5 ms·

COIN has lost 25% since IPO (in that time, GOOG, FB, MSFT, AAPL, HOOD are up, PP is even, and SQ is down marginally), and their offers aren't particularly bette

COIN has lost 25% since IPO (in that time, GOOG, FB, MSFT, AAPL, HOOD are up, PP is even, and SQ is down marginally), and their offers aren't particularly better than <anywhere else>, so it doesn't seem like this is true. Like, even if you think crypto is going to be super relevant, there's tons of other cryto startups. Coinbase has or had first mover advantage, but that's no longer an enormous advantage.

fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
Coinbase’s stock is currently approximately equal to the IPO price and the IPO was six months ago. Coinbase and Robinhood (another rocketship) both experienced a pop after their respective IPOs and later dropped back down near IPO price. This isn’t a particularly relevant metric, in my view. At the IPO, the rocketship factor is already priced in. Look at the company’s trajectory over the decade it has existed.
- joshuamorton 5y ago
  > Look at the company’s trajectory over the decade it has existed. The decade where it wasn't "mission focused"?
- ac29 5y ago
  > Coinbase’s stock is currently approximately equal to the IPO price Coinbase is down a little over 27% since IPO, at a time when the wider US stock market is up around 10%. That's not "approximately equal" in any meaningful way. > At the IPO, the rocketship factor is already priced in. I'll agree with you here - there was a ton of hype and the IPO price was largely based on an expected rocketship trajectory that failed to materialize. Its extremely telling that many of their executives have cashed out 100% or nearly 100% of their available stock options.
jcliff 5y ago
Something that I don't think is widely appreciated enough is that Coinbase Ventures holds chunks of many of these startups.
- notyourwork 5y ago
  Any specifics I should check out?
  - jcliff 5y ago
    well, a partial list of their investments is here: https://ventures.coinbase.com/ https://ventures.coinbase.com/ Some major ones aren't included such as CoinSwitch Kuber which Coinbase Ventures recently co-led a $260M round.
mbesto 5y ago
> there's tons of other cryto startups. Where in your analysis do you talk about how these other crypto startups have (1) easier onboarding/KYC than COIN, (2) access to more coins to trade (3) better tooling (4) better fees (5) etc. etc. ?
- what_ever 5y ago
  Except that the upside is capped by the new Coinbase vesting policy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28808455 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28808455
  - mbesto 5y ago
    And that has nothing to do with the fact that Coinbase as a single entity is vastly more valuable than <insert any other crypto company>.
Cthulhu_ 5y ago
If you got stock for free because you work for coinbase, does it matter much it went down? I mean it's still around $250 each, that quickly adds up. > their offers aren't particularly better than <anywhere else> citation needed, I mean 'anywhere' is a big space. I'm seeing north of $100K on a quick google, that's a lot more than most places pay. Or are you speaking from a privileged, SF-blinkered position?
- joshuamorton 5y ago
  > If you got stock for free because you work for coinbase, does it matter much it went down? I mean it's still around $250 each, that quickly adds up. That's where the "isn't better than other offers" part comes in. If you get 40K in stock from Coinbase or 40K in stock from Robinhood, and one went up and one didn't... > citation needed, I mean 'anywhere' is a big space. I'm seeing north of $100K on a quick google, that's a lot more than most places pay. I'm speaking as compared to the list of stock tickers I listed. > Or are you speaking from a privileged, SF-blinkered position? If we're at the point where Coinbase can't hire "privileged" employees and is having to settle for ones who don't have other options, I think that makes my case for me.
- sciurus 5y ago
  AIUI Coinbase is offering around $400k comp to senior-level engineers now, similar to FAANG.
  - fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
    Correct, and it has more room to grow than FAANG. By that I don’t mean it’s undervalued - but rather that the implied call option you get from a 4-year grant is more valuable.
    - minhazm 5y ago
      They don't do 4 yr grants anymore. You basically get a recurring 1 yr grant, so your upside now is limited to just that year. It trades risk for upside. https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-is-rethinking-its-approach-to-compensation-9aaf7d5d638e https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-is-rethinking-its-app...

fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago

Coinbase’s stock is currently approximately equal to the IPO price and the IPO was six months ago. Coinbase and Robinhood (another rocketship) both experienced a pop after their respective IPOs and later dropped back down near IPO price. This isn’t a particularly relevant metric, in my view. At the IPO, the rocketship factor is already priced in. Look at the company’s trajectory over the decade it has existed.

joshuamorton 5y ago
> Look at the company’s trajectory over the decade it has existed. The decade where it wasn't "mission focused"?
ac29 5y ago
> Coinbase’s stock is currently approximately equal to the IPO price Coinbase is down a little over 27% since IPO, at a time when the wider US stock market is up around 10%. That's not "approximately equal" in any meaningful way. > At the IPO, the rocketship factor is already priced in. I'll agree with you here - there was a ton of hype and the IPO price was largely based on an expected rocketship trajectory that failed to materialize. Its extremely telling that many of their executives have cashed out 100% or nearly 100% of their available stock options.

jcliff 5y ago

Something that I don't think is widely appreciated enough is that Coinbase Ventures holds chunks of many of these startups.

notyourwork 5y ago
Any specifics I should check out?
- jcliff 5y ago
  well, a partial list of their investments is here: https://ventures.coinbase.com/ https://ventures.coinbase.com/ Some major ones aren't included such as CoinSwitch Kuber which Coinbase Ventures recently co-led a $260M round.

mbesto 5y ago

> there's tons of other cryto startups. Where in your analysis do you talk about how these other crypto startups have (1) easier onboarding/KYC than COIN, (2) access to more coins to trade (3) better tooling (4) better fees (5) etc. etc. ?

what_ever 5y ago
Except that the upside is capped by the new Coinbase vesting policy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28808455 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28808455
- mbesto 5y ago
  And that has nothing to do with the fact that Coinbase as a single entity is vastly more valuable than <insert any other crypto company>.

Cthulhu_ 5y ago

If you got stock for free because you work for coinbase, does it matter much it went down? I mean it's still around $250 each, that quickly adds up. > their offers aren't particularly better than <anywhere else> citation needed, I mean 'anywhere' is a big space. I'm seeing north of $100K on a quick google, that's a lot more than most places pay. Or are you speaking from a privileged, SF-blinkered position?

joshuamorton 5y ago
> If you got stock for free because you work for coinbase, does it matter much it went down? I mean it's still around $250 each, that quickly adds up. That's where the "isn't better than other offers" part comes in. If you get 40K in stock from Coinbase or 40K in stock from Robinhood, and one went up and one didn't... > citation needed, I mean 'anywhere' is a big space. I'm seeing north of $100K on a quick google, that's a lot more than most places pay. I'm speaking as compared to the list of stock tickers I listed. > Or are you speaking from a privileged, SF-blinkered position? If we're at the point where Coinbase can't hire "privileged" employees and is having to settle for ones who don't have other options, I think that makes my case for me.
sciurus 5y ago
AIUI Coinbase is offering around $400k comp to senior-level engineers now, similar to FAANG.
- fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
  Correct, and it has more room to grow than FAANG. By that I don’t mean it’s undervalued - but rather that the implied call option you get from a 4-year grant is more valuable.
  - minhazm 5y ago
    They don't do 4 yr grants anymore. You basically get a recurring 1 yr grant, so your upside now is limited to just that year. It trades risk for upside. https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-is-rethinking-its-approach-to-compensation-9aaf7d5d638e https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-is-rethinking-its-app...