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Sleepwalking to War with China
- simonblack 5y agoIt's not China who wants a war at present. A war would only slow their gradual but inexorable rise to become the world's 'top dog'. On the other hand, the US can not stop China's rise to the top position, except by a war. It's just a matter of arithmetic: China's growth is bigger than the US's growth so there is no way to stop China becoming number one 'top dog' sooner or later. That crossover-point is generally seen as occurring around 2025. That only leaves the US a mere four years or so to prevent that. Why 'prevent' that? It's because of two reinforcing Doctrines - first, the 'Wolfowitz Doctrine' which tries to prevent ANY other nation (or group of nations) from being stronger than the US and that includes not only adversaries like Russia and China but also allies like the EU and the UK. And the second reinforcing Doctrine is the 'Thucydides Trap' It's too late to start a war when the sides are evenly matched if you insist on winning. The war must start at least 5 years before that, when the US is still pretty much invincible. Unfortunately, 5 years before 2025 is 2020. To be certain of winning, the US should have begun hostilities in the 2020 Spring-Summer Campaign season. Oops. That was already 18 months ago. The US has missed its opportunity. By the next Spring-Summer Campaign season, the start will be two whole years behind schedule. I doubt greatly that the US can make up that delay. I see a repeat of Operation Barbarossa, where a projected quick campaign turned out to become a long-term slogging match with the 'underdog' coming out on top at the finish, due to having more military-age population and more manufacturing capacity.