3 ms·

Nothing is permanent. I am claiming they will be with us for a long while. Transitory means like a few weeks or months. Not close to a year.

ChrisLomont 5y ago
Things that were short but are not now, a few months after they became short: PPE, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, lumber, cleaning supplies, canned goods, $100 bills, jigsaw puzzles, baking yeast, Nintendo Switch, pool chlorine, condoms..... And a lot of these things were never actually short - just that panicking people hoarded them. Another set were caused by lower COVID demand meant manufacturers didn't place traditional orders, and now that demand is back, they're sitting in lines getting orders filled. All of these things and more faced shortages, yet bounced back.
- iammisc 5y ago
  Okay. Here are more important things that were short then, and are still short: 1. Computer chips, and things that depend on them like cars 2. Labor 3. Groceries (have you seen the stores?) You are talking about trivial items, like baking yeast and jigsaw puzzles, and I'm talking about far-reaching systemic issues, like labor and food.
  - ChrisLomont 5y ago
    Labor is people choosing not to work, because they have better options. That is a plus for people, right? As aid turns off or slows down, I'd expect them to return to work. That shortage is not long term (it has not been short even a year) and is not systemic. If you're claiming food shortages are systemic, then you're using the word wrong. There is no fundamental breakdown in food that will last forever. Delta is shutting down some factories and lines. And there is not a food shortage - there are temporary shortages on some items, and those items rotate in and out. I don't think I've seen a good there yet that is simply gone for months and months. Yes, I have been to the grocery store. The vast majority of food items are still there. When something I want is not on a shelf, I ask, and they say it comes in a few days, so I go back and get it. Ripples on rotating products, when the vast majority are still available, is not what I'd call a "food shortage," unless I simply wanted to be hyperbolic. From how many angles do you want to check your claim? More evidence? If there were large scale shortages, companies selling food should lose noticeable revenue, and you can check their stock prices and revenue statements, and you'll find they are increasing, not decreasing. Chips also are only short for very few categories - I order stuff from Digikey and Mouse nearly every week, and have only hit one chip that not in stock, but it's also a new chip (ESP32-S3). And today, lo and behold, I got some from Digikey. It's the first time I have seen them for sale anywhere. So there's evidence for you that even new chips are popping up. Consumer electronics use about half the world chip supply. Go to a Best Buy and see how many consumer electronic products are still there, and how many are not. Very, very few items are missing. Things that are out are things that were new as COVID hit - new Xbox, PS5, some GPUs (although I have bought 3 3090s during the "chip shortage"), Switches were short (bought 2 - the handheld and TV versions). But not much else I have looked for requiring chips have been short. Cars use about 3000-4000 chips, and any one missing stops a car. I guess that's what make you think there is a much bigger chip shortage overall. There's a tiny few chips that are short. And it's not systemic. So, care to estimate what percentage of chips are not available? What percentage of groceries are not available? It is demonstrable that the labor force participation went from ~63% before COVID, to 60.2% at the lowest in COVID, back up to 61.7% [1]. That sure doesn't seem like there a massive labor drop. I'd guess it climbs back up once Delta is more under control. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

ChrisLomont 5y ago

Things that were short but are not now, a few months after they became short: PPE, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, lumber, cleaning supplies, canned goods, $100 bills, jigsaw puzzles, baking yeast, Nintendo Switch, pool chlorine, condoms..... And a lot of these things were never actually short - just that panicking people hoarded them. Another set were caused by lower COVID demand meant manufacturers didn't place traditional orders, and now that demand is back, they're sitting in lines getting orders filled. All of these things and more faced shortages, yet bounced back.

iammisc 5y ago
Okay. Here are more important things that were short then, and are still short: 1. Computer chips, and things that depend on them like cars 2. Labor 3. Groceries (have you seen the stores?) You are talking about trivial items, like baking yeast and jigsaw puzzles, and I'm talking about far-reaching systemic issues, like labor and food.
- ChrisLomont 5y ago
  Labor is people choosing not to work, because they have better options. That is a plus for people, right? As aid turns off or slows down, I'd expect them to return to work. That shortage is not long term (it has not been short even a year) and is not systemic. If you're claiming food shortages are systemic, then you're using the word wrong. There is no fundamental breakdown in food that will last forever. Delta is shutting down some factories and lines. And there is not a food shortage - there are temporary shortages on some items, and those items rotate in and out. I don't think I've seen a good there yet that is simply gone for months and months. Yes, I have been to the grocery store. The vast majority of food items are still there. When something I want is not on a shelf, I ask, and they say it comes in a few days, so I go back and get it. Ripples on rotating products, when the vast majority are still available, is not what I'd call a "food shortage," unless I simply wanted to be hyperbolic. From how many angles do you want to check your claim? More evidence? If there were large scale shortages, companies selling food should lose noticeable revenue, and you can check their stock prices and revenue statements, and you'll find they are increasing, not decreasing. Chips also are only short for very few categories - I order stuff from Digikey and Mouse nearly every week, and have only hit one chip that not in stock, but it's also a new chip (ESP32-S3). And today, lo and behold, I got some from Digikey. It's the first time I have seen them for sale anywhere. So there's evidence for you that even new chips are popping up. Consumer electronics use about half the world chip supply. Go to a Best Buy and see how many consumer electronic products are still there, and how many are not. Very, very few items are missing. Things that are out are things that were new as COVID hit - new Xbox, PS5, some GPUs (although I have bought 3 3090s during the "chip shortage"), Switches were short (bought 2 - the handheld and TV versions). But not much else I have looked for requiring chips have been short. Cars use about 3000-4000 chips, and any one missing stops a car. I guess that's what make you think there is a much bigger chip shortage overall. There's a tiny few chips that are short. And it's not systemic. So, care to estimate what percentage of chips are not available? What percentage of groceries are not available? It is demonstrable that the labor force participation went from ~63% before COVID, to 60.2% at the lowest in COVID, back up to 61.7% [1]. That sure doesn't seem like there a massive labor drop. I'd guess it climbs back up once Delta is more under control. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART