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> “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week"

> “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.

lazide 5y ago
The issue is that Lebanon is not one coherent socio-ethnic-state, rather a loose conglomeration of diametrically opposed and deeply ingrained mostly-religious-fundamentalists (in government/power). There is no coherent Lebanon to really even negotiate with, just a bunch of rabid factions playing off each other. I think it’s actually impossible for ‘Lebanon’ overall to be anyone’s friend without also being their enemy.
- montblanc 5y ago
  Maybe it's best if Lebanon splits up? It's like it's not happening all over the region...
  - lazide 5y ago
    The issue there is, there are also no clear and coherent socio-ethnic borders within the country. Everyone lives mixed in with everyone else (mostly). When other countries historically have ‘solved’ this problem, it ends up being pretty terrible for the minority groups who either have their land seized when they get displaced or get wholesale slaughtered (see partition when India and Pakistan were formed, Bosnia/Herzegovina and the Balkans War, Rwandan genocide, or the active issues in Israel), and in Lebanon EVERYONE is a minority group [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Religious_population_statistics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Reli...]. And if you’re going to say ‘Hey, but Muslims have 60%!’, the current Muslim group are roughly 50/50 Sunni and Shia, which have similar history as Catholics and Protestants - aka they hate each other and have a history of bloody fights. That means each group is actually smaller than the Christians as a whole (who are more like 35-45%), but also larger than any one Christian Sect (which includes said Catholics and Protestants BTw). So for the most part since no one has enough of a majority to assert who belongs where (and it certainly isn’t obvious to everyone else either) or who would be naturally ‘in charge’, it’s endless jockeying for position, extremist recruiting within their groups, corruption to benefit their minority group and screw over the others behind everyone’s back, and the occasional terrorist bombing. Fun times eh?
    - montblanc 5y ago
      > When other countries historically have ‘solved’ this problem, it ends up being pretty terrible for the minority groups It's pretty terrible in Lebanon now as well, and there was a horrible civil war between 1975 - 1990 which could happen again. I'm just saying - yes change could be for the worse, but it's not like things are peachy now. A split up has advantages even if people need to relocate. Cyprus is a pretty good example on how it could work out. Also as horrible as the clusterf** of Bosnia was, it seems the more separated the different ethnicities are the better.
      - lazide 5y ago
        Very well could happen, I wish the regular folks luck as they’re the ones who usually get the worst of it anytime something like that happens. It seems like a Lose-lose proposition to me frankly, they’d be better off (IMO) trying to minimize the divisions and working together as Lebanese instead of all these fragmented groups, but that seems unlikely considering the history.
        montblanc 5y ago
        > they’d be better off (IMO) trying to minimize the divisions and working together as Lebanese instead of all these fragmented groups Yes that would be awesome. But indeed it doesn't seem likely, seems like religion or ethnicity plays a bigger role in that area of the world than nationality.

lazide 5y ago

The issue is that Lebanon is not one coherent socio-ethnic-state, rather a loose conglomeration of diametrically opposed and deeply ingrained mostly-religious-fundamentalists (in government/power). There is no coherent Lebanon to really even negotiate with, just a bunch of rabid factions playing off each other. I think it’s actually impossible for ‘Lebanon’ overall to be anyone’s friend without also being their enemy.

montblanc 5y ago
Maybe it's best if Lebanon splits up? It's like it's not happening all over the region...
- lazide 5y ago
  The issue there is, there are also no clear and coherent socio-ethnic borders within the country. Everyone lives mixed in with everyone else (mostly). When other countries historically have ‘solved’ this problem, it ends up being pretty terrible for the minority groups who either have their land seized when they get displaced or get wholesale slaughtered (see partition when India and Pakistan were formed, Bosnia/Herzegovina and the Balkans War, Rwandan genocide, or the active issues in Israel), and in Lebanon EVERYONE is a minority group [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Religious_population_statistics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Reli...]. And if you’re going to say ‘Hey, but Muslims have 60%!’, the current Muslim group are roughly 50/50 Sunni and Shia, which have similar history as Catholics and Protestants - aka they hate each other and have a history of bloody fights. That means each group is actually smaller than the Christians as a whole (who are more like 35-45%), but also larger than any one Christian Sect (which includes said Catholics and Protestants BTw). So for the most part since no one has enough of a majority to assert who belongs where (and it certainly isn’t obvious to everyone else either) or who would be naturally ‘in charge’, it’s endless jockeying for position, extremist recruiting within their groups, corruption to benefit their minority group and screw over the others behind everyone’s back, and the occasional terrorist bombing. Fun times eh?
  - montblanc 5y ago
    > When other countries historically have ‘solved’ this problem, it ends up being pretty terrible for the minority groups It's pretty terrible in Lebanon now as well, and there was a horrible civil war between 1975 - 1990 which could happen again. I'm just saying - yes change could be for the worse, but it's not like things are peachy now. A split up has advantages even if people need to relocate. Cyprus is a pretty good example on how it could work out. Also as horrible as the clusterf** of Bosnia was, it seems the more separated the different ethnicities are the better.
    - lazide 5y ago
      Very well could happen, I wish the regular folks luck as they’re the ones who usually get the worst of it anytime something like that happens. It seems like a Lose-lose proposition to me frankly, they’d be better off (IMO) trying to minimize the divisions and working together as Lebanese instead of all these fragmented groups, but that seems unlikely considering the history.
      - montblanc 5y ago
        > they’d be better off (IMO) trying to minimize the divisions and working together as Lebanese instead of all these fragmented groups Yes that would be awesome. But indeed it doesn't seem likely, seems like religion or ethnicity plays a bigger role in that area of the world than nationality.