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Because Lebanon is a pawn in the proxy wars between the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. All of them want to help, but only if Lebanon does things "their" wa

Because Lebanon is a pawn in the proxy wars between the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. All of them want to help, but only if Lebanon does things "their" way, and not the "other's" way, and none of "them" will allow the "other" to help. And the IMF says their government is not giving enough concessions. It's all pretty fucked up. Foreign intervention is unlikely without government reform. With traditional donors such as Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom and Persian Gulf nations both hesitant to push money into a corrupt system and also dealing with their own economic problems, Lebanon set its hopes on an International Monetary Fund bailout. But after weeks of discussions, there is no agreement in sight to even begin the negotiations. The U.S, the largest donor to the IMF, wants any bailout to come on the condition that there is a diminution of Hezbollah’s power. The U.S is also the largest donor to the Lebanese army, making for a delicate balancing act. “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week. In an unusual move, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last week that Hezbollah would be open to receiving help from the U.S. despite calling it “an enemy” of Lebanon. Pompeo’s remarks followed Nasrallah’s comments that Lebanon had an opportunity to buy fuel from “a friend called Iran in exchange for Lebanese pounds.” The secretary of state dismissed the claims as “unacceptable”, adding that the U.S. will do everything necessary to stop Iran from sending crude oil anywhere. There is little optimism for the future of the IMF talks, which have not even agreed on the balance of losses, let alone the negotiations and have now been stalled. “The government refuses to implement any reform, any prerequisite the IMF had for even continuing the talks,” said Jad Chaaban, an economist at the American University of Beirut. While the political elite argues without much consensus, the refusal to reform is crushing the Lebanese people. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-inside-lebanon-s-crippling-economic-crisis-n1234005 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-insid... (July 2020)

montblanc 5y ago
> “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.
- lazide 5y ago
  The issue is that Lebanon is not one coherent socio-ethnic-state, rather a loose conglomeration of diametrically opposed and deeply ingrained mostly-religious-fundamentalists (in government/power). There is no coherent Lebanon to really even negotiate with, just a bunch of rabid factions playing off each other. I think it’s actually impossible for ‘Lebanon’ overall to be anyone’s friend without also being their enemy.
  - montblanc 5y ago
    Maybe it's best if Lebanon splits up? It's like it's not happening all over the region...
    - lazide 5y ago
      The issue there is, there are also no clear and coherent socio-ethnic borders within the country. Everyone lives mixed in with everyone else (mostly). When other countries historically have ‘solved’ this problem, it ends up being pretty terrible for the minority groups who either have their land seized when they get displaced or get wholesale slaughtered (see partition when India and Pakistan were formed, Bosnia/Herzegovina and the Balkans War, Rwandan genocide, or the active issues in Israel), and in Lebanon EVERYONE is a minority group [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Religious_population_statistics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Reli...]. And if you’re going to say ‘Hey, but Muslims have 60%!’, the current Muslim group are roughly 50/50 Sunni and Shia, which have similar history as Catholics and Protestants - aka they hate each other and have a history of bloody fights. That means each group is actually smaller than the Christians as a whole (who are more like 35-45%), but also larger than any one Christian Sect (which includes said Catholics and Protestants BTw). So for the most part since no one has enough of a majority to assert who belongs where (and it certainly isn’t obvious to everyone else either) or who would be naturally ‘in charge’, it’s endless jockeying for position, extremist recruiting within their groups, corruption to benefit their minority group and screw over the others behind everyone’s back, and the occasional terrorist bombing. Fun times eh?

montblanc 5y ago

> “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.

lazide 5y ago
The issue is that Lebanon is not one coherent socio-ethnic-state, rather a loose conglomeration of diametrically opposed and deeply ingrained mostly-religious-fundamentalists (in government/power). There is no coherent Lebanon to really even negotiate with, just a bunch of rabid factions playing off each other. I think it’s actually impossible for ‘Lebanon’ overall to be anyone’s friend without also being their enemy.
- montblanc 5y ago
  Maybe it's best if Lebanon splits up? It's like it's not happening all over the region...
  - lazide 5y ago
    The issue there is, there are also no clear and coherent socio-ethnic borders within the country. Everyone lives mixed in with everyone else (mostly). When other countries historically have ‘solved’ this problem, it ends up being pretty terrible for the minority groups who either have their land seized when they get displaced or get wholesale slaughtered (see partition when India and Pakistan were formed, Bosnia/Herzegovina and the Balkans War, Rwandan genocide, or the active issues in Israel), and in Lebanon EVERYONE is a minority group [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Religious_population_statistics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lebanon#Reli...]. And if you’re going to say ‘Hey, but Muslims have 60%!’, the current Muslim group are roughly 50/50 Sunni and Shia, which have similar history as Catholics and Protestants - aka they hate each other and have a history of bloody fights. That means each group is actually smaller than the Christians as a whole (who are more like 35-45%), but also larger than any one Christian Sect (which includes said Catholics and Protestants BTw). So for the most part since no one has enough of a majority to assert who belongs where (and it certainly isn’t obvious to everyone else either) or who would be naturally ‘in charge’, it’s endless jockeying for position, extremist recruiting within their groups, corruption to benefit their minority group and screw over the others behind everyone’s back, and the occasional terrorist bombing. Fun times eh?