6 ms·
So wrong. 1. Population is growing -> sure worldwide, but projected to start declining by mid century. In addition, Japan, Italy and other places are already i
by 8teapi 5y ago
So wrong.
1. Population is growing -> sure worldwide, but projected to start declining by mid century. In addition, Japan, Italy and other places are already in decline. Japanese home prices have been almost flat for 30 years. Tokyo has no zoning and you can build what you want. If you live in the developed world, East Asia, China, etc you are going to witness declines if you don't have immigration
2. People are moving to cities -> Were. Covid has allowed a lot more flexibility. First tier city residents moving to second tier and rural areas with good internet service. Real reversal of the last twenty years.
3. More people are living alone -> sure because there are fewer of them. Direct contradiction of point 1 by the way.
4. Multiple house ownership. So what?
5. Housing construction isn't keeping up. Sure. But that can be fixed if there is political willpower.
6. Material shortages and building costs. -> We were just in oversupply of materials post '08 financial crisis. We could be again. Just focused investment on production of materials. Land.. If you have Hong Kong density, the entire US population could squeeze into a corner of the state of Texas.
7. Sure inflation is soaring, but can come down again, with higher interest rates, which would also absolutely slaughter leveraged real estate investors.
8 Weird thing on the monopolists... They were already financing 90% of house anyway with debt. You were paying a rental equivalent called a mortgage. Now they're financing 100%, and you still pay a rental equivalent.
9 Outrageous leverage - individual homeowners have way better leverage. 30 year fixed mortgage with the option to refi to lower interest rates if they are available. Corporates don't get to access that. What's really happened is that post '08 financing disappeared for buyers with low credit scores.
The Solution is Simple
1. Get rid of most single family zoning
2. Create incentives and penalties such that cities with higher real estate prices build more housing of all kinds
3. More supply everywhere
- asauter 5y agoIdeally you don't want prices to go down, less we get a deflationary spiral, you want more equal distribution AND inflation to be greater than the interest rate, which reduces Debt burden. First time home buyers can put down 3% for conventional loan, provided it is not a jumbo loan maybe it should be more aggressive to advantage new entrants who haven't had housing debt during this remarkable rate decline (price increase) over last 40 years... I think we should invert the regressive taxes: prop 13, MITD (trump partly fixed) and capital gain exemption, others?
- inter_netuser 5y agoSo wrong. 7 - real rates aren't going up any time soon, they simply don't have much room, government would default. What will happen is that nominal rates will rise, but real rates will remain negative and leveraged real estate investors (both homeowners and RE corps) will be in fact propped up by continued low rate regime. Several central bank governors have made it painfully explicit that they do not care one bit about housing market exploding due to low rates. 8 - wrong. renters don't get any equity. not even close to an equivalence. 9 - wrong. the assertion is that institutional investors have worse access to cheap credit than joe sixpack - really? the govt decided to handicap JPM/BlackRock/etc to help the small guy? whatever you are smoking, i'd like a lifetime supply please.