I love this article! These types of articles are the signs the market is about to turn over. The eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance programs [i]just[/

I love this article! These types of articles are the signs the market is about to turn over. The eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance programs [i]just[/i] ended. It will take some time for the contagion from those programs to propagate thru the housing market. Secondly, you can not get massive inflation with the velocity of money in the dumps[1]. Probabilistically, we are going to see stagflation until demand drops off due to higher prices and supply chains normalize. With "free" money drying up from "stimulus" packages, the demand for goods and services should wane in the coming months. There are various charts that show this starting to happen now. (Steve Van Metre on Youtube is good for macro stuff) Thirdly, I recently watched a video from the Global Labor Org. [2] that made a few bold claims. One of which was, the US is probably already in another recession with consumer sentiment being the "tell." Interesting stuff. The methods are non-traditional to arrive at this conclusion and time will tell if they are bold and right or bold and wrong. I happen to believe they are right... Anecdotally, I work the streets as EMS and Fire for my city, blue collar... but stable and can make SWE money with overtime. I worked through the GFC of 2008 and I see soooo many similarities, mostly in my colleagues at the station. Lots of them buy the most house they can afford monthly while living on the edge of personal solvency. They extract money from the property via HELOC to buy toys and remodel endlessly. If rates rise even a tiny bit, that party comes to a screeching halt. "Assets" are dumped at fire sale prices or they will simply walk away, ala 2008-09. Yes, blackrock is buying thousands of properties, no one that pays attention will dispute that. However, we don't know how exposed these hedge funds are to the Evergrande collapse contagion that will spread like Covid in the coming months (ironic, no?). If these hedge funds are leveraged to the gills with bad paper, they will collapse and the houses will be sold at fire sale prices. My money is on the whole thing being exposed in ways we do not comprehend.... yet. [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V [2]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-jmDyg0AcE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-jmDyg0AcE