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You are saying that sabre-rattling -- e.g. violating Taiwanese airspace, etc., is a tactic to keep people outside China calm? I am confused about how you are g

by rsj_hn 5y ago

You are saying that sabre-rattling -- e.g. violating Taiwanese airspace, etc., is a tactic to keep people outside China calm? I am confused about how you are getting from A to B there. In terms of a hot shooting war with the West or coming to Taiwan's military aid, who knows if anyone would do it? But in terms of seizing all of China's foreign reserve assets and imposing trade embargoes to destroy their economy? You bet people would do it. Without a second thought. It would instantly happen, and would be very bad news to an economy not self-sufficient in either food or energy, and with 40% of their GDP dependent on exports to the West.

mytailorisrich 5y ago
The PRC airforce has not violated Taiwan airspace even if they don't recognize it as such (they may have been shot down if they had crossed that line). They fly within the ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone), which is an arbitrary zone in which the Taiwanese airforce asks aircrafts to identify themselves, but well into international airspace and in a non threatening way (I.e. they fly tangentially at the margin and not straight towards Taiwan).
- CogitoCogito 5y ago
  It’s true that China’s flights have not entered Taiwan territory. But it’s also quite obviously true that the point is to threaten Taiwan. It’s clearly saber rattling.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    This is routine, like the Russians used to do (and still do) North of the UK. If this is saber rattling, then what should be said of the 3 aircraft carriers the US and friends have dispatched to the area? This is highly spun by the media and government agencies.
    - CogitoCogito 5y ago
      The US and friends are obviously saber rattling das well. They are sending the message that their military will sail through those waters regardless of what China wants. But seriously are you actually arguing that China is not trying to cause fear in Taiwan by its actions? I mean seriously?
      - dirtyid 5y ago
        Reality is Xi hasn't done much to escalate saber rattling across strait, most of the unprecedented ADIZ flights were targeting foreign carriers in the region - trilateral carrier exercises last week in SCS, or just run of mill training. PRC not sending H6s tasked with antiship to Bashi channels to practice sinking TW carriers. PRC hasn't remotely begun exerting military pressure on TW, most the conniptions so far is from PRC growing military capacity organically on modest 2% budget. Eastern Theatre Command isn't going to stop training because TW likes to whine about ADIZ incursions for attention. And PRC isn't going to not intercept these foreign carrier exercises off her coast regardless of SCS geopolitics. It's too close to PRC shores and critically, PRC simply has the capability to intercept US carriers now, it's going to practice using that capability going forward. For those that follow the subject, PRC/Xi has been EXTREMELY gentle on Tsai/DPP not affirming 92 consensus. Most of the signals are status quo. Some tourism and fruit bans are nothing compared to how much TW/US has destabilized the relationship. There's a reason why report in TW suggest people aren't concerned about war, while useful idiot sin the west are losing their minds. Because PRC hasn't saber rattled that much, especially compared to drama in past cross strait crises. If PRC wants to cross the median line and make TW shit bricks, they can, trivially by shelling Kinmen and Matsu again, or test missiles in ROC territorial waters. But right now most ADIZ incursions are either normal training exercises or PRC responding to US carriers spung as PRC threatening TW.
      - bllguo 5y ago
        the Taiwan ADIZ literally extends into mainland China. Taiwan itself admits "violations" are routine. It's a farce that this is getting serious coverage. Yes, someone does want to stoke fear, but who truly benefits if there's an outbreak of war in the region? Hint: it's not China, it's not Taiwan.
simonblack 5y ago
Chinese planes have crossed the bottom corner of the Taiwanese ADIZ. NOT Taiwanese airspace. Though that sensationalist report sells more newspapers, doesn't it? An ADIZ has no legal standing, it is only a unilaterally declared area (the Taiwanese ADIZ even covers parts of mainland China). For instance the US does not recognise the Chinese ADIZ and has regularly flown bombers through it. But even the US would not dare to fly a bomber or two through Chinese airspace - the air above the actual Chinese territory and 12 miles out to sea from the coast - without being at risk of those bombers being missiled out of the sky. We saw what happened to Gary Powers when he was sent into Soviet airspace.

by rsj_hn 5y ago

mytailorisrich 5y ago

The PRC airforce has not violated Taiwan airspace even if they don't recognize it as such (they may have been shot down if they had crossed that line). They fly within the ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone), which is an arbitrary zone in which the Taiwanese airforce asks aircrafts to identify themselves, but well into international airspace and in a non threatening way (I.e. they fly tangentially at the margin and not straight towards Taiwan).

CogitoCogito 5y ago
It’s true that China’s flights have not entered Taiwan territory. But it’s also quite obviously true that the point is to threaten Taiwan. It’s clearly saber rattling.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  This is routine, like the Russians used to do (and still do) North of the UK. If this is saber rattling, then what should be said of the 3 aircraft carriers the US and friends have dispatched to the area? This is highly spun by the media and government agencies.
  - CogitoCogito 5y ago
    The US and friends are obviously saber rattling das well. They are sending the message that their military will sail through those waters regardless of what China wants. But seriously are you actually arguing that China is not trying to cause fear in Taiwan by its actions? I mean seriously?
    - dirtyid 5y ago
      Reality is Xi hasn't done much to escalate saber rattling across strait, most of the unprecedented ADIZ flights were targeting foreign carriers in the region - trilateral carrier exercises last week in SCS, or just run of mill training. PRC not sending H6s tasked with antiship to Bashi channels to practice sinking TW carriers. PRC hasn't remotely begun exerting military pressure on TW, most the conniptions so far is from PRC growing military capacity organically on modest 2% budget. Eastern Theatre Command isn't going to stop training because TW likes to whine about ADIZ incursions for attention. And PRC isn't going to not intercept these foreign carrier exercises off her coast regardless of SCS geopolitics. It's too close to PRC shores and critically, PRC simply has the capability to intercept US carriers now, it's going to practice using that capability going forward. For those that follow the subject, PRC/Xi has been EXTREMELY gentle on Tsai/DPP not affirming 92 consensus. Most of the signals are status quo. Some tourism and fruit bans are nothing compared to how much TW/US has destabilized the relationship. There's a reason why report in TW suggest people aren't concerned about war, while useful idiot sin the west are losing their minds. Because PRC hasn't saber rattled that much, especially compared to drama in past cross strait crises. If PRC wants to cross the median line and make TW shit bricks, they can, trivially by shelling Kinmen and Matsu again, or test missiles in ROC territorial waters. But right now most ADIZ incursions are either normal training exercises or PRC responding to US carriers spung as PRC threatening TW.
    - bllguo 5y ago
      the Taiwan ADIZ literally extends into mainland China. Taiwan itself admits "violations" are routine. It's a farce that this is getting serious coverage. Yes, someone does want to stoke fear, but who truly benefits if there's an outbreak of war in the region? Hint: it's not China, it's not Taiwan.

simonblack 5y ago

Chinese planes have crossed the bottom corner of the Taiwanese ADIZ. NOT Taiwanese airspace. Though that sensationalist report sells more newspapers, doesn't it? An ADIZ has no legal standing, it is only a unilaterally declared area (the Taiwanese ADIZ even covers parts of mainland China). For instance the US does not recognise the Chinese ADIZ and has regularly flown bombers through it. But even the US would not dare to fly a bomber or two through Chinese airspace - the air above the actual Chinese territory and 12 miles out to sea from the coast - without being at risk of those bombers being missiled out of the sky. We saw what happened to Gary Powers when he was sent into Soviet airspace.