but H-shares (listed on HK exchange) are available to trade by anyone. US based ADR's have received a lot of attention recently but they're not the only channel for foreign investment in China. BlackRock is also running a mutual fund of mainland equities.

Shadonototra 5y ago

> So when Xi invades Taiwan 'invades' is the wrong word, it's used by the propaganda machine from the UK/US please don't be politically brainwashed and use the right word; China will reclaim Taiwan on the date everyone signed

neltnerb 5y ago
Your complaint is whether the word "reclaim" or "invade" is used? Why do you think your word choice is right when the leader of Taiwan seems to disagree? Reclaiming something against the wishes of the local population is still invading, it just denies agency to the human beings that live there as if they agreed to that outcome. It's like the US saying they are going to liberate Iraqis when, no, it still involved an invasion... Are you arguing that the population of Taiwan actually is super into being part of the PRC and that the media makes it seem otherwise? I don't think that polling agrees with you, their actions don't seem to agree with you, my friends in Taiwan definitely don't agree with you, but obviously the media is adept at influencing public opinion. I believe it's theoretically possible, but knowing people in Taiwan and knowing their opinion makes me skeptical. I know there's sampling bias in that they are fluent in English and highly educated people who I know personally, of course.
- encoderer 5y ago
  [flagged]
  - neltnerb 5y ago
    I agree, but do try to keep an open mind. This "reclaim" stuff seems like it really doesn't recognize the reality of the civil war at all, it just comes off as a way to make invading peaceful neighbors whose stuff you want seem like it's the status quo rather than an extreme step opposed in force by the local population. It makes no sense. I'm sure the media is biased towards prioritizing reporting about the India/China border conflict, the China/Taiwan conflict, the China/Vietnam conflict, the China/Indonesia conflict... but still, those are all significant conflicts. I buy that they're being more heavily reported on, but not that the facts are literally incorrect. It's not like I'm getting news from NPR, and the publisher definitely has no great attachement to US hegemony.

Factorium 5y ago

Hypersonic missiles should be raining down onto the Three Gorges Dam before that's allowed to happen.

DeathArrow 5y ago
What if Xi has faster hypersonic missiles?
- neltnerb 5y ago
  Depends on whether the launch sites get hit before launching, this part of MAD is well understood. You just need survivability enough for a second strike (or early warning enough to render it moot).
xster 5y ago
"I don't hate the Chinese people, I just hate the Chinese government"
- brezelgoring 5y ago
  That is a legitimate position to have, hating Jewish people is an antisemite/n*zi thing to do, but disagreeing with the Israeli government's decisions, is not. And is, just as the position you've described facetiously, a completely acceptable posture to have.
  - xster 5y ago
    well the GP thread is removed now so it's hard to see my point now. The position I described is facetious because people who voice that position don't accept that position and instead really advocate for the mass indiscriminate killing of Chinese people as was the case here.
- jp0d 5y ago
  What's wrong with that?

LdSGSgvupDV 5y ago

If war did not end up quickly, all of the trade in the Western Pacific might be blocked. Japan as an upstream manufacturer of semiconductor industry might be affected by this, and needs to seek for a new channel for shipping (maybe Northeast Passage). TSMC-whatever would have raw material shortage.