5 ms·

I believe that everybody will have a least one "cloud storage" account. Actually probably multiple "cloud storage" accounts since cloud storage providers will t

by sdizdar 15y ago

I believe that everybody will have a least one "cloud storage" account. Actually probably multiple "cloud storage" accounts since cloud storage providers will try to specialize and differentiate (i.e., you will have Google Docs account, Dropbox account, iCloud account, etc.). So 21M is a conservative number. And don't forget companies of all sizes are going into cloud: so replace 21 million users with 21 millin users via their employeer. (Ever tried sharing documents using MS SharePoint?)

georgemcbay 15y ago
I believe that cloud storage accounts will find widespread usage, I just don't think it is a $5 billion industry. I think it is more something that will exist as a free bonus within some other business model (eg. buy one Amazon album, get many gigs for free, or use Google Docs storage so google can have even more info on you for ad targeting). In short, I think Dropbox got on to something big early on, but they will eventually be like the early Netscape of this area.... Other competitors are pretty much guaranteed to come in and erode their value with "free" (enough) alternatives that exist to prop up other business models.
- gruseom 15y ago
  Dropbox got on to something big early on Early on? Just the opposite. The space was so saturated that new entries into it were considered a cliche joke. http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2008/05/01.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2008/05/01.html The other great example of successful late entry into a saturated space, of course, is Google.
  - georgemcbay 15y ago
    I'm an enthusiastic Live Mesh supporter that has been using Live Mesh from the beginning, so I'm aware that Dropbox (or Mesh for that matter) is not the first way to share files over the Internet, but none of what Joel is talking about in that piece was really both consumer facing and as simple as "run the app and forget about it" back then, so it is basically irrelevant to the value Dropbox (and the current Live Mesh) bring to the table. Claiming the existence of those older services diminishes the value of Dropbox (or current Live Mesh, etc) is like saying that the iPad is no big deal because Fujitsu was making tablet computers almost 20 years ago.
    - sprovoost 15y ago
      iPad is most certainly a big deal, but if Apple doesn't keep innovating they won't be half as relevant five years from now when tablets are a commodity. They're already resorting to patents to fight off competition. Dropbox's simplicity is it's own undoing in the long run; it's too easy to commoditize. They'll be forced to lower their price to the cost of storage and that's when Apple and Microsoft will just subsidize their own offerings and kill them, unless a regulator notices it on time. Google is not a good counter example; it seems simple to the user, but as Bing has shown, it's very hard to replicate. Dropbox on the other hand is trivial to clone. Any IPO event would just increase the likeliness of big companies noticing and putting some effort into it.
  - seminal 15y ago
    Facebook too. Can't think of many recent instances where the winner of the early adopters won the space. Netflix?
    - tedunangst 15y ago
      RedHat appears to have won the overpriced linux distro space. Amazon. People think of gmail as a late winner, but the numbers aren't quite there.
- sdizdar 15y ago
  I understand your point. However, it might be that as cloud services become a critical for businesses and individuals will not be going for "free" solutions. Reminds of "Starbucks dilema": wanna a cup of coffee for 50c and have diarrhea or Starbucks coffee for $4? And how hard could be to make a good coffee?

by sdizdar 15y ago

georgemcbay 15y ago

I believe that cloud storage accounts will find widespread usage, I just don't think it is a $5 billion industry. I think it is more something that will exist as a free bonus within some other business model (eg. buy one Amazon album, get many gigs for free, or use Google Docs storage so google can have even more info on you for ad targeting). In short, I think Dropbox got on to something big early on, but they will eventually be like the early Netscape of this area.... Other competitors are pretty much guaranteed to come in and erode their value with "free" (enough) alternatives that exist to prop up other business models.

gruseom 15y ago
Dropbox got on to something big early on Early on? Just the opposite. The space was so saturated that new entries into it were considered a cliche joke. http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2008/05/01.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2008/05/01.html The other great example of successful late entry into a saturated space, of course, is Google.
- georgemcbay 15y ago
  I'm an enthusiastic Live Mesh supporter that has been using Live Mesh from the beginning, so I'm aware that Dropbox (or Mesh for that matter) is not the first way to share files over the Internet, but none of what Joel is talking about in that piece was really both consumer facing and as simple as "run the app and forget about it" back then, so it is basically irrelevant to the value Dropbox (and the current Live Mesh) bring to the table. Claiming the existence of those older services diminishes the value of Dropbox (or current Live Mesh, etc) is like saying that the iPad is no big deal because Fujitsu was making tablet computers almost 20 years ago.
  - sprovoost 15y ago
    iPad is most certainly a big deal, but if Apple doesn't keep innovating they won't be half as relevant five years from now when tablets are a commodity. They're already resorting to patents to fight off competition. Dropbox's simplicity is it's own undoing in the long run; it's too easy to commoditize. They'll be forced to lower their price to the cost of storage and that's when Apple and Microsoft will just subsidize their own offerings and kill them, unless a regulator notices it on time. Google is not a good counter example; it seems simple to the user, but as Bing has shown, it's very hard to replicate. Dropbox on the other hand is trivial to clone. Any IPO event would just increase the likeliness of big companies noticing and putting some effort into it.
- seminal 15y ago
  Facebook too. Can't think of many recent instances where the winner of the early adopters won the space. Netflix?
  - tedunangst 15y ago
    RedHat appears to have won the overpriced linux distro space. Amazon. People think of gmail as a late winner, but the numbers aren't quite there.
sdizdar 15y ago
I understand your point. However, it might be that as cloud services become a critical for businesses and individuals will not be going for "free" solutions. Reminds of "Starbucks dilema": wanna a cup of coffee for 50c and have diarrhea or Starbucks coffee for $4? And how hard could be to make a good coffee?