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>In fact (and I don't have a link handy) if you extrapolate out from a few different data sources it looks like Tesla's on AP get in these crashes about half as
by syrrim 5y ago
>In fact (and I don't have a link handy) if you extrapolate out from a few different data sources it looks like Tesla's on AP get in these crashes about half as much as vehicles in the general fleet.
Why use that as a comparison? The obvious confounder would be that people would disable autopilot in poor conditions, making such crashes a priori more likely. The relevant comparison would be Teslas (with and without AP) against a similar class of cars, maybe BMWs.
- ajross 5y agoThat's nitpicking. There's an initial contention: "Teslas hit emergency vehicles frequently", and a simple refutation: "No, they don't, here are some numbers[1]". Your response only makes it "not impossible" that the initial contention is correct, but you have to show numbers to prove that. All we have is a cluster of 13 accidents over 3-4 years, and there are something like thousands of such accidents in the US every year. That's not proof that this is noise and not signal, but the obvious hypothesis is that it's probably noise[2] [1] Which I don't have, though I suppose I could track it down. [2] For the record: I believe it's probably a real bug, but in a product that on the whole is clearly better, so it's well hidden in the noise.
- syrrim 5y agoThe initial contention was that tesla's autopilot was superior to humans, at a specific task. If this were true, it would be very interesting, and represent real progress in the self driving space. Thus I'm interested in whether it's true, and proposed a method by which that might actually be determined.