5 ms·

~2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k. Deadly car crashes in the US is about 11 deaths per 100k (between 3.3 and 25 when looking at states directly, 18.2 worldwide

by orf 5y ago

~2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k. Deadly car crashes in the US is about 11 deaths per 100k (between 3.3 and 25 when looking at states directly, 18.2 worldwide average). That's not even counting indirect deaths caused by car fumes. So to the person posting the same thing from new accounts about vaccines being a great risk to yourself, I hope you take driving and crossing the road as seriously as you take getting vaccinated because that's faaar more dangerous (especially if you live in Wyoming).

DantesKite 5y ago
The risk profiles are different, since one is multiplicative and one is additive. One car crash won't cause 100,000 car crashes, but an infectious disease can.
- 542458 5y ago
  The post you’re replying to is a bit unclear - it’s talking about the risk of contracting myocarditis, not COVID.
yabones 5y ago
The rate might be higher, but the cluster effect is completely different. If you're in traffic, the only people you can "spread" a car accident to are the other cars around you. But with infectious disease, you have a chance of spreading it to everybody you contact, all day every day. You can't sit near somebody on the bus who transmits car accidents to you. Nor can you get in a car accident because your child caught it from school from a classmate whose parent got it from somebody they work with. Statistically it might make sense, but that's not how the real world works. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- orf 5y ago
  Sure, I agree, but I was referring to 2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k after taking the vaccine. The cluster effect is still different but not as wildly different as comparing rates of COVID per capita to car crashes.
- megablast 5y ago
  > If you're in traffic, the only people you can "spread" a car accident to are the other cars around you. Or pedestrians or cyclists, or anyone that goes near a car. And since roads are everywhere, that is every single person.
blub 5y ago
There’s no connection between car crashes in the US and risk of myocarditis from the vaccine in Sweden. Each country is looking at the risk for its own citizens.
- orf 5y ago
  As I said in the post you're replying to some people commenting here believe that the takeaway from this is that the vaccine is a great risk while interacting with cars daily, which is a far greater risk that they pay no attention to.
  - blub 5y ago
    In that case, another poster already explained why this comparison makes no sense. Vaccination needs to be compared with the lack of vaccination, not with driving, getting out of bed or sky diving. Yes, life has its risks and that's why it's smart to look at the data before you make each individual decisions.
deepnotderp 5y ago
I think it's interesting that your comment is being interpreted as downplaying the risks of covid and is getting anger because of that. An interesting lesson in human psychology.
lliamander 5y ago
That's like saying "War and Peace isn't a big book because it isn't even as big as the smallest car". Yes, both can be measured in the same units (e.g. weight or volume) but that doesn't mean the comparison makes sense. You have to compare things which are in some sense alternatives of each other. The question is not "is the vaccine safer than driving" but "is the vaccine safer than not getting the vaccine?". Sure, if you don't get the vaccine there's a certain risk of getting COVID and subsequently having serious disease (though if you are a young and healthy that risk appears to be relatively low). And certainly the vaccine lowers your risk of getting serious disease (for now) but it doesn't entirely erase that risk. So now you have figure out what the long-term risks of adverse reaction to the vaccine are, plus the long-term risk that you will still get serious COVID disease anyway (due to the narrow immunity provided by the vaccine). For young, healthy people it's not clear to me the vaccine is all that much safer than not getting it. If you can show me, by a breakdown of these risks by age and health, that the I'm wrong and the vaccine is much safer I would be very open to it. As it is, I've tried to find something comprehensive and I cannot.
- im3w1l 5y ago
  I can only speak to myself, but I decided that covid is not a threat to me, and neither is the vaccine (being safer than driving). Hence I would just go with the path of least resistance: take the damn vaccine so people will shut up about it and let me be part of society. Point is that the absolute risk matters too: If it's low enough you can just shrug and do whatever.
  - lliamander 5y ago
    > Hence I would just go with the path of least resistance: take the damn vaccine so people will shut up about it and let me be part of society. Yeah, I'm not inclined acquiesce to irrational demands, and I'm comfortable being in the control group (for now). > Point is that the absolute risk matters too: If it's low enough you can just shrug and do whatever. That's fair.
  - TechBro8615 5y ago
    This is a strange definition of the path of least resistance. Wouldn’t that be doing nothing?
makomk 5y ago
The trouble with myocarditis caused by the mRNA vaccines is that even though the risk is low, for some of the age groups it seems to be higher than the risk of them being hospitalized due to Covid. (A risk which a lot of people seem to overestimate, but that's another story.) So even though they should be more worried about crossing the road than the vaccine, it's also entirely rational for them to consider the vaccine a bigger danger than Covid itself.
- armada651 5y ago
  When comparing risks you need to account for the outcomes. The rare cases of myocarditis are mild and patients made a full recovery. The rare cases of hospitalization due to Covid have much worse outcomes for quality of life than myocarditis, including 3.5k cases of death in the US in that age group. [1] So even if the risks of hospitalization were lower, which is 80 per 100k in that age group [2], it still doesn't make sense to conclude that the vaccine is a bigger danger than Covid. Also don't forget this quote from the article: > The risk of myocarditis is substantially increased for those who contract COVID-19 Given how easily COVID spreads, you'll be exposed to a risk vector for myocarditis whether you get vaccinated or not. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...
- nojokes 5y ago
  Well, it is actually not higher. Definitely not when you take the speed of Delta into account. For example Scotland (as the rest of the UK) did not vaccinate 12-15 year old children. When the school year started, about 10% of this population got infected in 5 weeks. So during first 5 weeks you had 1:10 change of getting COVID-19. About 27:100000 of them got hospitalized when in comparison CDC assumption was 38:100000 in 4 months. So they are wrong as were UK officials. UK started vaccinating 12 year old and older since 20th September. In addition. If you are going to develop myocarditis after vaccine induced immune reaction, changes are that it will happened to you when you get the infection. People are getting it after flu shot but it is given only once so it is not really comparable.

by orf 5y ago

DantesKite 5y ago

The risk profiles are different, since one is multiplicative and one is additive. One car crash won't cause 100,000 car crashes, but an infectious disease can.

542458 5y ago
The post you’re replying to is a bit unclear - it’s talking about the risk of contracting myocarditis, not COVID.

yabones 5y ago

The rate might be higher, but the cluster effect is completely different. If you're in traffic, the only people you can "spread" a car accident to are the other cars around you. But with infectious disease, you have a chance of spreading it to everybody you contact, all day every day. You can't sit near somebody on the bus who transmits car accidents to you. Nor can you get in a car accident because your child caught it from school from a classmate whose parent got it from somebody they work with. Statistically it might make sense, but that's not how the real world works. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

orf 5y ago
Sure, I agree, but I was referring to 2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k after taking the vaccine. The cluster effect is still different but not as wildly different as comparing rates of COVID per capita to car crashes.
megablast 5y ago
> If you're in traffic, the only people you can "spread" a car accident to are the other cars around you. Or pedestrians or cyclists, or anyone that goes near a car. And since roads are everywhere, that is every single person.

blub 5y ago

There’s no connection between car crashes in the US and risk of myocarditis from the vaccine in Sweden. Each country is looking at the risk for its own citizens.

orf 5y ago
As I said in the post you're replying to some people commenting here believe that the takeaway from this is that the vaccine is a great risk while interacting with cars daily, which is a far greater risk that they pay no attention to.
- blub 5y ago
  In that case, another poster already explained why this comparison makes no sense. Vaccination needs to be compared with the lack of vaccination, not with driving, getting out of bed or sky diving. Yes, life has its risks and that's why it's smart to look at the data before you make each individual decisions.

deepnotderp 5y ago

I think it's interesting that your comment is being interpreted as downplaying the risks of covid and is getting anger because of that. An interesting lesson in human psychology.

lliamander 5y ago

That's like saying "War and Peace isn't a big book because it isn't even as big as the smallest car". Yes, both can be measured in the same units (e.g. weight or volume) but that doesn't mean the comparison makes sense. You have to compare things which are in some sense alternatives of each other. The question is not "is the vaccine safer than driving" but "is the vaccine safer than not getting the vaccine?". Sure, if you don't get the vaccine there's a certain risk of getting COVID and subsequently having serious disease (though if you are a young and healthy that risk appears to be relatively low). And certainly the vaccine lowers your risk of getting serious disease (for now) but it doesn't entirely erase that risk. So now you have figure out what the long-term risks of adverse reaction to the vaccine are, plus the long-term risk that you will still get serious COVID disease anyway (due to the narrow immunity provided by the vaccine). For young, healthy people it's not clear to me the vaccine is all that much safer than not getting it. If you can show me, by a breakdown of these risks by age and health, that the I'm wrong and the vaccine is much safer I would be very open to it. As it is, I've tried to find something comprehensive and I cannot.

im3w1l 5y ago
I can only speak to myself, but I decided that covid is not a threat to me, and neither is the vaccine (being safer than driving). Hence I would just go with the path of least resistance: take the damn vaccine so people will shut up about it and let me be part of society. Point is that the absolute risk matters too: If it's low enough you can just shrug and do whatever.
- lliamander 5y ago
  > Hence I would just go with the path of least resistance: take the damn vaccine so people will shut up about it and let me be part of society. Yeah, I'm not inclined acquiesce to irrational demands, and I'm comfortable being in the control group (for now). > Point is that the absolute risk matters too: If it's low enough you can just shrug and do whatever. That's fair.
- TechBro8615 5y ago
  This is a strange definition of the path of least resistance. Wouldn’t that be doing nothing?

makomk 5y ago

The trouble with myocarditis caused by the mRNA vaccines is that even though the risk is low, for some of the age groups it seems to be higher than the risk of them being hospitalized due to Covid. (A risk which a lot of people seem to overestimate, but that's another story.) So even though they should be more worried about crossing the road than the vaccine, it's also entirely rational for them to consider the vaccine a bigger danger than Covid itself.

armada651 5y ago
When comparing risks you need to account for the outcomes. The rare cases of myocarditis are mild and patients made a full recovery. The rare cases of hospitalization due to Covid have much worse outcomes for quality of life than myocarditis, including 3.5k cases of death in the US in that age group. [1] So even if the risks of hospitalization were lower, which is 80 per 100k in that age group [2], it still doesn't make sense to conclude that the vaccine is a bigger danger than Covid. Also don't forget this quote from the article: > The risk of myocarditis is substantially increased for those who contract COVID-19 Given how easily COVID spreads, you'll be exposed to a risk vector for myocarditis whether you get vaccinated or not. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...
nojokes 5y ago
Well, it is actually not higher. Definitely not when you take the speed of Delta into account. For example Scotland (as the rest of the UK) did not vaccinate 12-15 year old children. When the school year started, about 10% of this population got infected in 5 weeks. So during first 5 weeks you had 1:10 change of getting COVID-19. About 27:100000 of them got hospitalized when in comparison CDC assumption was 38:100000 in 4 months. So they are wrong as were UK officials. UK started vaccinating 12 year old and older since 20th September. In addition. If you are going to develop myocarditis after vaccine induced immune reaction, changes are that it will happened to you when you get the infection. People are getting it after flu shot but it is given only once so it is not really comparable.