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Depressed "remoaner" here, with my opinions: * Prior to Brexit, I reckon the UK's main selling-point to US and Asian multinationals was that it's a perfect bea

Depressed "remoaner" here, with my opinions: * Prior to Brexit, I reckon the UK's main selling-point to US and Asian multinationals was that it's a perfect beachhead into mainland Europe, namely as everyone speaks English already, so localization (well, localisation) doesn't need to be a concern at-first, and allows companies to test-the-water by marketing locally in the British Isles before expanding into the rest of mainland Europe. * As the UK's regulatory environment was in the EU it meant that getting sign-off from British regulators (again: where language and cultural-barriers won't be an issue) is more straightforward as you don't need to seek regulatory approval in every EU country, only 1. * Extant supply of highly-qualified, if not world-leading, scientists, researchers and engineers and access to its higher-education system - and those researchers and engs would have included more of mainland Europe's best too due to greater academic collaboration within the EU. Post-Brexit: all the UK has is... speaking English, and that's it. Now non-EU companies need to seek regulatory approval in both the EU and UK - and the EU's market is considerably larger. ------ I reckon within a decade the UK will find some way to rejoin the more important parts of the EU in-all-but-name, including (possibly!) even joining Schengen to alleviate all of the issues with labour shortages, tourism, and the rest - as well as seeking de-jure regulatory alignment - because the UK is really not the super-desirable market the Daily Express likes to believe it is. I also sincerely believe the UK will also likely rejoin the EU proper - probably within a generation from now: the age demographics of the leave and remain demographics are stark - it's even been said if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off.

dudul 5y ago
> if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off. Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind?
- mhh__ 5y ago
  Well the data suggests no. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/02/02/britons-would-vote-remain-are-less-sure-about-re-j https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/0... It's "possible" but it's also no where near enough people.
  - dudul 5y ago
    The same kind of data we had before the actual vote?
    - mhh__ 5y ago
      Not really. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Unit...
- DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
  > would have changed their mind? I cannot think of any rational thought process behind voting Remain in 2016 and then hypothetically voting Leave in 2021.
  - cm2187 5y ago
    One could be that some of the most absurd predictions of the post Brexit catastrophe never materialized. The FT predicted riots in the streets, queues around the block for the eurostar, the city disappearing, etc. The other is that they wouldn't vote "remain", they would vote "join". There is always a resistance to change.
    - zarzavat 5y ago
      The scenario under discussion was holding the vote in 2021 instead of 2016, not as well. So uk would have still been in EU.
    - youngtaff 5y ago
      We're only just at the start of our adjustment process… 1.3M people are reckoned to have left the UK during the pandemic / post Brexit and don't think they're coming back
  - Silhouette 5y ago
    Without wanting to poke a hornet's nest, I think a problem with the Brexit debate all the way through has been the bizarrely black-and-white arguments. If you step back and think about it, the idea that an issue as vast and complex and EU membership would have every single legitimate and well-informed argument pointing in the same direction seems a bit silly. There are plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Remain side before but swung the other way now. The EU has arguably proved several of the major criticisms made by the more reasonable Leave supporters correct since then. There was criticism of the democratic deficit. Now we have Ursula von der Leyen running the show and (figuratively speaking) no-one is quite sure how she got there. There was criticism that the EU was excessively bureaucratic, litigious and slow-moving, and that member states were fair weather friends. Then we saw the handling of the COVID/vaccine and immigration/refugee issues. And the more extreme predictions of British life as we know it coming to an end haven't happened either (at least not because of Brexit). Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side before but now think it was the wrong choice. Several of the major warnings given by the more reasonable Remain supporters have also proved to be well founded, particularly in terms of the immediate consequences of the extra trade barriers and the limitations on free movement of labour. I'm not taking any side here, just pointing out that both sides had legitimate points to make before Brexit that have subsequently proved to be largely correct, and that someone who didn't expect that might have changed their view in light of that information, in either direction. It's perhaps worth remembering that the older generation who voted more in favour of leaving in the Brexit referendum were much the same generation whose younger selves voted to stay in once before. Obviously the nature of what is now the EU had changed a lot in the meantime, and so had the balance of public sentiment within that demographic. It might be surprising if such a large shift had occurred in just a few years now but the basic premise that some people might have changed their minds since voting on Brexit is plausible enough.
- razakel 5y ago
  >Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind? Maybe if they've suffered a head injury. Brexit is going badly by any metric.
darkmatterrat 5y ago
> I reckon within a decade the UK will find some way to rejoin the more important parts of the EU in-all-but-name, including (possibly!) even joining Schengen to alleviate all of the issues with labour shortages, tourism, and the rest - as well as seeking de-jure regulatory alignment - because the UK is really not the super-desirable market the Daily Express likes to believe it is. Workers wages have been increasing since Brexit because they can't hire cheap labour from the continent. The Labour shortage will be solved as wages / salaries increase for those jobs and people reskill or move into those jobs as they become more desirable. The problem will solve itself in time. This is already happening. HGV drivers day rate has increased from something like £120 per day to £200. Every short term disruption will be blown out of proportion unfortunately e.g such as the current fuel crisis, the media irresponsible reporting of the situation caused a panic. The actual shortages weren't severe at all. There would have been some disruption, not actual punch ups on petrol station forecourts. > I also sincerely believe the UK will also likely rejoin the EU proper - probably within a generation from now: the age demographics of the leave and remain demographics are stark - it's even been said if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off. It really depends. Most people once the result was decided was supportive of "just getting on with it" from polling I saw. Many people unfortunately have been sold the idea that the only thing that matters is cheap and easy travel, cheap labour and foreign investment and be damned with any other concerns that the older generations understood far better than the younger generation. As people get older their views change. When I was in my 30s I was very pro-EU and globalisation. Now I am quite against it.
cm2187 5y ago
Lots to unpick. On your point about schengen: schengen does nothing to tourism (UK was not part of schenghen and the list of visa free countries for tourism is pretty much the same between Schenghen and the UK) or labour shortage (Schenghen isn’t about your right to work, EU citizens had the right to work in the UK even though the UK wasn’t in schenghen). And the point visa makes it pretty much trivial for well paid engineers to get a work visa in the UK. Where it makes it difficult is for low wage, low skill labour, which will create shortages, but I think that’s by design, whether you think it’s a good idea or not. I don’t think that tariffs would affect CPU much either, I understand it is mostly cars or agricultural products that are deeply affected. Not the least because you can see that the EU is importing most of its CPUs right now, doesn’t seem to be much of a barrier. I wouldn’t bet too much on the demographics helping remain in the long term. By conformism or risk aversion mostly there tends to always be a large mass behind the statu quo (which is why brexit winning was surprising). I think that will play both ways.
- jlokier 5y ago
  > the point visa makes it pretty much trivial for well paid engineers to get a work visa in the UK It's not that simple. Well-paid engineers often have families (spouse/partner, children), and hurdles to bringing in family mean I've seen well-paid engineers come to the UK in recent years, have the visas for their family refused, and so they have to leave.
  - DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
    Also, the UK has a corporate culture that under-values engineering and other technical departments. I'm British but I work here in the US because I literally get paid multiples of what I'd make in the UK doing the exact same work.
    - youngtaff 5y ago
      > I'm British Welsh I suspect too with a name like Dai!
razakel 5y ago
Ireland will play a blinder if they manage to attract UK companies and employees who rely on access to the EU. The Common Travel Area means they can just pack up and go.
nickd2001 5y ago
"I also sincerely believe the UK will also likely rejoin the EU proper" Really? Assuming there's even a UK in future and it hasn't fractured into separate countries, why would the EU ever have us back after the enormous amount of trouble the UK (well England, to be fair) has caused? It only takes 1 EU country to object...
- DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
  > It only takes 1 EU country to object... Plot-twist: it'll be Scotland vetoing England's application to join.
  - nickd2001 5y ago
    Very good point! That'll be an interesting decision for Scots... whether to punish England for hundreds of years of BS, even if it means still a hard border and trade barriers with England. Or maybe just logically they'd think, the UK (really, English people within the UK) caused a bunch of trouble in the EU, why would England rejoining as an individual country be any different. As an English person I really fear for the future, there are forces at work including widespread severe delusions, that could lead to civil unrest, even civil war.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

dudul 5y ago

> if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off. Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind?

mhh__ 5y ago
Well the data suggests no. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/02/02/britons-would-vote-remain-are-less-sure-about-re-j https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/0... It's "possible" but it's also no where near enough people.
- dudul 5y ago
  The same kind of data we had before the actual vote?
  - mhh__ 5y ago
    Not really. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Unit...
DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
> would have changed their mind? I cannot think of any rational thought process behind voting Remain in 2016 and then hypothetically voting Leave in 2021.
- cm2187 5y ago
  One could be that some of the most absurd predictions of the post Brexit catastrophe never materialized. The FT predicted riots in the streets, queues around the block for the eurostar, the city disappearing, etc. The other is that they wouldn't vote "remain", they would vote "join". There is always a resistance to change.
  - zarzavat 5y ago
    The scenario under discussion was holding the vote in 2021 instead of 2016, not as well. So uk would have still been in EU.
  - youngtaff 5y ago
    We're only just at the start of our adjustment process… 1.3M people are reckoned to have left the UK during the pandemic / post Brexit and don't think they're coming back
- Silhouette 5y ago
  Without wanting to poke a hornet's nest, I think a problem with the Brexit debate all the way through has been the bizarrely black-and-white arguments. If you step back and think about it, the idea that an issue as vast and complex and EU membership would have every single legitimate and well-informed argument pointing in the same direction seems a bit silly. There are plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Remain side before but swung the other way now. The EU has arguably proved several of the major criticisms made by the more reasonable Leave supporters correct since then. There was criticism of the democratic deficit. Now we have Ursula von der Leyen running the show and (figuratively speaking) no-one is quite sure how she got there. There was criticism that the EU was excessively bureaucratic, litigious and slow-moving, and that member states were fair weather friends. Then we saw the handling of the COVID/vaccine and immigration/refugee issues. And the more extreme predictions of British life as we know it coming to an end haven't happened either (at least not because of Brexit). Of course, there are also plenty of rational reasons that someone might have come down on the Leave side before but now think it was the wrong choice. Several of the major warnings given by the more reasonable Remain supporters have also proved to be well founded, particularly in terms of the immediate consequences of the extra trade barriers and the limitations on free movement of labour. I'm not taking any side here, just pointing out that both sides had legitimate points to make before Brexit that have subsequently proved to be largely correct, and that someone who didn't expect that might have changed their view in light of that information, in either direction. It's perhaps worth remembering that the older generation who voted more in favour of leaving in the Brexit referendum were much the same generation whose younger selves voted to stay in once before. Obviously the nature of what is now the EU had changed a lot in the meantime, and so had the balance of public sentiment within that demographic. It might be surprising if such a large shift had occurred in just a few years now but the basic premise that some people might have changed their minds since voting on Brexit is plausible enough.
razakel 5y ago
>Isn't it also possible that some remainers, a few years older, would have changed their mind? Maybe if they've suffered a head injury. Brexit is going badly by any metric.

darkmatterrat 5y ago

> I reckon within a decade the UK will find some way to rejoin the more important parts of the EU in-all-but-name, including (possibly!) even joining Schengen to alleviate all of the issues with labour shortages, tourism, and the rest - as well as seeking de-jure regulatory alignment - because the UK is really not the super-desirable market the Daily Express likes to believe it is. Workers wages have been increasing since Brexit because they can't hire cheap labour from the continent. The Labour shortage will be solved as wages / salaries increase for those jobs and people reskill or move into those jobs as they become more desirable. The problem will solve itself in time. This is already happening. HGV drivers day rate has increased from something like £120 per day to £200. Every short term disruption will be blown out of proportion unfortunately e.g such as the current fuel crisis, the media irresponsible reporting of the situation caused a panic. The actual shortages weren't severe at all. There would have been some disruption, not actual punch ups on petrol station forecourts. > I also sincerely believe the UK will also likely rejoin the EU proper - probably within a generation from now: the age demographics of the leave and remain demographics are stark - it's even been said if the Brexit referendum were held 2 years later then remain would have won simply because enough members of older generations (which lean heavily Leave) would have died off. It really depends. Most people once the result was decided was supportive of "just getting on with it" from polling I saw. Many people unfortunately have been sold the idea that the only thing that matters is cheap and easy travel, cheap labour and foreign investment and be damned with any other concerns that the older generations understood far better than the younger generation. As people get older their views change. When I was in my 30s I was very pro-EU and globalisation. Now I am quite against it.

cm2187 5y ago

Lots to unpick. On your point about schengen: schengen does nothing to tourism (UK was not part of schenghen and the list of visa free countries for tourism is pretty much the same between Schenghen and the UK) or labour shortage (Schenghen isn’t about your right to work, EU citizens had the right to work in the UK even though the UK wasn’t in schenghen). And the point visa makes it pretty much trivial for well paid engineers to get a work visa in the UK. Where it makes it difficult is for low wage, low skill labour, which will create shortages, but I think that’s by design, whether you think it’s a good idea or not. I don’t think that tariffs would affect CPU much either, I understand it is mostly cars or agricultural products that are deeply affected. Not the least because you can see that the EU is importing most of its CPUs right now, doesn’t seem to be much of a barrier. I wouldn’t bet too much on the demographics helping remain in the long term. By conformism or risk aversion mostly there tends to always be a large mass behind the statu quo (which is why brexit winning was surprising). I think that will play both ways.

jlokier 5y ago
> the point visa makes it pretty much trivial for well paid engineers to get a work visa in the UK It's not that simple. Well-paid engineers often have families (spouse/partner, children), and hurdles to bringing in family mean I've seen well-paid engineers come to the UK in recent years, have the visas for their family refused, and so they have to leave.
- DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
  Also, the UK has a corporate culture that under-values engineering and other technical departments. I'm British but I work here in the US because I literally get paid multiples of what I'd make in the UK doing the exact same work.
  - youngtaff 5y ago
    > I'm British Welsh I suspect too with a name like Dai!

razakel 5y ago

Ireland will play a blinder if they manage to attract UK companies and employees who rely on access to the EU. The Common Travel Area means they can just pack up and go.

nickd2001 5y ago

"I also sincerely believe the UK will also likely rejoin the EU proper" Really? Assuming there's even a UK in future and it hasn't fractured into separate countries, why would the EU ever have us back after the enormous amount of trouble the UK (well England, to be fair) has caused? It only takes 1 EU country to object...

DaiPlusPlus 5y ago
> It only takes 1 EU country to object... Plot-twist: it'll be Scotland vetoing England's application to join.
- nickd2001 5y ago
  Very good point! That'll be an interesting decision for Scots... whether to punish England for hundreds of years of BS, even if it means still a hard border and trade barriers with England. Or maybe just logically they'd think, the UK (really, English people within the UK) caused a bunch of trouble in the EU, why would England rejoining as an individual country be any different. As an English person I really fear for the future, there are forces at work including widespread severe delusions, that could lead to civil unrest, even civil war.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]