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The US and friends are obviously saber rattling das well. They are sending the message that their military will sail through those waters regardless of what Chi

The US and friends are obviously saber rattling das well. They are sending the message that their military will sail through those waters regardless of what China wants. But seriously are you actually arguing that China is not trying to cause fear in Taiwan by its actions? I mean seriously?

dirtyid 5y ago
Reality is Xi hasn't done much to escalate saber rattling across strait, most of the unprecedented ADIZ flights were targeting foreign carriers in the region - trilateral carrier exercises last week in SCS, or just run of mill training. PRC not sending H6s tasked with antiship to Bashi channels to practice sinking TW carriers. PRC hasn't remotely begun exerting military pressure on TW, most the conniptions so far is from PRC growing military capacity organically on modest 2% budget. Eastern Theatre Command isn't going to stop training because TW likes to whine about ADIZ incursions for attention. And PRC isn't going to not intercept these foreign carrier exercises off her coast regardless of SCS geopolitics. It's too close to PRC shores and critically, PRC simply has the capability to intercept US carriers now, it's going to practice using that capability going forward. For those that follow the subject, PRC/Xi has been EXTREMELY gentle on Tsai/DPP not affirming 92 consensus. Most of the signals are status quo. Some tourism and fruit bans are nothing compared to how much TW/US has destabilized the relationship. There's a reason why report in TW suggest people aren't concerned about war, while useful idiot sin the west are losing their minds. Because PRC hasn't saber rattled that much, especially compared to drama in past cross strait crises. If PRC wants to cross the median line and make TW shit bricks, they can, trivially by shelling Kinmen and Matsu again, or test missiles in ROC territorial waters. But right now most ADIZ incursions are either normal training exercises or PRC responding to US carriers spung as PRC threatening TW.
bllguo 5y ago
the Taiwan ADIZ literally extends into mainland China. Taiwan itself admits "violations" are routine. It's a farce that this is getting serious coverage. Yes, someone does want to stoke fear, but who truly benefits if there's an outbreak of war in the region? Hint: it's not China, it's not Taiwan.
- datameta 5y ago
  In a timeline where Russia didn't invade Georgia and Ukraine I'd agree that incursion seems unlikely.

dirtyid 5y ago

Reality is Xi hasn't done much to escalate saber rattling across strait, most of the unprecedented ADIZ flights were targeting foreign carriers in the region - trilateral carrier exercises last week in SCS, or just run of mill training. PRC not sending H6s tasked with antiship to Bashi channels to practice sinking TW carriers. PRC hasn't remotely begun exerting military pressure on TW, most the conniptions so far is from PRC growing military capacity organically on modest 2% budget. Eastern Theatre Command isn't going to stop training because TW likes to whine about ADIZ incursions for attention. And PRC isn't going to not intercept these foreign carrier exercises off her coast regardless of SCS geopolitics. It's too close to PRC shores and critically, PRC simply has the capability to intercept US carriers now, it's going to practice using that capability going forward. For those that follow the subject, PRC/Xi has been EXTREMELY gentle on Tsai/DPP not affirming 92 consensus. Most of the signals are status quo. Some tourism and fruit bans are nothing compared to how much TW/US has destabilized the relationship. There's a reason why report in TW suggest people aren't concerned about war, while useful idiot sin the west are losing their minds. Because PRC hasn't saber rattled that much, especially compared to drama in past cross strait crises. If PRC wants to cross the median line and make TW shit bricks, they can, trivially by shelling Kinmen and Matsu again, or test missiles in ROC territorial waters. But right now most ADIZ incursions are either normal training exercises or PRC responding to US carriers spung as PRC threatening TW.

bllguo 5y ago

the Taiwan ADIZ literally extends into mainland China. Taiwan itself admits "violations" are routine. It's a farce that this is getting serious coverage. Yes, someone does want to stoke fear, but who truly benefits if there's an outbreak of war in the region? Hint: it's not China, it's not Taiwan.

datameta 5y ago
In a timeline where Russia didn't invade Georgia and Ukraine I'd agree that incursion seems unlikely.