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> if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) woul

by dudul 5y ago

> if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off. Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind?

mhh__ 5y ago
Well the data suggests no. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/02/02/britons-would-vote-remain-are-less-sure-about-re-j https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/0... It's "possible" but it's also no where near enough people.
- dudul 5y ago
  The same kind of data we had before the actual vote?
  - mhh__ 5y ago
    Not really. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Unit...
DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
> would have changed their mind? I cannot think of any rational thought process behind voting Remain in 2016 and then hypothetically voting Leave in 2021.
- cm2187 5y ago
  One could be that some of the most absurd predictions of the post Brexit catastrophe never materialized. The FT predicted riots in the streets, queues around the block for the eurostar, the city disappearing, etc. The other is that they wouldn't vote "remain", they would vote "join". There is always a resistance to change.
  - zarzavat 5y ago
    The scenario under discussion was holding the vote in 2021 instead of 2016, not as well. So uk would have still been in EU.
  - youngtaff 5y ago
    We're only just at the start of our adjustment process… 1.3M people are reckoned to have left the UK during the pandemic / post Brexit and don't think they're coming back
- Silhouette 5y ago
  Without wanting to poke a hornet's nest, I think a problem with the Brexit debate all the way through has been the bizarrely black-and-white arguments. If you step back and think about it, the idea that an issue as vast and complex and EU membership would have every single legitimate and well-informed argument pointing in the same direction seems a bit silly. There are plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Remain side before but swung the other way now. The EU has arguably proved several of the major criticisms made by the more reasonable Leave supporters correct since then. There was criticism of the democratic deficit. Now we have Ursula von der Leyen running the show and (figuratively speaking) no-one is quite sure how she got there. There was criticism that the EU was excessively bureaucratic, litigious and slow-moving, and that member states were fair weather friends. Then we saw the handling of the COVID/vaccine and immigration/refugee issues. And the more extreme predictions of British life as we know it coming to an end haven't happened either (at least not because of Brexit). Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side before but now think it was the wrong choice. Several of the major warnings given by the more reasonable Remain supporters have also proved to be well founded, particularly in terms of the immediate consequences of the extra trade barriers and the limitations on free movement of labour. I'm not taking any side here, just pointing out that both sides had legitimate points to make before Brexit that have subsequently proved to be largely correct, and that someone who didn't expect that might have changed their view in light of that information, in either direction. It's perhaps worth remembering that the older generation who voted more in favour of leaving in the Brexit referendum were much the same generation whose younger selves voted to stay in once before. Obviously the nature of what is now the EU had changed a lot in the meantime, and so had the balance of public sentiment within that demographic. It might be surprising if such a large shift had occurred in just a few years now but the basic premise that some people might have changed their minds since voting on Brexit is plausible enough.
  - me_me_me 5y ago
    > Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side I have followed brexit a bit in media and online debates, i have not heard a single good concrete argument for leaving. For brexit arguments were just empty platitudes about freedom, choice and independence, but when asked about specific law that is issue, or what they would do with new freedom, there was always a silence.
razakel 5y ago
>Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind? Maybe if they've suffered a head injury. Brexit is going badly by any metric.

by dudul 5y ago

mhh__ 5y ago

Well the data suggests no. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/02/02/britons-would-vote-remain-are-less-sure-about-re-j https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/0... It's "possible" but it's also no where near enough people.

dudul 5y ago
The same kind of data we had before the actual vote?
- mhh__ 5y ago
  Not really. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Unit...

DaiPlusPlus 5y ago

> would have changed their mind? I cannot think of any rational thought process behind voting Remain in 2016 and then hypothetically voting Leave in 2021.

cm2187 5y ago
One could be that some of the most absurd predictions of the post Brexit catastrophe never materialized. The FT predicted riots in the streets, queues around the block for the eurostar, the city disappearing, etc. The other is that they wouldn't vote "remain", they would vote "join". There is always a resistance to change.
- zarzavat 5y ago
  The scenario under discussion was holding the vote in 2021 instead of 2016, not as well. So uk would have still been in EU.
- youngtaff 5y ago
  We're only just at the start of our adjustment process… 1.3M people are reckoned to have left the UK during the pandemic / post Brexit and don't think they're coming back
Silhouette 5y ago
Without wanting to poke a hornet's nest, I think a problem with the Brexit debate all the way through has been the bizarrely black-and-white arguments. If you step back and think about it, the idea that an issue as vast and complex and EU membership would have every single legitimate and well-informed argument pointing in the same direction seems a bit silly. There are plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Remain side before but swung the other way now. The EU has arguably proved several of the major criticisms made by the more reasonable Leave supporters correct since then. There was criticism of the democratic deficit. Now we have Ursula von der Leyen running the show and (figuratively speaking) no-one is quite sure how she got there. There was criticism that the EU was excessively bureaucratic, litigious and slow-moving, and that member states were fair weather friends. Then we saw the handling of the COVID/vaccine and immigration/refugee issues. And the more extreme predictions of British life as we know it coming to an end haven't happened either (at least not because of Brexit). Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side before but now think it was the wrong choice. Several of the major warnings given by the more reasonable Remain supporters have also proved to be well founded, particularly in terms of the immediate consequences of the extra trade barriers and the limitations on free movement of labour. I'm not taking any side here, just pointing out that both sides had legitimate points to make before Brexit that have subsequently proved to be largely correct, and that someone who didn't expect that might have changed their view in light of that information, in either direction. It's perhaps worth remembering that the older generation who voted more in favour of leaving in the Brexit referendum were much the same generation whose younger selves voted to stay in once before. Obviously the nature of what is now the EU had changed a lot in the meantime, and so had the balance of public sentiment within that demographic. It might be surprising if such a large shift had occurred in just a few years now but the basic premise that some people might have changed their minds since voting on Brexit is plausible enough.
- me_me_me 5y ago
  > Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side I have followed brexit a bit in media and online debates, i have not heard a single good concrete argument for leaving. For brexit arguments were just empty platitudes about freedom, choice and independence, but when asked about specific law that is issue, or what they would do with new freedom, there was always a silence.

razakel 5y ago

>Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind? Maybe if they've suffered a head injury. Brexit is going badly by any metric.