4 ms·

I've recently been really digging in on China, and the more I read / learn, the less threatening (not evil, the CCP is certainly plenty evil) I perceive them.

• likpok 5y ago
  The classic suggestion of how to solve a large population of restless young men is to invade somewhere. That’s not exactly a comforting thought, even if China is unlikely to invade the US. Certainly China would not be the first country to ramp up nationalism to respond to dissatisfaction at home.
  • anm89 5y ago
    I absolutely think they will and it will be problematic. But that's NK territory. Not superpower we need to be afraid of on equal terms. They are still very different.
    • seniorivn 5y ago
      they certainly played some of their cards right, their positions in solar/semiconductor raw materials markets, their position in a lot of value chains is dominant, they can manipulate world wide markets as long as everyone else operate as if they were just a group of independent market participants contrary to what they are(dictatorship with full control of every strategic move their citizens/companies decide to make a political instead of economic decision) They have enough influence in multiple countries to swing votes in UN, WHO etc. They successfully occupied South China Sea, and built military bases on artificially created islands in strategic points to military expand in the region(as long they have navy capability, and do catch up very quickly) They have very weird situation with their fisherman army, that invades neighboring countries waters and depletes their fishing reserves Their position is a position of North Korea that was allowed to gain position strong enough to cause a lot of damage, and since dictatorships can afford much higher damage without precautions it's not as clear who is in a better position to negotiate/fight
  • xedrac 5y ago
    If Hollywood is to be believed, then about 50% of those young men will be gay and not so unhappy about their situation...
• tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  All of those things could be what makes China dangerous.
• david-gpu 5y ago
  War reduces the number of young men, including single angry young men. I hope that is not how the demographic gap will be resolved, but it is a possibility that weighs heavily in my mind.
  • anm89 5y ago
    Never thought about that angle. I have no doubt that fact has been considered by officials at some point.
    • cwwc 5y ago
      Damn this is scary — you’re both right.
• qqtt 5y ago
  Another interesting historical analogue to the current situation with China is the Soviet Union - who some of us can remember was also poised to massively overtake the American economy at one point. History had other plans and in particular, things like the belts & roads initiative feel like very large echoes of this not-so-distant past. You might say that China has learned the lessons of the failing Soviet Union's plans for expansion and domination, but so too has more democratically focused allies as things like AUUKUS & TPP (with or without USA) can attest. Bloomberg had a good piece about this worth reading https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-08-12/soviet-collapse-echoes-in-china-s-belt-and-road-investment https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-08-12/soviet...
• cwwc 5y ago
  Additionally.. I’ve been thinking that the FL condo collapse scenario will be playing out across China over the next decades (combo of building too fast, with sub par materials, and bribed inspectors). Tho, I do disagree on a macro level with you, I don’t think your points are talked about nary at all.
• aeternum 5y ago
  >the gender imbalance is so severe that there are guaranteed to be 10s of millions of angry single men over the next decades It's crazy to me that the CCP didn't see this as a problem. There must be a reason they let it continue, more male soldiers for a potential war? Thought men were more likely to contribute to the workforce?