4 ms·

So, which country is "COUNTRY1"? It seems like it would almost have to be Russia (or another potential adversary), but why would they then turn over his letter

So, which country is "COUNTRY1"? It seems like it would almost have to be Russia (or another potential adversary), but why would they then turn over his letter to the FBI?

stevenwoo 5y ago
Several news sources reported his contact was an FBI agent pretending to be a foreign agent.
- jasonhansel 5y ago
  From the text of the complaint: > On or about December 20, 2020, the FBI’s attaché (“LEGAT”) in COUNTRY1 obtained a package representatives from COUNTRY1 had received in April 2020 through a mail carrier from the U.S. by an unidentified subject in an attempt to establish a covert relationship. It sounds like he tried to contact a foreign country, that country turned him over to the FBI, and then an undercover FBI agent pretended to be an agent of that country.
- detaro 5y ago
  Yes, after the FBI got handed the documents by the mystery country.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
detaro 5y ago
If they didn't think there was a high chance of getting anything good from the guy, or expected a high chance of him getting caught nevertheless, why not score some political points by being nice instead?
- xxpor 5y ago
  Even if the risk of getting caught were low, for France (if it actually was France), the strategic risk of stealing the US nuclear subs' secrets is astronomical. Why in the world would they take that risk?
  - detaro 5y ago
    yeah, for nominal allies like France that calculus looks way shifted.
  - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
    > the strategic risk of stealing the US nuclear subs' secrets is astronomical The risk is none. What is going to happen exactly? France probably routinely try to steal military secrets from the USA. That's business as usual for modern countries. The USA spies on all its allies. There was a minor scandal at the beginning of the year because it leaked that Denmark helped them spy on Germany.
    - xxpor 5y ago
      The risk is asymmetric. France relies on the US for defense. The US does not rely on France. Therefore, it's unsurprising when the US spies on France (or Germany or other NATO ally).
      - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
        > France relies on the US for defense. They mostly rely on their nukes, their nuclear submarines and their army and their extensive diplomatic ties. France has some moderate capacity of projection. They would be fine defending themselves. Eastern Europe relies on the USA for its protection, Germany somewhat does but actually would likely be fine without, France does not. That’s why they can say NATO is brain dead and push for more strategic autonomy in the EU. And what will the USA do anyway. Withdraw their support because they are spied upon? What would they stand to gain from that?
WastingMyTime89 5y ago
It’s an ally country with a foreign language and of which a navy engineer thinks they might be interested in nuclear secrets from the USA. France or Israel?
- koheripbal 5y ago
  Not Israel. They would have communicated in English.
- caf 5y ago
  Japan or Taiwan are also possibilities, or some left-field options like Sweden. I think France should be the short-priced favourite though.
r721 5y ago
There is a theory on Twitter it's France: >Theory: The redacted country is France, which appears to have collaborated with the FBI on this investigation. >This would explain even more so why France viewed the AUKUS deal as such a betrayal >The indictment strongly implies that the country already posses nuclear subs. >That means Russia, China, India, UK and France. First 3 wouldn’t cooperate with us. And he wouldn’t contact UK. That leaves… France >Oh. And he told his fake handler that he wants to one day meet them in a cafe and have a bottle of wine. Case closed https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1447324061667930116 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1447324061667930116
- anonu 5y ago
  That's a good theory. He also apologizes for a badly translated email early on. Which would rule out the UK.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
floam 5y ago
What I noticed reading through the affidavit is that the undercover agents were obviously pretending to have not quite native English, by dropping classifiers like "a", "an", or "the" here and there. That's something not uncommon with Russians. However, at one point the guy explains to them: The [REDACTED] is the [REDACTED] provided to US Navy crews. How to operate [REDACTED]. How to [REDACTED]. Troubleshooting Problems. Routine Maintenance. Your naval experts will be able to adapt these procedures to fit your own operations. Operating a [REDACTED] has many unique aspects, and these [REDACTED] reflect decades of U.S. Navy "lessons learned" that will help keep your sailors safe. Russia doesn't seem like the country that would need help with materials outlining best practices. China? Here's something else I noticed: [REDACTED] 7919 pages (4 pages per sheet). The [REDACTED] reports the detailed results of all [REDACTED] done to predict the behavior of the [REDACTED] during normal [REDACTED]. The REDACTED] also documents the design basis assumptions used to carry out these analvses. Your technical experts should be able to use this information and the (REDACTED] to verify the results using their own [REDACTED] codes. This really piqued my interest. To predict the behavior of...? What are the codes? And these analyses? So I did a Google wildcard search "behavior of * during normal *" "codes" and believe I identified the jargon. High-fidelity and accurate nuclear system codes play a key role in the design and analysis of complex nuclear power plants. RELAP/SCDAPSIM is a best-estimate nuclear tool designed to analyze the behaviour of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions. High-fidelity and accurate nuclear system codes play a key role in the design and analysis of complex nuclear power plants. Among such multiple subsystems, the behaviors of the reactor core (and its fuel, burnable poisons, control elements, etc.), the reactor internal structures, the vessel, and the energy conversion subsystem and beyond to grid demand affect to each one of them. Generally, the interplay between these various subsystems is modeled by the use of coupled codes, and in this matter, the most common is that of thermal-hydraulics and neutronics codes. As regards this issue, the present paper introduces the new features (NIRK3D and 3DKIN) that have been added to RELAP/SCAPDSIM/MOD4.0 There isn't really a any utterance that explains motivations, but I imagine he is telling himself he is helping adversaries make their subs safer. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221915511_Safety_Studies_and_General_Simulations_of_Research_Reactors_Using_Nuclear_Codes https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221915511_Safety_St... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328499091_CANDU_6_Accident_Analysis_Using_RELAPSCDAPSIM_With_the_Integrated_Uncertainty_Package/link/5c3c5d95a6fdccd6b5ab452d/download https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328499091_CANDU_6_A... https://www.researchgate.net/profile/C-Allison/publication/313743324_Coupling_of_RELAP5-SCDAP_MOD40_and_Neutronic_Codes/links/58aafa4592851cf0e3ca23a7/Coupling-of-RELAP5-SCDAP-MOD40-and-Neutronic-Codes.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/C-Allison/publication/3... This though, gave me a belly laugh: Thank you for your partnership as well, my friend. One day, when it is safe, perhaps two old friends will have a chance to stumble into each other at a cafe, share a bottle of wine and laugh over stories of their shared exploits... Oh man, you sad fuck. You were never going to make an old friend.

So, which country is "COUNTRY1"? It seems like it would almost have to be Russia (or another potential adversary), but why would they then turn over his letter to the FBI?

stevenwoo 5y ago

Several news sources reported his contact was an FBI agent pretending to be a foreign agent.

jasonhansel 5y ago
From the text of the complaint: > On or about December 20, 2020, the FBI’s attaché (“LEGAT”) in COUNTRY1 obtained a package representatives from COUNTRY1 had received in April 2020 through a mail carrier from the U.S. by an unidentified subject in an attempt to establish a covert relationship. It sounds like he tried to contact a foreign country, that country turned him over to the FBI, and then an undercover FBI agent pretended to be an agent of that country.
detaro 5y ago
Yes, after the FBI got handed the documents by the mystery country.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

detaro 5y ago

If they didn't think there was a high chance of getting anything good from the guy, or expected a high chance of him getting caught nevertheless, why not score some political points by being nice instead?

xxpor 5y ago
Even if the risk of getting caught were low, for France (if it actually was France), the strategic risk of stealing the US nuclear subs' secrets is astronomical. Why in the world would they take that risk?
- detaro 5y ago
  yeah, for nominal allies like France that calculus looks way shifted.
- WastingMyTime89 5y ago
  > the strategic risk of stealing the US nuclear subs' secrets is astronomical The risk is none. What is going to happen exactly? France probably routinely try to steal military secrets from the USA. That's business as usual for modern countries. The USA spies on all its allies. There was a minor scandal at the beginning of the year because it leaked that Denmark helped them spy on Germany.
  - xxpor 5y ago
    The risk is asymmetric. France relies on the US for defense. The US does not rely on France. Therefore, it's unsurprising when the US spies on France (or Germany or other NATO ally).
    - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
      > France relies on the US for defense. They mostly rely on their nukes, their nuclear submarines and their army and their extensive diplomatic ties. France has some moderate capacity of projection. They would be fine defending themselves. Eastern Europe relies on the USA for its protection, Germany somewhat does but actually would likely be fine without, France does not. That’s why they can say NATO is brain dead and push for more strategic autonomy in the EU. And what will the USA do anyway. Withdraw their support because they are spied upon? What would they stand to gain from that?

WastingMyTime89 5y ago

It’s an ally country with a foreign language and of which a navy engineer thinks they might be interested in nuclear secrets from the USA. France or Israel?

koheripbal 5y ago
Not Israel. They would have communicated in English.
caf 5y ago
Japan or Taiwan are also possibilities, or some left-field options like Sweden. I think France should be the short-priced favourite though.

r721 5y ago

There is a theory on Twitter it's France: >Theory: The redacted country is France, which appears to have collaborated with the FBI on this investigation. >This would explain even more so why France viewed the AUKUS deal as such a betrayal >The indictment strongly implies that the country already posses nuclear subs. >That means Russia, China, India, UK and France. First 3 wouldn’t cooperate with us. And he wouldn’t contact UK. That leaves… France >Oh. And he told his fake handler that he wants to one day meet them in a cafe and have a bottle of wine. Case closed https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1447324061667930116 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1447324061667930116

anonu 5y ago
That's a good theory. He also apologizes for a badly translated email early on. Which would rule out the UK.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

floam 5y ago

What I noticed reading through the affidavit is that the undercover agents were obviously pretending to have not quite native English, by dropping classifiers like "a", "an", or "the" here and there. That's something not uncommon with Russians. However, at one point the guy explains to them: The [REDACTED] is the [REDACTED] provided to US Navy crews. How to operate [REDACTED]. How to [REDACTED]. Troubleshooting Problems. Routine Maintenance. Your naval experts will be able to adapt these procedures to fit your own operations. Operating a [REDACTED] has many unique aspects, and these [REDACTED] reflect decades of U.S. Navy "lessons learned" that will help keep your sailors safe. Russia doesn't seem like the country that would need help with materials outlining best practices. China? Here's something else I noticed: [REDACTED] 7919 pages (4 pages per sheet). The [REDACTED] reports the detailed results of all [REDACTED] done to predict the behavior of the [REDACTED] during normal [REDACTED]. The REDACTED] also documents the design basis assumptions used to carry out these analvses. Your technical experts should be able to use this information and the (REDACTED] to verify the results using their own [REDACTED] codes. This really piqued my interest. To predict the behavior of...? What are the codes? And these analyses? So I did a Google wildcard search "behavior of * during normal *" "codes" and believe I identified the jargon. High-fidelity and accurate nuclear system codes play a key role in the design and analysis of complex nuclear power plants. RELAP/SCDAPSIM is a best-estimate nuclear tool designed to analyze the behaviour of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions. High-fidelity and accurate nuclear system codes play a key role in the design and analysis of complex nuclear power plants. Among such multiple subsystems, the behaviors of the reactor core (and its fuel, burnable poisons, control elements, etc.), the reactor internal structures, the vessel, and the energy conversion subsystem and beyond to grid demand affect to each one of them. Generally, the interplay between these various subsystems is modeled by the use of coupled codes, and in this matter, the most common is that of thermal-hydraulics and neutronics codes. As regards this issue, the present paper introduces the new features (NIRK3D and 3DKIN) that have been added to RELAP/SCAPDSIM/MOD4.0 There isn't really a any utterance that explains motivations, but I imagine he is telling himself he is helping adversaries make their subs safer. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221915511_Safety_Studies_and_General_Simulations_of_Research_Reactors_Using_Nuclear_Codes https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221915511_Safety_St... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328499091_CANDU_6_Accident_Analysis_Using_RELAPSCDAPSIM_With_the_Integrated_Uncertainty_Package/link/5c3c5d95a6fdccd6b5ab452d/download https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328499091_CANDU_6_A... https://www.researchgate.net/profile/C-Allison/publication/313743324_Coupling_of_RELAP5-SCDAP_MOD40_and_Neutronic_Codes/links/58aafa4592851cf0e3ca23a7/Coupling-of-RELAP5-SCDAP-MOD40-and-Neutronic-Codes.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/C-Allison/publication/3... This though, gave me a belly laugh: Thank you for your partnership as well, my friend. One day, when it is safe, perhaps two old friends will have a chance to stumble into each other at a cafe, share a bottle of wine and laugh over stories of their shared exploits... Oh man, you sad fuck. You were never going to make an old friend.