5 ms·

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued for 11 October 2021

77 points by ag8 5y ago

ag8 5y ago
Auroras visible in Maine! https://twitter.com/13gcorn/status/1447767263613001733/photo/1 https://twitter.com/13gcorn/status/1447767263613001733/photo...
_8j50 5y ago
Will this have any meaningful interference on electronics?
- panarky 5y ago
  Possible power grid fluctuations, especially at higher latitudes. Possible issues with spacecraft. High-frequency radio at high latitudes could fade. Aurora could be visible as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state in the US. (FTFA)
  - grepfru_it 5y ago
    The majority of this one is going to miss us to the north, there will be some cool auroras but M1.6 is not enough to really cause any tangible effects.
- digitallyfree 5y ago
  I wonder if modern power grids and communication systems have been built to be more resillient against large solar storms. There was one in 1989 that knocked out the Quebec power grid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm).
bonyt 5y ago
Is this uncommon? Apparently G2 storms happens 600 times per cycle, where a cycle is 11 years? https://weatherboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GeomagneticStormWarningScale.png https://weatherboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Geomagneti... https://weatherboy.com/g2-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-for-earth-for-october-11/ https://weatherboy.com/g2-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-for...
- TrainedMonkey 5y ago
  I believe vast majority of them don't hit Earth.
  - shoghicp 5y ago
    A storm is categorized by intensity when it hits Earth. It is common, but not an everyday occurrence
fhars 5y ago
When exactly is "around midday" in a NOAA.gov announcement that has a timestamp in UTC and mentions New York to Washington state as affected areas?
- caf 5y ago
  The Australian Space Forecast Centre says: The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on UT day 11 October at around 1700 UT +/- 6 hours.
- zamadatix 5y ago
  For location to matter to that detail they'd need much more precision than "midday". Reasonably they'd need enough certainty to say to the exact hour since Washington and New York are only 1.5 hours offset from the average of each other.
Animats 5y ago
Hasn't come up in the PJM status dashboard, so the northeastern power grid isn't concerned about it. If they were, there would be a geomagnetic disturbance warning listed: Last listed event was back in May: 103172 Warning Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 05.12.2021 08:50 PJM-RTO A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 08:50 on 05.12.2021 through 20:00 on 05.12.2021 . A GMD warning of K-7 or greater is in effect for this period. There was no "Alert", the next stage, so no action was required. That May 12th event produced a minor press release.[1] PJM has more material about this. See pages 25-67 of their training guide for contingencies.[2] This goes into a lot of detail, from how solar wind influences transmission lines to where the sensors for this are to detailed graphs of transformer heating. Useful info for people who work in power stations. ("Noise: 20 dB jump. ‒ It is pretty loud. Myth: Vibrations can destroy a transformer. Vibration a function of GIC; not a big concern.") Trouble is related to geography. Ground conductivity, related to iron deposits, matters. There are maps in that training guide. Only some lines are affected. Most problems can be avoided by changing power routing, which is what the PJM control center in Valley Forge PA does all day. They consider events from G1 to G4 to have minor impact. And, yes, they know all about the Carrington Event and the 1989 event. Which, incidentally, damaged only one transformer but did cause some blackouts. Before getting wound up about this, go read all that material. [1] https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-geomagnetic-disturbance-warning-for-may-12 https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-geomagnetic-disturban... [2] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/training/nerc-certifications/gen-exam-materials-feb-18-2019/training-material/02-generation/7-2-conservative-operations.ashx https://www.pjm.com/-/media/training/nerc-certifications/gen...
- jjk166 5y ago
  Cool, I live in Valley Forge and had no idea they were headquartered here.
aaron695 5y ago
I'll be interesting to watch the pigeon forums the day after. As a rule I don't think the community preps for these.
mnemotronic 5y ago
I think it peaks around 4-5 pm UTC which translates to about noon to 1pm eastern time. G2 is pretty minimal but the WSA-Enlil graphic show some interesting effects when you move the scroll bar manually. The Lasco Coronagraph does too (see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/electric-power-community-dashboard https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/electric-power-communi...)

77 points by ag8 5y ago

ag8 5y ago

Auroras visible in Maine! https://twitter.com/13gcorn/status/1447767263613001733/photo/1 https://twitter.com/13gcorn/status/1447767263613001733/photo...

_8j50 5y ago

Will this have any meaningful interference on electronics?

panarky 5y ago
Possible power grid fluctuations, especially at higher latitudes. Possible issues with spacecraft. High-frequency radio at high latitudes could fade. Aurora could be visible as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state in the US. (FTFA)
- grepfru_it 5y ago
  The majority of this one is going to miss us to the north, there will be some cool auroras but M1.6 is not enough to really cause any tangible effects.
digitallyfree 5y ago
I wonder if modern power grids and communication systems have been built to be more resillient against large solar storms. There was one in 1989 that knocked out the Quebec power grid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm).

bonyt 5y ago

Is this uncommon? Apparently G2 storms happens 600 times per cycle, where a cycle is 11 years? https://weatherboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GeomagneticStormWarningScale.png https://weatherboy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Geomagneti... https://weatherboy.com/g2-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-for-earth-for-october-11/ https://weatherboy.com/g2-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-for...

TrainedMonkey 5y ago
I believe vast majority of them don't hit Earth.
- shoghicp 5y ago
  A storm is categorized by intensity when it hits Earth. It is common, but not an everyday occurrence

fhars 5y ago

When exactly is "around midday" in a NOAA.gov announcement that has a timestamp in UTC and mentions New York to Washington state as affected areas?

caf 5y ago
The Australian Space Forecast Centre says: The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on UT day 11 October at around 1700 UT +/- 6 hours.
zamadatix 5y ago
For location to matter to that detail they'd need much more precision than "midday". Reasonably they'd need enough certainty to say to the exact hour since Washington and New York are only 1.5 hours offset from the average of each other.

Animats 5y ago

Hasn't come up in the PJM status dashboard, so the northeastern power grid isn't concerned about it. If they were, there would be a geomagnetic disturbance warning listed: Last listed event was back in May: 103172 Warning Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 05.12.2021 08:50 PJM-RTO A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 08:50 on 05.12.2021 through 20:00 on 05.12.2021 . A GMD warning of K-7 or greater is in effect for this period. There was no "Alert", the next stage, so no action was required. That May 12th event produced a minor press release.[1] PJM has more material about this. See pages 25-67 of their training guide for contingencies.[2] This goes into a lot of detail, from how solar wind influences transmission lines to where the sensors for this are to detailed graphs of transformer heating. Useful info for people who work in power stations. ("Noise: 20 dB jump. ‒ It is pretty loud. Myth: Vibrations can destroy a transformer. Vibration a function of GIC; not a big concern.") Trouble is related to geography. Ground conductivity, related to iron deposits, matters. There are maps in that training guide. Only some lines are affected. Most problems can be avoided by changing power routing, which is what the PJM control center in Valley Forge PA does all day. They consider events from G1 to G4 to have minor impact. And, yes, they know all about the Carrington Event and the 1989 event. Which, incidentally, damaged only one transformer but did cause some blackouts. Before getting wound up about this, go read all that material. [1] https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-geomagnetic-disturbance-warning-for-may-12 https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-geomagnetic-disturban... [2] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/training/nerc-certifications/gen-exam-materials-feb-18-2019/training-material/02-generation/7-2-conservative-operations.ashx https://www.pjm.com/-/media/training/nerc-certifications/gen...

jjk166 5y ago
Cool, I live in Valley Forge and had no idea they were headquartered here.

aaron695 5y ago

I'll be interesting to watch the pigeon forums the day after. As a rule I don't think the community preps for these.

mnemotronic 5y ago

I think it peaks around 4-5 pm UTC which translates to about noon to 1pm eastern time. G2 is pretty minimal but the WSA-Enlil graphic show some interesting effects when you move the scroll bar manually. The Lasco Coronagraph does too (see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/electric-power-community-dashboard https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/electric-power-communi...)