5 ms·

In sweden, this seems to be the "recommendation" from the government: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2021/oktober/anvandninge

In sweden, this seems to be the "recommendation" from the government: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2021/oktober/anvandningen-av-modernas-vaccin-mot-covid-19-pausas-for-alla-som-ar-fodda-1991-och-senare/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhets... ..which links to https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/covid-19-mrna-vaccinerna-comirnaty-och-spikevax-risk-for-myokardit-och-perikardit https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/covid-19-mrna-vac... ..which in turn seems to point here: https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/4a0b25/globalassets/dokument/nyheter/dhpc/comirnaty-spikevax-dhpc-2021-07-19.pdf https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/4a0b25/globalassets/dokument... ..which references EMA & EES which are European that states "145 cases of myocarditis out of 177M dosis of Comirnaty". Have anyone else found a better source?

mschild 5y ago
Comirnaty is the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine. Spikevax the Moderna one. I dont know Swedish. Does it provide any numbers for Spikevax?
- CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
  only numbers are from july, 19 cases of each *carditis after 20m doses.
  - barney54 5y ago
    But how many doses are in men under 30? That is the right subpopulation to look at, not the entire population.
    - CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
      Ask the Swedes, not me.
- thepasswordis 5y ago
  Can somebody please get moderna and pfizer a new person to come up with these names?
  - pvaldes 5y ago
    All the good names were probably taken yet
  - fomine3 5y ago
    As a result (?), those bad naming help their company name advertised.
bserge 5y ago
I assume that's compared to normal figures (which are what, btw?). Because if normal figures showed 145 cases of myocarditis out of 177M people, that would be embarrassing as fuck.
- jhgb 5y ago
  Apparently there's like two millions of cases of myocarditis globally, so on average you'd probably expect tens of thousands of cases among 177M people. In what way would 145 cases be embarrassing for "normal figures"? I'd expect that a medical miracle would be praised at that point.
  - eyelidlessness 5y ago
    Quite a lot of health impacts globally are unevenly distributed locally. I don’t know the local numbers either, but I’d caution against extrapolating from global numbers.
    - jhgb 5y ago
      According to https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccines-update-ongoing-evaluation-myocarditis-pericarditis https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccines-update-o..., the incidence in Europe should be 1-10 cases per 100k capita per year, which would be ~1800-18000 in a population of 177M.
      - labawi 5y ago
        You're comparing yearly numbers to a one/two shot event. A relevant timeframe needs to be selected, otherwise you may as well use cases/people/hour (0.2 .. 2 case per 177Mp·h) or cases/people/decade (18k..180k cases per (177Mp·decayear)). Article says most cases happen within a few days from second shot. Guesstimating at 5 days, we get 1800..1800/365*5 => 25..250 cases per 177Mp·5d. 145 cases would be around the number of otherwise expected cases, if measured on a population level. Assuming young people have lower incidence rate and it is not already accounted for, there would be more vaccines carditis than natural occurrences (EDIT: during the relevant 5 days after 2nd shot). Still likely less than those expected from covid infection (didn't do math).
jbergstroem 5y ago
Poor English aside; I've been struggling with finding sources. Will share as I find. A message from the Swedish state epidemiologist, as quoted in context (https://tt.omni.se/vaccinering-med-moderna-pausas-for-yngre/a/66Xado https://tt.omni.se/vaccinering-med-moderna-pausas-for-yngre/...): > Det här är väldigt osäkra data från en preliminär studie, så vi har inte pekat på någon särskild nivå. Vi har fått ta del av den här studien från Läkemedelsverket och ser att det finns en skillnad mellan de vaccin som finns tillgängliga och då menar vi att det i nuläget är bättre att vi använder det vaccin där man inte ser de här signalerna, säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell till TT. Translation (my own): These are highly insecure measurements from a preliminary study – there is no established certainty. This study was recieved from Läkemedelsverket [translation: Medical Products Agency] which acknowledges there is a difference between available vaccines. Our opinion is that we currently should use a vaccine where we cannot correlate these types of indications [personal remark: relations to myocarditis], says Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to TT [ref: media]

mschild 5y ago

Comirnaty is the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine. Spikevax the Moderna one. I dont know Swedish. Does it provide any numbers for Spikevax?

CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
only numbers are from july, 19 cases of each *carditis after 20m doses.
- barney54 5y ago
  But how many doses are in men under 30? That is the right subpopulation to look at, not the entire population.
  - CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
    Ask the Swedes, not me.
thepasswordis 5y ago
Can somebody please get moderna and pfizer a new person to come up with these names?
- pvaldes 5y ago
  All the good names were probably taken yet
- fomine3 5y ago
  As a result (?), those bad naming help their company name advertised.

bserge 5y ago

I assume that's compared to normal figures (which are what, btw?). Because if normal figures showed 145 cases of myocarditis out of 177M people, that would be embarrassing as fuck.

jhgb 5y ago
Apparently there's like two millions of cases of myocarditis globally, so on average you'd probably expect tens of thousands of cases among 177M people. In what way would 145 cases be embarrassing for "normal figures"? I'd expect that a medical miracle would be praised at that point.
- eyelidlessness 5y ago
  Quite a lot of health impacts globally are unevenly distributed locally. I don’t know the local numbers either, but I’d caution against extrapolating from global numbers.
  - jhgb 5y ago
    According to https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccines-update-ongoing-evaluation-myocarditis-pericarditis https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccines-update-o..., the incidence in Europe should be 1-10 cases per 100k capita per year, which would be ~1800-18000 in a population of 177M.
    - labawi 5y ago
      You're comparing yearly numbers to a one/two shot event. A relevant timeframe needs to be selected, otherwise you may as well use cases/people/hour (0.2 .. 2 case per 177Mp·h) or cases/people/decade (18k..180k cases per (177Mp·decayear)). Article says most cases happen within a few days from second shot. Guesstimating at 5 days, we get 1800..1800/365*5 => 25..250 cases per 177Mp·5d. 145 cases would be around the number of otherwise expected cases, if measured on a population level. Assuming young people have lower incidence rate and it is not already accounted for, there would be more vaccines carditis than natural occurrences (EDIT: during the relevant 5 days after 2nd shot). Still likely less than those expected from covid infection (didn't do math).

jbergstroem 5y ago

Poor English aside; I've been struggling with finding sources. Will share as I find. A message from the Swedish state epidemiologist, as quoted in context (https://tt.omni.se/vaccinering-med-moderna-pausas-for-yngre/a/66Xado https://tt.omni.se/vaccinering-med-moderna-pausas-for-yngre/...): > Det här är väldigt osäkra data från en preliminär studie, så vi har inte pekat på någon särskild nivå. Vi har fått ta del av den här studien från Läkemedelsverket och ser att det finns en skillnad mellan de vaccin som finns tillgängliga och då menar vi att det i nuläget är bättre att vi använder det vaccin där man inte ser de här signalerna, säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell till TT. Translation (my own): These are highly insecure measurements from a preliminary study – there is no established certainty. This study was recieved from Läkemedelsverket [translation: Medical Products Agency] which acknowledges there is a difference between available vaccines. Our opinion is that we currently should use a vaccine where we cannot correlate these types of indications [personal remark: relations to myocarditis], says Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to TT [ref: media]