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Not if they can’t find anyone willing to learn COBOL. There’s huge demand for developers on modern systems. Seriously, how much are you going to pay a develope

Not if they can’t find anyone willing to learn COBOL. There’s huge demand for developers on modern systems. Seriously, how much are you going to pay a developer to do mainframe COBOL - and is that developer going to produce commensurate value, really able to hold together a crumbling antique infrastructure?

_8j50 5y ago
Plenty of people working helpdesk that know a bit of python who can learn COBOL if they knew a job offer was on the other end of the investment in learning the language. There are hoards of people learning python and powershell just so they can make more money, trust me when I say they (the people I see learning python for career prospects) have no sentimental attachment to the language.
- noduerme 5y ago
  I don't think it's learning COBOL language that's the hard part. An inexperienced programmer who hasn't worked on financial systems is going to make security mistakes and write buggy code for awhile, both of which can be deadly to a bank. But it would be better to have that person rewrite the infrastructure than try to fix bugs. The problem with these ancient systems is trying to understand how bugs arise from subtle unintended interactions within millions of lines of code. I've been coding many languages for 25 years and I would consider it extremely daunting to try to tackle a bank bug knowing that one wrong assumption about one line of code could crash whole systems or cost millions of dollars.
  - mandelbrotwurst 5y ago
    Eh, someone's got to do it. Letting thing stagnate in perpetuity isn't cheap either. Move slowly and write tests.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      Sure, but a veteran coder at least understands that tampering with something may affect some other subsystem you don't even know exists until it breaks... which you wouldn't even think to test. The idea of throwing the phone staff into COBOL instead of them learning Python just obfuscates the real problem which isn't that the language is uncool and dying but that the systems are like the rules of the NFL. They stopped making sense a long time ago to anyone who wasn't immersed and paying attention.
      - mandelbrotwurst 5y ago
        Ah, yeah, fully agree - I just saw your mention of having 25 years experience, which made me think basically "if not you, then who?" I didn’t intend to imply that the problem could be solved by an army of people fresh out of boot camps with no senior level supervision. I'm also realizing now that just because you "would consider it extremely daunting" does not necessarily mean that you don't think you could be a net positive contributor.
missedthecue 5y ago
Fwiw, one of the highest paid coders I ever knew worked for a big stuffy bank. He was unfireable because he was the only one that knew the internal systems as well as he did. Learning COBOL may be a huge long term competitive advantage in the workforce, especially if the current dotcom-esque funny money dries up.
rsj_hn 5y ago
For enough money they will find someone willing to learn COBOL.
- ctdonath 5y ago
  Will they learn enough COBOL to be worth the money? Seeing how hard it is to find good mobile developers, and having lived in a COBOL shop back in the heyday, I don’t see a meaningful number of talented “show me the money” types passing up modern tech for antiques.
- JohnBooty 5y ago
  Maybe, or maybe not. Suppose you accept 1.5x or 2x or even 3x your annual salary to take a COBOL job. Nice... for now. What happens in 2, 5, or 10 years when this COBOL gig ends? Now your skills have withered or disappeared and you're 2, 5, or 10 years behind when it comes to "modern" technologies where 99.9% of the job opportunities are. In a sense, that COBOL job is a gamble. You are gambling that you can ride that sucker until retirement. Of course there are other possibilities. You could sock most of that extra $$$ away and spend a year retraining yourself, or something, if/when that COBOL job ends. Or whatever.
  - itronitron 5y ago
    I'd rather learn COBOL and get paid 2x salary for the next 5 years than learn some BS JS framework that I'll have to forget in the same timeframe.
    - dntrkv 5y ago
      React has been around for 8 years and isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
      - roenxi 5y ago
        Staking a career on something that has existed for only 8 years is a huge gamble. Most people build careers around concepts and tools that have existed anywhere from decades to millennia.
itronitron 5y ago
>> crumbling antique infrastructure Are you talking about the hardware or software? It's worth considering that Lindy's Law [1] might apply here. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

_8j50 5y ago

Plenty of people working helpdesk that know a bit of python who can learn COBOL if they knew a job offer was on the other end of the investment in learning the language. There are hoards of people learning python and powershell just so they can make more money, trust me when I say they (the people I see learning python for career prospects) have no sentimental attachment to the language.

noduerme 5y ago
I don't think it's learning COBOL language that's the hard part. An inexperienced programmer who hasn't worked on financial systems is going to make security mistakes and write buggy code for awhile, both of which can be deadly to a bank. But it would be better to have that person rewrite the infrastructure than try to fix bugs. The problem with these ancient systems is trying to understand how bugs arise from subtle unintended interactions within millions of lines of code. I've been coding many languages for 25 years and I would consider it extremely daunting to try to tackle a bank bug knowing that one wrong assumption about one line of code could crash whole systems or cost millions of dollars.
- mandelbrotwurst 5y ago
  Eh, someone's got to do it. Letting thing stagnate in perpetuity isn't cheap either. Move slowly and write tests.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    Sure, but a veteran coder at least understands that tampering with something may affect some other subsystem you don't even know exists until it breaks... which you wouldn't even think to test. The idea of throwing the phone staff into COBOL instead of them learning Python just obfuscates the real problem which isn't that the language is uncool and dying but that the systems are like the rules of the NFL. They stopped making sense a long time ago to anyone who wasn't immersed and paying attention.
    - mandelbrotwurst 5y ago
      Ah, yeah, fully agree - I just saw your mention of having 25 years experience, which made me think basically "if not you, then who?" I didn’t intend to imply that the problem could be solved by an army of people fresh out of boot camps with no senior level supervision. I'm also realizing now that just because you "would consider it extremely daunting" does not necessarily mean that you don't think you could be a net positive contributor.

missedthecue 5y ago

Fwiw, one of the highest paid coders I ever knew worked for a big stuffy bank. He was unfireable because he was the only one that knew the internal systems as well as he did. Learning COBOL may be a huge long term competitive advantage in the workforce, especially if the current dotcom-esque funny money dries up.

rsj_hn 5y ago

For enough money they will find someone willing to learn COBOL.

ctdonath 5y ago
Will they learn enough COBOL to be worth the money? Seeing how hard it is to find good mobile developers, and having lived in a COBOL shop back in the heyday, I don’t see a meaningful number of talented “show me the money” types passing up modern tech for antiques.
JohnBooty 5y ago
Maybe, or maybe not. Suppose you accept 1.5x or 2x or even 3x your annual salary to take a COBOL job. Nice... for now. What happens in 2, 5, or 10 years when this COBOL gig ends? Now your skills have withered or disappeared and you're 2, 5, or 10 years behind when it comes to "modern" technologies where 99.9% of the job opportunities are. In a sense, that COBOL job is a gamble. You are gambling that you can ride that sucker until retirement. Of course there are other possibilities. You could sock most of that extra $$$ away and spend a year retraining yourself, or something, if/when that COBOL job ends. Or whatever.
- itronitron 5y ago
  I'd rather learn COBOL and get paid 2x salary for the next 5 years than learn some BS JS framework that I'll have to forget in the same timeframe.
  - dntrkv 5y ago
    React has been around for 8 years and isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
    - roenxi 5y ago
      Staking a career on something that has existed for only 8 years is a huge gamble. Most people build careers around concepts and tools that have existed anywhere from decades to millennia.

itronitron 5y ago

>> crumbling antique infrastructure Are you talking about the hardware or software? It's worth considering that Lindy's Law [1] might apply here. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect