4 ms·
The counter perspective is that some amount of degrowth will happen eventually. And in the west, decades of austerity have led to oppressive working conditions
by wayoutthere 5y ago
The counter perspective is that some amount of degrowth will happen eventually. And in the west, decades of austerity have led to oppressive working conditions to the point people aren’t having children. We’re already seeing this effect on the workforce; my hypothesis is that much of the worker shortage is due to older workers dying from Covid or simply retiring and there aren’t enough millennials and Gen Z to fill the jobs at the bottom of the hierarchy after everyone shifts up.
We cannot continue increasing productivity exponentially forever, and likely not for a whole lot longer. We’re already seeing the system collapsing in on itself — the supply chain woes we’re seeing right now are IMO the result of over-optimization over the last 3 decades. Infinite growth assumes there’s an ample workforce. When birth rates are below replacement levels, that’s not a good assumption.
We need to take a mindset of “what is the most productive way to optimize the limited and shrinking resources we have” rather than “how do we keep productivity growing forever”. Otherwise unrest will grow, and it’s a lot easier to smash a broken system than it is to maintain one.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y agoYes, but at the point 'degrowth' surviving companies will likely be the most productive companies bar government bailouts. I don't really disagree with you for the most part. I just really see negative birth rates as inherently bad things.
- wayoutthere 5y agoWell either one of two things are going to happen in a “shrinking pool” global economic environment: governments will go hard populist left (likely to communism, which actually makes sense in a world where long-term degrowth or stagflation is likely), or a handful of mega corporations become the de-facto world government which allows them to continue productivity growth at all costs (read: the death of billions of poor people from lack of water / food). Either way, the second half of this century is going to be bleak. That’s the other reason young people aren’t having kids: why bring them into a world that’s likely to be pretty awful?
- the_greyd 5y agoAnyone interested in declining birth rates, just take a look at the statistics in South Korea. 42% of the women in their 30s are unmarried (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/pxotg9/over_42_of_south_koreans_in_their_30s_unmarried/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/pxotg9/over_42_o...). That's almost half! Our infinite growth systems will collapse, unless countries make it easier for women to raise a family.
- janandonly 5y agoAt 27 my grandad had 0 qualifications, a house, a wife, and 3 kids supported on a sergeant's salary. At 27 I just finished postgrad professional qualifications and share a 2 bed flat with 2 friends. I lose 65% of my income to taxes and rent and have 10sqft personal space. Avg house prices are 9x salary vs 4.5x in the 70s, so it takes a long time to save up to get started. Let's talk solutions. 1) Govt needs to stop propping up housing market 2) Govt needs to relax planning and allow more houses to get built 3) NIMBYs must be stopped 4) Workers deserve fairer wages 5) To do that, boomers need to pay more of their costs 6) More social housing source: https://nitter.net/TypeForVictory/status/1443850540614668299#m https://nitter.net/TypeForVictory/status/1443850540614668299...
- kjkjadksj 5y agoIts even worse in the US where over 50% of adults are single.
- prewett 5y agoWhat percentage of adults are childless, though?
- kjkjadksj 5y ago71%, up nearly 20 points since the 60s https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/08/more-adults-living-without-children.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/08/more-adults-l...
- wayoutthere 5y ago