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Predicting the future is hard. You were both right. You only have the outcome to judge the decision, not the full probability distribution.
by quickthrower2 5y ago
Predicting the future is hard. You were both right. You only have the outcome to judge the decision, not the full probability distribution.
- superpope99 5y agoThis is so important - it's so hard to gauge what another person's mental model of a scenario is compared to yours. As in - perhaps OP and 40+ year person had the same, accurate mental model of the probability distribution of success, but OP and 40+ had different attitudes towards risk/reward. Or perhaps the OP happened to have a much more realistic picture of the probability of success, and 40+ was unnecessarily pessimistic. So hard to evaluate these things, and to internalise the fact that other people don't have the information you have all the time.
- chaps 5y agoYep! If I wasn't successful, he would have been right and I can't really blame him too much for thinking it his way. The problem was particularly tricky because it combined bunches of distinctly esoteric domains (OCR, text/vector maps, image processing, fuzzy string matching).. recursively. There were no boundary lines and inconsistently sized black redaction boxes. If I hadn't worked on problems in each domain in separate projects, I doubt I would've been able to do it and he had no way of knowing my experience.