5 ms·

This is actually good news, considering the state of China's domestic circumstances. China knows it's not really in a position to start a war with the West, an

by rsj_hn 5y ago

This is actually good news, considering the state of China's domestic circumstances. China knows it's not really in a position to start a war with the West, and so it's trying to gain some of the political benefit of appealing to domestic nationalism without destroying its domestic employment, economy, trade relationships, or overseas wealth as a result of an actual invasion. And it is no secret that this happens whenever China's leadership takes a popularity hit -- most recently with the electricity shortages as a result of their (now suspended) anti-coal push. If China was really going to attack, it would not be sabre rattling like this.

inglor_cz 5y ago
IDK. Argentina has maintained its claim on the Falkland Islands verbally since forever, then in 1982 actually attempted to take them.
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  The Falklands have 2000 fishermen. 1. How much sabre-rattling did Argentina do in the year prior to invasion? Were they flying military planes in Falkland airspace and publicly threatening to invade? 2. While Argentina could reasonably believe that no one cared about the Falklands (and only invaded after it was mistakenly convinced that the UK would not care) this isn't the case for Taiwan. For example, how many billions in military hardware did the UK sell to the inhabitants of the Falkland islands, how many billions in mutual trade occured between the UK and the Falklands, and how many strategic key industries did the Falklands have a leadership position in? What was strength of the pro-Falkland lobby group in British Parliament? It's one thing for Argentina to convince itself that the UK would abandon the Falklands, a different thing for China to convince itself that the West will abandon Taiwan. Moreover China is much more dependent on the rest of the world than Argentina. Argentina can feed itself -- China can't. China can't even keep the lights on without help from Australia.
nix23 5y ago
It's just a tactic to keep the the minds outside china calm (oh look china want's to go the freedom loving way), and heat the minds inside china up (how dare those Taiwanese knock off that peaceful inquiry) and buy a little bit more time to buildup the navy, air-force and army. BTW: I don't believe that anyone would help Taiwan, there is just nothing to win (economically) and that's the really sad point...and china knows it, so does the US, neither the US nor China could win a war against each other...proxy war? Pure waste of money.
- randomopining 5y ago
  Yeah but the Domino Theory is back with Taiwan. If ccp take Taiwan, they will be able to keep expanding and economically swallow other countries and instill their autocratic security apparatus around the world.
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  You are saying that sabre-rattling -- e.g. violating Taiwanese airspace, etc., is a tactic to keep people outside China calm? I am confused about how you are getting from A to B there. In terms of a hot shooting war with the West or coming to Taiwan's military aid, who knows if anyone would do it? But in terms of seizing all of China's foreign reserve assets and imposing trade embargoes to destroy their economy? You bet people would do it. Without a second thought. It would instantly happen, and would be very bad news to an economy not self-sufficient in either food or energy, and with 40% of their GDP dependent on exports to the West.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    The PRC airforce has not violated Taiwan airspace even if they don't recognize it as such (they may have been shot down if they had crossed that line). They fly within the ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone), which is an arbitrary zone in which the Taiwanese airforce asks aircrafts to identify themselves, but well into international airspace and in a non threatening way (I.e. they fly tangentially at the margin and not straight towards Taiwan).
    - CogitoCogito 5y ago
      It’s true that China’s flights have not entered Taiwan territory. But it’s also quite obviously true that the point is to threaten Taiwan. It’s clearly saber rattling.
      - mytailorisrich 5y ago
        This is routine, like the Russians used to do (and still do) North of the UK. If this is saber rattling, then what should be said of the 3 aircraft carriers the US and friends have dispatched to the area? This is highly spun by the media and government agencies.
dirtyid 5y ago
Xi's reiterating boilerplate language on the issue since forever. This has nothing to do with distracting from domestic politics. It's generic status-quo messaging after recent US-Sino talks that reaffirmed One China Policy. Especially timed around PRC national day on Oct 1st and ROC national day on Oct 1th. This is routine not rattling.
bllguo 5y ago
this is really not news at all, it's been obvious that force was not on the table. why are people so content to consume only US sources about these issues? It's clearly the US that has been chomping at the bit for an excuse to start another war
tonfreed 5y ago
The scarier thing is that they also laid claim to the Ryuku islands. Islands that have never been considered Chinese and have been nominally part of the Japanese sphere for 400 years. They also threatened to nuke Japan into unconditional surrender.

by rsj_hn 5y ago

inglor_cz 5y ago

IDK. Argentina has maintained its claim on the Falkland Islands verbally since forever, then in 1982 actually attempted to take them.

rsj_hn 5y ago
The Falklands have 2000 fishermen. 1. How much sabre-rattling did Argentina do in the year prior to invasion? Were they flying military planes in Falkland airspace and publicly threatening to invade? 2. While Argentina could reasonably believe that no one cared about the Falklands (and only invaded after it was mistakenly convinced that the UK would not care) this isn't the case for Taiwan. For example, how many billions in military hardware did the UK sell to the inhabitants of the Falkland islands, how many billions in mutual trade occured between the UK and the Falklands, and how many strategic key industries did the Falklands have a leadership position in? What was strength of the pro-Falkland lobby group in British Parliament? It's one thing for Argentina to convince itself that the UK would abandon the Falklands, a different thing for China to convince itself that the West will abandon Taiwan. Moreover China is much more dependent on the rest of the world than Argentina. Argentina can feed itself -- China can't. China can't even keep the lights on without help from Australia.

nix23 5y ago

It's just a tactic to keep the the minds outside china calm (oh look china want's to go the freedom loving way), and heat the minds inside china up (how dare those Taiwanese knock off that peaceful inquiry) and buy a little bit more time to buildup the navy, air-force and army. BTW: I don't believe that anyone would help Taiwan, there is just nothing to win (economically) and that's the really sad point...and china knows it, so does the US, neither the US nor China could win a war against each other...proxy war? Pure waste of money.

randomopining 5y ago
Yeah but the Domino Theory is back with Taiwan. If ccp take Taiwan, they will be able to keep expanding and economically swallow other countries and instill their autocratic security apparatus around the world.
rsj_hn 5y ago
You are saying that sabre-rattling -- e.g. violating Taiwanese airspace, etc., is a tactic to keep people outside China calm? I am confused about how you are getting from A to B there. In terms of a hot shooting war with the West or coming to Taiwan's military aid, who knows if anyone would do it? But in terms of seizing all of China's foreign reserve assets and imposing trade embargoes to destroy their economy? You bet people would do it. Without a second thought. It would instantly happen, and would be very bad news to an economy not self-sufficient in either food or energy, and with 40% of their GDP dependent on exports to the West.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  The PRC airforce has not violated Taiwan airspace even if they don't recognize it as such (they may have been shot down if they had crossed that line). They fly within the ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone), which is an arbitrary zone in which the Taiwanese airforce asks aircrafts to identify themselves, but well into international airspace and in a non threatening way (I.e. they fly tangentially at the margin and not straight towards Taiwan).
  - CogitoCogito 5y ago
    It’s true that China’s flights have not entered Taiwan territory. But it’s also quite obviously true that the point is to threaten Taiwan. It’s clearly saber rattling.
    - mytailorisrich 5y ago
      This is routine, like the Russians used to do (and still do) North of the UK. If this is saber rattling, then what should be said of the 3 aircraft carriers the US and friends have dispatched to the area? This is highly spun by the media and government agencies.

dirtyid 5y ago

Xi's reiterating boilerplate language on the issue since forever. This has nothing to do with distracting from domestic politics. It's generic status-quo messaging after recent US-Sino talks that reaffirmed One China Policy. Especially timed around PRC national day on Oct 1st and ROC national day on Oct 1th. This is routine not rattling.

bllguo 5y ago

this is really not news at all, it's been obvious that force was not on the table. why are people so content to consume only US sources about these issues? It's clearly the US that has been chomping at the bit for an excuse to start another war

tonfreed 5y ago

The scarier thing is that they also laid claim to the Ryuku islands. Islands that have never been considered Chinese and have been nominally part of the Japanese sphere for 400 years. They also threatened to nuke Japan into unconditional surrender.