Cumulative numbers since the beginning of time are kind of meaningless to evaluate risk, though. They can be useful to assess the damage when all is said and d

Cumulative numbers since the beginning of time are kind of meaningless to evaluate risk, though. They can be useful to assess the damage when all is said and done, but risk is about the future and not the past. Also, probabilities should be per unit time, otherwise they go up forever by definition. I think a better assessment of risk comes from the UK data https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... From Table 3, we learn that somebody unvaccinated in their 20's has a chance of 10/100,000 to end up in the hospital over a period of 28 days. So something like .1% per year. Vaccination reduces the risk by a factor of O(10), old age increases it by a factor of O(10). These data refer to a recent snapshot of a 28-day period, and I'd feel safer to assume that the next month looks more like the previous month than March 2020.