3 ms·

Do you have some evidence that these local surpluses are making nuclear non-viable? Why wouldn't PG&E say that if it were the case? Given the characteristics of

Do you have some evidence that these local surpluses are making nuclear non-viable? Why wouldn't PG&E say that if it were the case? Given the characteristics of the whole grid, they would have to get very unlucky to have so much wind and solar close to the nuclear plant that it was rendered unnecessary. Edit: Also, renewables in California are dominated by solar. Even if there were a local solar surplus during the day, which again I find pretty unlikely, they'd still need nuclear at night. Are you saying the nuclear plant is right next to an incredibly productive wind farm or something?

Retric 5y ago
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), curtailments of solar generation have increased in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) region. In 2020, CAISO curtailed 1.5 million MWh of utility-scale solar, or 5% of its utility-scale solar production. In other words the grid was unable to accept 5% of all solar power produced in 2020. https://solarenergytea.com/2021/09/08/solar-power-curtailment-continues-to-increase-in-california/ https://solarenergytea.com/2021/09/08/solar-power-curtailmen...
- burkaman 5y ago
  Again, is there any reason to believe this is making nuclear nonviable? Everything you're saying is true, I just don't understand why you think it's connected to the nuclear shutdown. Have you found any articles about nuclear curtailment? Do you think "there is no solar for half the day" is a reasonable point in this discussion? Why wouldn't PG&E brag about the fact that surplus renewables are making nuclear unnecessary if that were true?
  - Retric 5y ago
    > making nuclear nonviable? Not nonviable just less viable. This power plant was already scheduled for decommissioning in 2024 so the specifics are only really relevant to it. It’s really constructing a replacement that’s non viable due to the very long time horizons involved. Back in 2018 only 2% of California’s solar was curtailed, by 2040 it might hit 30+%. > about nuclear curtailment? Keeping Nuclear at steady state it useful so it’s the last to be shut off. Frances nuclear was down at 70% capacity factor where US has generally stayed above 90%, but that doesn’t mean US nuclear is profitable every minute it’s operating. Solar curtailment is a sign of very low local spot electricity prices, thus even if your generating electricity during curtailment it’s likely below the average cost of production. > no solar for half the day Environmentally nuclear is a great nighttime source of electricity, but PG&E only care as about the economic question. As to solar, it’s displacing natural gas which can be used at night or on cloudy days. The economic break even point for solar vs natural gas is roughly 50% curtailment so these trends are going to continue. > making nuclear unnecessary It’s not about nuclear being needed or not as current infrastructure is needed as redundancy if nothing else. More generally PG&E is a legal monopoly with a poor reputation not some hip startup that needs publicity. Their simply not going to talk about complex topics most people on HN have trouble understanding let alone the general public.

Retric 5y ago

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), curtailments of solar generation have increased in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) region. In 2020, CAISO curtailed 1.5 million MWh of utility-scale solar, or 5% of its utility-scale solar production. In other words the grid was unable to accept 5% of all solar power produced in 2020. https://solarenergytea.com/2021/09/08/solar-power-curtailment-continues-to-increase-in-california/ https://solarenergytea.com/2021/09/08/solar-power-curtailmen...

burkaman 5y ago
Again, is there any reason to believe this is making nuclear nonviable? Everything you're saying is true, I just don't understand why you think it's connected to the nuclear shutdown. Have you found any articles about nuclear curtailment? Do you think "there is no solar for half the day" is a reasonable point in this discussion? Why wouldn't PG&E brag about the fact that surplus renewables are making nuclear unnecessary if that were true?
- Retric 5y ago
  > making nuclear nonviable? Not nonviable just less viable. This power plant was already scheduled for decommissioning in 2024 so the specifics are only really relevant to it. It’s really constructing a replacement that’s non viable due to the very long time horizons involved. Back in 2018 only 2% of California’s solar was curtailed, by 2040 it might hit 30+%. > about nuclear curtailment? Keeping Nuclear at steady state it useful so it’s the last to be shut off. Frances nuclear was down at 70% capacity factor where US has generally stayed above 90%, but that doesn’t mean US nuclear is profitable every minute it’s operating. Solar curtailment is a sign of very low local spot electricity prices, thus even if your generating electricity during curtailment it’s likely below the average cost of production. > no solar for half the day Environmentally nuclear is a great nighttime source of electricity, but PG&E only care as about the economic question. As to solar, it’s displacing natural gas which can be used at night or on cloudy days. The economic break even point for solar vs natural gas is roughly 50% curtailment so these trends are going to continue. > making nuclear unnecessary It’s not about nuclear being needed or not as current infrastructure is needed as redundancy if nothing else. More generally PG&E is a legal monopoly with a poor reputation not some hip startup that needs publicity. Their simply not going to talk about complex topics most people on HN have trouble understanding let alone the general public.