4 ms·
Your math is wrong, see the birthday paradox. But still, unlikely.
by throwawayay02 5y ago
Your math is wrong, see the birthday paradox. But still, unlikely.
- cupofcoffee 5y agoIt's a back of the envelope calculation. I've a strong intuition that the precise answer isn't too far off.
- labawi 5y agoThe math is monumentally off. It fixates on 5 specific people having issiues, instead of: There exist some 5 loosely connected people that some HN-er heard about, and probably hasn't even met all of them in person, especially the ones that died. The implied qualification of - there exists a HN-er so divide by 1e9 to get odds - is nowhere close to accounting for the additional degrees of freedom from the social graph.