3 ms·

No, correct way around. Rollout of renewables to the scale that nuclear can achieve in 5-20 years is practically impossible. The best time to plant a tree was

No, correct way around. Rollout of renewables to the scale that nuclear can achieve in 5-20 years is practically impossible. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

pjc50 5y ago
> the scale that nuclear can achieve in 5-20 years This is just fantasy. "Can" is a very long way away from "will". And almost all of the reactor projects currently under construction have time and cost overruns. The best case for the UK in five years is that we manage to finish constructing one (1) reactor that is currently under construction.
- jamesrom 5y ago
  “Can” is a very long way from “will”. But “impossible” is even further. That’s my point.
- ben_w 5y ago
  Worse yet, it is the only one of eight plants announced by the government in 2010 to have actually begun construction (which started at the end of 2018). And 2010 wasn’t even the first government announcement about wanting a new reactor.
ben_w 5y ago
Wind and PV grew by roughly 200-240 gigawatts in 2020. Total current worldwide civilian nuclear reactor electrical capacity is about 400 gigawatts, with another 60 GW under construction and about 100 GW planned. Even if renewables stop their current exponential growth and only grow linearly, even assuming a mere 25% capacity factor for renewables and 100% for nuclear (neither of which is true), even assuming all currently planned and under construction reactors are completed and no existing reactors are turned off, renewables still exceed nuclear by about 2028. I’m expecting it to be a lot sooner than that because I expect the two (different) exponential trends in PV and wind to continue for at least another doubling period. I’m still in favour of expanding nuclear power: it’s much safer than generally believed, it saves on storage requirements and intercontinental HVDC (we might get enough battery factories or extra copper/aluminium mines in time but I don’t want to count chickens before they’re hatched), and while it’s expensive it is (currently) still cheaper than batteries. But I’m not expecting nuclear to be a big player, I just like diversity of supply for its own sake.

pjc50 5y ago

> the scale that nuclear can achieve in 5-20 years This is just fantasy. "Can" is a very long way away from "will". And almost all of the reactor projects currently under construction have time and cost overruns. The best case for the UK in five years is that we manage to finish constructing one (1) reactor that is currently under construction.

jamesrom 5y ago
“Can” is a very long way from “will”. But “impossible” is even further. That’s my point.
ben_w 5y ago
Worse yet, it is the only one of eight plants announced by the government in 2010 to have actually begun construction (which started at the end of 2018). And 2010 wasn’t even the first government announcement about wanting a new reactor.

ben_w 5y ago

Wind and PV grew by roughly 200-240 gigawatts in 2020. Total current worldwide civilian nuclear reactor electrical capacity is about 400 gigawatts, with another 60 GW under construction and about 100 GW planned. Even if renewables stop their current exponential growth and only grow linearly, even assuming a mere 25% capacity factor for renewables and 100% for nuclear (neither of which is true), even assuming all currently planned and under construction reactors are completed and no existing reactors are turned off, renewables still exceed nuclear by about 2028. I’m expecting it to be a lot sooner than that because I expect the two (different) exponential trends in PV and wind to continue for at least another doubling period. I’m still in favour of expanding nuclear power: it’s much safer than generally believed, it saves on storage requirements and intercontinental HVDC (we might get enough battery factories or extra copper/aluminium mines in time but I don’t want to count chickens before they’re hatched), and while it’s expensive it is (currently) still cheaper than batteries. But I’m not expecting nuclear to be a big player, I just like diversity of supply for its own sake.