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I don't think we really need to localize this conversation as nowhere can economically manage a large exodus of people from California's 40,000,000 population.
by vmception 5y ago
I don't think we really need to localize this conversation as nowhere can economically manage a large exodus of people from California's 40,000,000 population.
The only thing to remember is that Californians can afford the new area's current housing prices and a decade's worth of price increases.
- TedDoesntTalk 5y agoInflux of Californians raises the local housing prices because they can pay a lot more after selling in California. This has happened and continues to happen in metro Denver and Boise.
- vmception 5y agoYes, correct. Or just having already budgeted for the existing rental prices, or have savings from when their annual compensation was high whether they get to keep that compensation or not in the new place.
- muzz 5y agoThere is no "large exodus" of people moving out of California. The number of people moving from San Francisco to Austin in a year is something like 240 households. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/People-are-leaving-S-F-but-not-for-Austin-or-15955527.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/People-are-leavi...
- vmception 5y agobut there is always the potential for one. get California moving and those emigrants could turn every single state blue starting with every swing county, worth mentioning as the opposite is not true for the opposition party, from a math and distinctly unpartisan perspective.
- rcpt 5y agoCalifornia has exploded to the world's 5th largest economy. Surpassing even the UK. Zero growth isn't the right baseline. The fact that the population hasn't boomed means something is definitely wrong.
- roenxi 5y agoIt doesn't necessarily mean that something is wrong. It might, ironically, mean the state is just slightly hostile to outsiders. Nothing to fault them for if they want to be wealthy and exclusive.
- BuyMyBitcoins 5y agoI simply don’t believe SFChronicle here. I live in Texas and I see plenty of California plates on the road. The realtor I work with says Californians are flooding the market with cash. They’re offering 10’s of thousands of dollars over asking price and winning out over local offers.
- bradknowles 5y agoI suspect that maybe not many are coming from San Francisco itself, which is only a tiny part of the Bay Area. And maybe not that many are coming from the greater Bay Area. Maybe they’re coming from other parts of California that also has very high cost of housing, like LA.
- muzz 5y agoThere's no evidence of this either. The contra-evidence is: https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalExodus-Are-People-Leaving-California.pdf https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalEx...
- bsagdiyev 5y agoAgreed. Even in North Carolina I’ve been seeing quite a few CA plates. After we moved in to our neighborhood I noticed another 5/6 parked in different driveways when out on walks. Driving to Cary you see tons of them on the road. People are definitely leaving in a significant number.
- muzz 5y agoThe data is from the USPS. Sorry if it doesn't match some anecdotes
- vmception 5y agoUSPS isnt the canonical whole picture either though, have you talked to actual humans in your physical friend group to extrapolate what others did last year? Many people moved their nexus to their parents house while physically going elsewhere with the uncertainty. USPS data has no way of accounting for that if the physical human being did not tell USPS to forward mail to where they physically were. Anecdotes are a signal to say “look over there and see where the hypothesis goes”, if people havent done that and simply invalidate anecdotes because meme, then the answer is not known And for many questions the data doesn’t exist, just because someone elevated USPS change of address filings as a signal doesn’t mean it is the strongest