4 ms·

There is no "large exodus" of people moving out of California. The number of people moving from San Francisco to Austin in a year is something like 240 househo

by muzz 5y ago

There is no "large exodus" of people moving out of California. The number of people moving from San Francisco to Austin in a year is something like 240 households. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/People-are-leaving-S-F-but-not-for-Austin-or-15955527.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/People-are-leavi...

vmception 5y ago
but there is always the potential for one. get California moving and those emigrants could turn every single state blue starting with every swing county, worth mentioning as the opposite is not true for the opposition party, from a math and distinctly unpartisan perspective.
rcpt 5y ago
California has exploded to the world's 5th largest economy. Surpassing even the UK. Zero growth isn't the right baseline. The fact that the population hasn't boomed means something is definitely wrong.
- roenxi 5y ago
  It doesn't necessarily mean that something is wrong. It might, ironically, mean the state is just slightly hostile to outsiders. Nothing to fault them for if they want to be wealthy and exclusive.
BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
I simply don’t believe SFChronicle here. I live in Texas and I see plenty of California plates on the road. The realtor I work with says Californians are flooding the market with cash. They’re offering 10’s of thousands of dollars over asking price and winning out over local offers.
- bradknowles 5y ago
  I suspect that maybe not many are coming from San Francisco itself, which is only a tiny part of the Bay Area. And maybe not that many are coming from the greater Bay Area. Maybe they’re coming from other parts of California that also has very high cost of housing, like LA.
  - muzz 5y ago
    There's no evidence of this either. The contra-evidence is: https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalExodus-Are-People-Leaving-California.pdf https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalEx...
- bsagdiyev 5y ago
  Agreed. Even in North Carolina I’ve been seeing quite a few CA plates. After we moved in to our neighborhood I noticed another 5/6 parked in different driveways when out on walks. Driving to Cary you see tons of them on the road. People are definitely leaving in a significant number.
- muzz 5y ago
  The data is from the USPS. Sorry if it doesn't match some anecdotes
  - vmception 5y ago
    USPS isnt the canonical whole picture either though, have you talked to actual humans in your physical friend group to extrapolate what others did last year? Many people moved their nexus to their parents house while physically going elsewhere with the uncertainty. USPS data has no way of accounting for that if the physical human being did not tell USPS to forward mail to where they physically were. Anecdotes are a signal to say “look over there and see where the hypothesis goes”, if people havent done that and simply invalidate anecdotes because meme, then the answer is not known And for many questions the data doesn’t exist, just because someone elevated USPS change of address filings as a signal doesn’t mean it is the strongest
  - BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
    Not matching the anecdotes leads me to believe the analysis is probably lacking something. “The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.” -Jeff Bezos Being data driven is not necessarily a bad thing, but the design of the study, the kinds of data collected, and all the other factors that go into how the data is measured need to be considered too. This article about there being no “Californian Exodus” just doesn’t seem true, much in the same way I discount all those reports that say something along the line of “No, crime is actually down in the Bay Area”. Despite people living there saying it’s gotten way worse. The answer probably lies in changing what gets counted as “a crime”, coupled with police not responding to things they used to report, and citizens feeling like it is futile to call the police. But the data would paint the picture that crime is objectively down. But when you apply some other analysis you can see the conclusion is flawed.

by muzz 5y ago

vmception 5y ago

but there is always the potential for one. get California moving and those emigrants could turn every single state blue starting with every swing county, worth mentioning as the opposite is not true for the opposition party, from a math and distinctly unpartisan perspective.

rcpt 5y ago

California has exploded to the world's 5th largest economy. Surpassing even the UK. Zero growth isn't the right baseline. The fact that the population hasn't boomed means something is definitely wrong.

roenxi 5y ago
It doesn't necessarily mean that something is wrong. It might, ironically, mean the state is just slightly hostile to outsiders. Nothing to fault them for if they want to be wealthy and exclusive.

BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago

I simply don’t believe SFChronicle here. I live in Texas and I see plenty of California plates on the road. The realtor I work with says Californians are flooding the market with cash. They’re offering 10’s of thousands of dollars over asking price and winning out over local offers.

bradknowles 5y ago
I suspect that maybe not many are coming from San Francisco itself, which is only a tiny part of the Bay Area. And maybe not that many are coming from the greater Bay Area. Maybe they’re coming from other parts of California that also has very high cost of housing, like LA.
- muzz 5y ago
  There's no evidence of this either. The contra-evidence is: https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalExodus-Are-People-Leaving-California.pdf https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalEx...
bsagdiyev 5y ago
Agreed. Even in North Carolina I’ve been seeing quite a few CA plates. After we moved in to our neighborhood I noticed another 5/6 parked in different driveways when out on walks. Driving to Cary you see tons of them on the road. People are definitely leaving in a significant number.
muzz 5y ago
The data is from the USPS. Sorry if it doesn't match some anecdotes
- vmception 5y ago
  USPS isnt the canonical whole picture either though, have you talked to actual humans in your physical friend group to extrapolate what others did last year? Many people moved their nexus to their parents house while physically going elsewhere with the uncertainty. USPS data has no way of accounting for that if the physical human being did not tell USPS to forward mail to where they physically were. Anecdotes are a signal to say “look over there and see where the hypothesis goes”, if people havent done that and simply invalidate anecdotes because meme, then the answer is not known And for many questions the data doesn’t exist, just because someone elevated USPS change of address filings as a signal doesn’t mean it is the strongest
- BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
  Not matching the anecdotes leads me to believe the analysis is probably lacking something. “The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.” -Jeff Bezos Being data driven is not necessarily a bad thing, but the design of the study, the kinds of data collected, and all the other factors that go into how the data is measured need to be considered too. This article about there being no “Californian Exodus” just doesn’t seem true, much in the same way I discount all those reports that say something along the line of “No, crime is actually down in the Bay Area”. Despite people living there saying it’s gotten way worse. The answer probably lies in changing what gets counted as “a crime”, coupled with police not responding to things they used to report, and citizens feeling like it is futile to call the police. But the data would paint the picture that crime is objectively down. But when you apply some other analysis you can see the conclusion is flawed.